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#Post#: 420927--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 25, 2020, 12:42 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> The comp is good in terms of both mlb, and minor-league OPS.
>
> Minor-league K-rate maybe more favorable for Robles? deeg
mentioned minor-league K-rate, and I think Robles in minors was
a shade lower? Plus in a world where K-rates are higher now,
even in the minors, compared to 20 years ago?
>
> Obviously Corey ended up busting.
>
> It's interesting to consider whether today's scouts and
analytics might have anticipated that better; was his strong
scouting reputation based on "old school" perspectives, and
smart modern scouts wouldn't have projected him so favorably?
Or could perhaps modern hit-labs have helped him to improve and
succeed?
>
> I'm guessing probably not. Modern guys still project
age-based improvement. Corey just never did improve. He never
seemed to get any better than he was as a teenager in Lansing.
As he promoted to higher competition, he was unable to keep up.
And once in the majors, he never really improved there either.
>
> I guess I'm kinda thinking that even though Corey busted, I'd
be shocked if the Cubs were able to trade Bryant's expiring
1-year salary for a prospect with as much perceived ceiling and
scouting favor as Corey had back at age 23. Sometimes prospects
like that make some improvements and adjustments and become
really good major-leaguers.
>
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Corey was promoted pretty aggressively in his minor league
career and I'm sure that hurt him. He went A ball, AA to
majors, AAA majors. Development curves are pretty flat now, so
bascially the early 20's are going to be your best years and
then decline hits around 27 or so.
Corey wasn't really a bust though. He ranks 21 on rWAR for #3
picks, he is an above average result. He just didn't become a
star. In 2003 he had 2.5 fWAR and a .839 OPS in 83 games. 2004
he had a 5 fWAR season and a .771 OPS. He ended up with 10.9
fWAR for his career. He offense got lost in the steroid era.
He was solid, just not a super star. I think that is pretty
comparable to what Robles will be. He's a solid player, but you
can get maybe a slightly less talented version of him as a free
agent pretty cheaply. You could also make it a guy with contact
and that will help to diversify the offense more than what
Robles adds.
#Post#: 420932--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 25, 2020, 3:30 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Corey Patterson through his age 23 season in the majors
> 1167 PA, 22.8% K%, .712 OPS, 2.6 fWAR
> Robles
> 899 PA, 23.5% K%, .727 OPS, 2.5 fWAR
>
> Patterson started minor league ball at 19 in the Midwest
league.
> .949 OPS (Robles at 19 in A ball .864 OPS)
> AA at 20 .829 OPS (Robles .883. after getting to play 1/2 the
year at A+ ball.) Patterson had 47 PA in the majors vs Robles
27 PA
> AAA at 21 .694 OPS in 403 (Robles .742 in 181 PA), Patterson
had 145 PA in the majors vs 66 PA for Robles.
>
> I think the comp is just fine.
>
--- End Quote ---
It depends...because if we use bWAR, you get a very different
outcome and a poor comp.
Robles has 4 career bWAR thru age 23 season and Patterson 1.8
WAR...and Patterson had 25% more PAs. Also, Robles had a 4 WAR
season already—all-star caliber by this metric.
But, the biggest difference is NOW we know how Patterson turned
out. We DON’T know about Robles future. After Patterson’s age 23
season, most were still enthusiastic how Patterson might turn
out and were happy to have him. He was a significant asset.
Hindsight is 20-20, as the saying goes.
And, yes, Craig is right depending how one defines being a
“bust.” Was Patterson a “complete failure?” No, he had the
equivalent of five average seasons and a lot of disappointment.
Was Corey Patterson a “significant disappointment”? Of course he
was. Nobody is looking for that for a #3 pick. If you ask
everybody involved in drafting Patterson plus 100 knowledgable
Cubs fans, nobody is going to say, “oh, he was an average #3
draft pick and that’s fine by me.”
Robles has different issues than Patterson did back then, even
assuming a comp for sake of discussion. Can Robles incorporate
the added muscle into his pre-2020 game going forward? Or, can
he slim down? Was a 60-game season a poor indicator, especially
with a late start to the season? Is he a 4 bWAR player again?
Or, is 2020 his real game?
These are mostly scouting assessments.
#Post#: 420933--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: davep
Date: November 25, 2020, 3:45 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Robles has 23 HR in 797 MLB ABs. Walton had 25 HRs in 1593
ABs. Robles is the same age now that Walton was when he broke
into the majors. Robles is a lottery ticket, but Walton is no
comp.
>
--- End Quote ---
Home runs are not the only measure of power.
#Post#: 420934--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Dihard
Date: November 25, 2020, 8:35 pm
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The talk of Corey Patterson makes me think of watching him get
mercilessly booed after a particularly bad strikeout, something
that was certainly not an uncommon occurrence. The thing that
made it noteworthy, though, was that it was in a game (at Coors)
where the Cubs weren’t the home team.
Ouch.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
#Post#: 420939--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: guest405
Date: November 26, 2020, 7:12 am
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CP was gonna be a stallion until he hurt his knee.
#Post#: 420963--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 27, 2020, 10:03 am
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HTML https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-black-friday-deals-2020
Bryant and Hendricks trade isn’t even the worst trade proposal.
#Post#: 420966--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 27, 2020, 11:36 am
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Sharma has a column juxtaposing Ben Cherington's ascendency
after Theo's departure to Jed Hoyer's. I found this very
encouraging and reassuring regarding his leadership of the Cubs.
HTML https://theathletic.com/2222247/2020/11/27/theo-epstein-jed-hoyer-cubs/?source=dailyemail
#Post#: 420967--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 27, 2020, 11:37 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
>
HTML https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-black-friday-deals-2020
>
> Bryant and Hendricks trade isn’t even the worst trade
proposal.
>
--- End Quote ---
Better than discussing Corey Patterson for more posts.
#Post#: 420969--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 27, 2020, 12:23 pm
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--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> Better than discussing Corey Patterson for more posts.
>
--- End Quote ---
I willing to talk about Chico Walker and Cedrick Landrum if
Corey is too recent.
#Post#: 420985--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Dave23
Date: November 27, 2020, 9:00 pm
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Deeg or Tuffy, or anyone else...any scouting reports on Arihara
and Sugano?
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