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#Post#: 420758--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: CUBluejays Date: November 21, 2020, 7:35 am
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He led to the position players in fWAR in 2019 and was above
Baez in 2020.
#Post#: 420763--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: November 21, 2020, 1:27 pm
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ZIPS projects Robles at 3.1 and 3.2 WAR in 2021 and 2022. I’m
sure that assumes a semblance of his 2019 form, which may or may
not happen.
As I said previously, everything about him declined
precipitously in 2020. If the same guy returns, guessing he’ll
be out of baseball in a few seasons.
But, a 4 WAR rookie at a young-age 22 playing an up-the-middle
position (the 2019 Robles) is a valuable guy and the expectation
for 2020 was that he would build on that and get better, not
worse. And, there were extenuating circumstances in 2020, with
his COVID exposure/late start coupled with a short season AND
his having bulked up for 2020 (probably a bad idea).
Showed a lot more in 2019 than Almora has and that’s just a poor
comp. I have no idea which Robles shows up in 2021 and, as I
also said before, not keen about moving out Bryant either.
But, foolish to be so certain about Robles’ fate at this point,
as he is still a big open question. A very difficult scouting
assessment. The 2019 Robles—a 4 WAR young-age rookie—was really
good. That guy I’d be happy to have. Maybe that guy is gone.
We’ll see.
#Post#: 420779--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: CUBluejays Date: November 21, 2020, 7:40 pm
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He was 4 rWAR only because of his defense. He was a 2.5 fWAR
player in 2019. Almora was a 1.1 fWAR player in 2017 with about
half the plate appearances.
Robles exit velocities have been 87.7, 85, 83.3 and 82.6.
Almora’s worst exit velocity was 85.
ZIPS is projecting as a 3 WAR player with .781 and .788 OPS in
2021 and 2022. That is roughly a 40 point improvement over 2019.
I’m guessing that is based off his 2018 and 2019 seasons and
will drop when 2020 is factored in. The Cubs can get a defensive
CF that hits right handed a lot easier than giving up Bryant.
This is Inciarte all over again.
#Post#: 420790--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: November 21, 2020, 10:35 pm
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Inciarte all over again?
After our first discussion about him in 2015, Inciarte
accumulated 10 bWAR over the next three seasons. So, not sure
why you’d want to remind anybody about that.
Regarding Robles exit velocity: you might be unaware that he
bunts a ton, which skews those numbers for him somewhat.
In 2019, Robles had about 30 bunts in play. He loves to bunt—too
much. He’s a career .157 iso hitter and unusual for a guy with
some pop to bunt so much. Even 30 balls in play with minuscule
EV had an impact on that figure.
As I’ve said twice already, Robles in 2021 is very hard to
project. A year ago, he would have been totally unavailable in a
trade as a pre-arb CF coming off a 4 WAR season at age 22 and a
pre-season top 10 overall prospect in baseball. Apparently, you
never liked him and seem to know what’s coming in 2021. Good for
you. I think it’s more complicated than that.
#Post#: 420793--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: November 21, 2020, 11:01 pm
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Tom Tango on “average” exit velocity and bunts:
This is how much of a change in average EV, if we order the
players from most to least affected [graph]. Obviously, the vast
majority are unaffected, since the vast majority does little to
no bunting. But, the bias is huge to the few players who bunt
alot.
#Post#: 420801--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: CUBluejays Date: November 22, 2020, 7:54 am
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Then look at Max Exit Velocity, Almora is at 111.7 mph with
Robles is 110.5 in 2019. They didn’t do it for 2020.
2017 he bunted 2, 2018 3, 2019 25, 2020 5 times.
Kolton Wong and Adam Eaton have similar or more bunts in
2019/2020 and have 3-4 mph higher average exit velocities.
Noted power hitter Hanser Alberto has a similar number of bunts
to Robles and has a similar EV.
#Post#: 420806--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: November 22, 2020, 12:37 pm
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You should listen to Tango who says he rarely bothers with
“average” exit velocity and that the bias is “huge” for guys who
bunt a lot, like Robles. For some guys, average EV is just a
meaningless stat. Yet, this the third time you’ve brought it up
now. What you should be saying is: “thanks for pointing out that
Robles bunts a ton, I didn’t know that.” Instead, you double up
on a point that one of the leading analysts tells you has a huge
bias contrary to the very point you’re making.
You cite 2017 and 2018 but Robles had only 93 PAs in 2017 and
2018 COMBINED. Five bunts in play for that many PAs is a ton.
Ditto for 2019. A ton of bunts. And, as to 2020, I’ve gone into
great detail that the entirety of 2020 was a disaster for
Robles. No sugar coating.
Now you’re citing Hanser Alberto??? Hey, man, you’re getting
into Rudy Giuliani territory.
#Post#: 420808--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: craig Date: November 22, 2020, 3:04 pm
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I'm not involved in the Robles discussion. I have some tangent
thoughts or questions:
1. I don't think the existing Cubs are going to compete for the
World Series.
2. Cubs are challenged offensively. *IF* you trade for a
prospect, I'd prefer a good upside offensively, rather than a
bat-limited defense-first guy.
3. To get to WS-level, the Cubs need to create talent. That
may require risk/scouting/luck. They're going to need guys
(plural) to emerge as unpredictably good, both within the
organization and guys they pick up from outside. If guys do no
more than what they can be predicted to do, we aren't going to
win. I don't think Robles is the guy to want, but I they'll
need to take chances and hit on guys who they think might play
much better future than they have recently.
#Post#: 420809--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Reb Date: November 22, 2020, 3:32 pm
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Think it’s debatable whether or not Robles is worthy of trading
for. As I’ve said, very hard to assess what’s in store for him
going forward and he was bad in 2020.
But, back in the days when I could go to major league games, got
to see Robles quite a bit at Nats Park and the pre-2020 version
of Robles is a player you’d want. He was not just a defensive
player but was a guy with some offensive pop: .164 iso, 37
doubles/triples, 16 homers—-as a speedy 22 year old rookie. Had
offensive upside.
Just think it’s foolish to dismiss Robles because of exit
velocity, which is not useful as to Robles.
As I’ve also said, not keen on trading Bryant. Hope there is a
way to re-sign him. But, there seems to be a wave of thought
otherwise and guys with many years of control and who were 4 WAR
players as a rookie ought to be considered, based on scouting
assessments. I trust Cubs to have the means to assess properly,
although would be an educated guess at best.
#Post#: 420812--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '21
By: Ron Date: November 22, 2020, 4:00 pm
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The Mooney and Sharma have a really fun article on Theo and his
pals.
HTML https://theathletic.com/2213397/2020/11/22/theo-epstein-cubs-glory-days/
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