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#Post#: 420882--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 24, 2020, 10:55 am
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I get it through my Apple podcast app, but here is a link.
HTML https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/podcasts/cubs-weekly-podcast/
#Post#: 420899--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: davep
Date: November 24, 2020, 4:48 pm
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Whenever look at Robles, I am reminded of Jerome Walton. Great
defense, good contact, good speed on bases, not a lot or power.
And after a good start, increased weight, lost step, less
contact.
Different people, but I always worry about a high speed CF that
gains weight when still young.
#Post#: 420900--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 24, 2020, 5:41 pm
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Robles has flashed way more power than Walton at every level,
including the majors. He may yet turn out to be a bust but
there's no real comp there.
#Post#: 420902--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: davep
Date: November 24, 2020, 6:53 pm
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Their OPSs were virtually identical in the minors, and not much
difference in the majors.
#Post#: 420903--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 24, 2020, 7:41 pm
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Robles has 23 HR in 797 MLB ABs. Walton had 25 HRs in 1593 ABs.
Robles is the same age now that Walton was when he broke into
the majors. Robles is a lottery ticket, but Walton is no comp.
#Post#: 420905--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 24, 2020, 8:13 pm
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Maybe a better comp would be Corey Patterson with less speed and
power and more strike outs.
#Post#: 420907--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: JR
Date: November 24, 2020, 8:38 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Maybe a better comp would be Corey Patterson with less speed
and power and more strike outs.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yikes!
#Post#: 420908--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 24, 2020, 10:00 pm
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Except that Robles has a lower K-rate at both the minors and the
majors than Patterson at this stage of their relative careers,
as well as a higher OPS at both levels despite significantly
more big league ABs at a younger age.
#Post#: 420917--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 25, 2020, 8:29 am
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Except that Robles has a lower K-rate at both the minors and
the majors than Patterson at this stage of their relative
careers, as well as a higher OPS at both levels despite
significantly more big league ABs at a younger age.
>
--- End Quote ---
Corey Patterson through his age 23 season in the majors
1167 PA, 22.8% K%, .712 OPS, 2.6 fWAR
Robles
899 PA, 23.5% K%, .727 OPS, 2.5 fWAR
Patterson started minor league ball at 19 in the Midwest league.
.949 OPS (Robles at 19 in A ball .864 OPS)
AA at 20 .829 OPS (Robles .883. after getting to play 1/2 the
year at A+ ball.) Patterson had 47 PA in the majors vs Robles
27 PA
AAA at 21 .694 OPS in 403 (Robles .742 in 181 PA), Patterson had
145 PA in the majors vs 66 PA for Robles.
I think the comp is just fine.
#Post#: 420925--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
DIR By: craig
Date: November 25, 2020, 12:24 pm
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The comp is good in terms of both mlb, and minor-league OPS.
Minor-league K-rate maybe more favorable for Robles? deeg
mentioned minor-league K-rate, and I think Robles in minors was
a shade lower? Plus in a world where K-rates are higher now,
even in the minors, compared to 20 years ago?
Obviously Corey ended up busting.
It's interesting to consider whether today's scouts and
analytics might have anticipated that better; was his strong
scouting reputation based on "old school" perspectives, and
smart modern scouts wouldn't have projected him so favorably?
Or could perhaps modern hit-labs have helped him to improve and
succeed?
I'm guessing probably not. Modern guys still project age-based
improvement. Corey just never did improve. He never seemed to
get any better than he was as a teenager in Lansing. As he
promoted to higher competition, he was unable to keep up. And
once in the majors, he never really improved there either.
I guess I'm kinda thinking that even though Corey busted, I'd be
shocked if the Cubs were able to trade Bryant's expiring 1-year
salary for a prospect with as much perceived ceiling and
scouting favor as Corey had back at age 23. Sometimes prospects
like that make some improvements and adjustments and become
really good major-leaguers.
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