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#Post#: 417195--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Dave23 Date: October 9, 2020, 3:41 pm
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It's going to be an interesting offseason, for sure...bad time
to be a FA...
#Post#: 417196--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: davep Date: October 9, 2020, 4:08 pm
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ArizonaPhil says that he absolutely expects Schwarber to be
non-tendered if they fail to get ANYTHING in a trade. He also
thinks Bryant will be non-tendered, although he is not as
certain of that than of Schwarber.
#Post#: 417200--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: October 9, 2020, 5:42 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=566.msg417196#msg417196
date=1602277708]
ArizonaPhil says that he absolutely expects Schwarber to be
non-tendered if they fail to get ANYTHING in a trade. He also
thinks Bryant will be non-tendered, although he is not as
certain of that than of Schwarber.
[/quote]
That’s not what Phil said about Bryant. Said possible, but not
likely.
This is what he said: “Is it possible that Kris Bryant could
be non-tendered on 12/2? I have thought about it, and I'm not
sure now. It's possible (though not likely).”
Said thinks Cubs will try to trade Bryant.
#Post#: 417204--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: guest405 Date: October 9, 2020, 6:25 pm
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Interesting times.
The norm doesnt apply this offseason.
I still say of the soon to be free agents Baez and Contreras
should be our priorities to resign and build around.
#Post#: 417218--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: davep Date: October 9, 2020, 10:37 pm
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I agree. Also Happ. The rest should be traded for the best
prospects possible. If they can retain Rizzo for a reasonable
amount of years, that would be fine also.
#Post#: 417219--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: guest405 Date: October 9, 2020, 10:40 pm
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Agree Dave.
I thought about Happ after I made the post.
I think I like Happ more than most.
#Post#: 417221--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: craig Date: October 9, 2020, 10:57 pm
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I finally found time to listen to Theo's post-season press
conference.
He didn't talk that much about many specific players.
He wasn't aware of any surgeries or procedures upcoming. Wick
seemed to be about the only guy with an injury, and Theo didn't
understand that to be very lasting, so should be fine for the
spring.
Based on his comments, he appears to be assuming Mills and
Alzolay in the rotation. Spoke pretty positively about Mills
potential to be a long-term starter.
Said they will be looking for some rotation depth; I believe he
referenced depth from "outside".
#Post#: 417223--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: October 9, 2020, 11:18 pm
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As Dave noted earlier, AZ Phil writes that Schwarber is a
virtual lock to be non-tendered if not traded by end of
November.
With the financial picture so unsettled throughout MLB, all bets
are off regarding contracts and payroll. Cubs one of many
clubs, if not all clubs, in that position.
Schwarber is an interesting case. He was really awful in 2020,
so definitely in danger. But, I think it's kind of hard to
evaluate him overall as a contributor. Maybe his salary is
determinative of his status anyway.
Look at the competing WAR methodologies. Schwarber has 2108
career PAs. Add a couple hundred more PAs and it's about four
full seasons of play for a regular.
fWAR has Schwarber at 9.5 career fWAR but bWAR has Schwarber at
a paltry career 5.1 bWAR. That's a really big difference,
probably mostly about different defensive value.
In any case, give Schwarber those additional 200 PAs and fWAR
would have him as a slightly above average regular but bWAR
would have him as a below average regular.
Maybe he's just not a good fit here anymore because of so many
PAs of his that end without a ball in play but this year was a
terrible disappointment after his excellent 2nd half in 2019.
#Post#: 417237--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: craig Date: October 10, 2020, 10:12 am
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Does the Cubs front office care about including a lefty in the
rotation? I don't know. Last year we had three,
Q-Hamels-Lester. But with Darvish-Hendricks-Mills-Alzolay,
those are all righties. They may not care, but I was just
curious.
I don't. I think each game is self-standing, and whether a
lefty or a righty started yesterday has no impact on today.
For much of my youth as a Cubs fan, they didn't successfully
develop good young LH starters, but it seemed common premise by
Cubs GMs that they wanted a lefty rotation guy. So it seems
like for many years they'd try to bring in some experienced
low-stuff veteran lefty, most of whom were relatively
ineffective.
I wonder this because *IF* Theo does want a veteran low-stuff
finesse lefty, I wonder if he might not actually be interested
in bringing Quintana back? Not sure anybody in baseball loves Q
as much as Theo does. Not necessarily many other teams
wanting/needing a 5th starter as badly as Theo does, either,
with so few in-house candidates.
Given Covid finances, Q's decline in stuff, Q's health issues
over recent years, and given Q's actual lack of success over the
last couple of years, I can't imagine there's going to be a huge
market demand for what Q supplies. So, maybe Q is a guy who you
could sign for a really modest short-term deal to fill the back
spot in the rotation?
Theo referenced looking for more "depth" for the rotation, and I
think he referenced from outside the organization. Maybe that
means Q wouldn't fit with that. But might also be that "depth"
is for 6th/7th man type guys. Theo made no specific reference
to getting 5th starter from outside the rotation, just "depth".
So who knows. Maybe Theo's thought is you add some depth guys,
bring in whatever minor league free agents, pitch lab them, and
let Ross just choose and let the best man win. Maybe that's
Colin Rea, maybe it's Tyson Miller, maybe it's some guy coming
back from injury looking for a restart, like Paul Maholm back in
the day. Maybe Cory Abbott or Brailyn Marquez end up winning
that spot, who knows.
Cubs have had little competition for rotation spots or main
starting spots in recent years. "Competition" often means "we
don't have anybody good enough to command the spot", so I'm not
sure I want to wish for it. But it might be fun, in camp at
least, to have some competition and have the fun of hoping some
unproven guy is actually decent.
#Post#: 417240--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: davep Date: October 10, 2020, 10:24 am
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ArizonaPhil speculated that the Front Office may try to bring
back Quintana for 8 million per year, or another lefty for a
similar price. Like you, I am not convinced that a left handed
starter is that important, since most starters work on a five
day rotation, and it is difficult to match a specific lefty
against a specific team that seems to have a weakness in that
direction.
In addition, since starters seldom pitch more than about half a
game, it probably isn't as important as when they were expected
to go 8 or 9 innings.
But I feel the same way about relievers. When facing a left
handed hitter, I would much rather have a good right hander than
a mediocre left hander on the mound.
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