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#Post#: 406561--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Reb
Date: June 12, 2020, 1:09 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
>
> .....The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first
when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease,
Steele, Davis, and Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely
though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and
over and expecting a different result. When Epstein contract is
up I hope they go after the D-Backs leadership.
>
--- End Quote ---
Because of the wipeout of so many games due to the virus, this
was a tough draft to assess HS pitchers especially.
Way, way more college pitchers drafted than HS pitchers. 20 HS
pitchers taken, total, so less than one per club. Cubs took
one. (55 college/JUCO pitchers).
So, if you like the Howard pick and wanted a HS pitcher early,
this was not really the draft to do that.
Obviously, Cubs like the 2nd round reliever they took-- a lot.
I'm not willing to render much of an opinion about that because
none of us have any clue whether that will work out. All I know
is that he's not really the type of pitcher that the Cubs have
done such a poor job drafting in recent drafts.
Also, he could be a somewhat underslot signing that will permit
them to sign the 5th round HS pitcher. Doesn't seem like the
picks at 1, 3, 4 necessarily are going to be underslots.
#Post#: 406562--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: guest61
Date: June 12, 2020, 1:54 am
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I like the first two picks and Little.
#Post#: 406565--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 12, 2020, 7:53 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> It's a new scouting boss, and a restructured development
system. I'm just going to hope that their analysis can see
untapped potential, and can recognize correctible mechanical
issues; and that they have the development process to bring the
best out of some highly imperfect prospects who have some loud
tools.
> *Burl and Little are big-time wild; but both are big-time
fast. Let's see if the development can get more out of them
than in past from Steele or Hudson or Blackburn or Zastrysny or
Stinnett or Carson Sands.
> *Moreno is a nice projectable prospect, but barely got over 90
last year. Let's see if maturation and development turns him
into a solid competitive fastball to go with other qualities; or
if he's always velocity-short.
>
> Absolutely true that once again, they didn't even try with
rotation pitching. They haven't spent on international pitchers
for years, they didn't try this draft, they didn't in the
Hoerner draft, and if you believe Jensen and McAvene last year
are relievers not starters, then they didn't try last draft
either.
>
> I kind of figure that if you hit on a 4th or 2nd rounder and
Little or Lang end up being quality power-lefty relievers in the
majors, though, I'm not going to complain "what bad picks, we
should have gotten good rotation starters, but all we got from
2nd and 4th round were two excellent relievers". But yeah,
sooner or later SOMEBODY needs to start.
>
> Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, and Prietto in the first 5
rounds. Sands, Steele, Cease, all million-dollar guys. Bryan
Hudson, Darryl Wilson, million-dolllar guys or close, right?
Estrada got a million, and Velasquez was high-ceililng. Davis
and Kohl look good, plus Roederer was that year. So they've
taken some HS upside guys and signed a number of millionish
guys. They just haven't worked that well prior to Davis and
maybe Kohl.
>
> Not sure it's philosophy, I think it's probably just
case-by-case scouting and developing. Derek Johnson just loved
Stinnett. Oops. McLeod and somebody really loves Zastryzny,
and they loved Carson Sands. Oh well.
>
--- End Quote ---
It isn’t about just taking high schoolers. A lot of the guys you
mentioned like Blackburn, Hudson, Prieto, etc... didn’t have a
high ceiling. They Cubs have very rarely targeted players like
that and when they do they’ve had good results. They aren’t all
going to hit, but even if it is a 10% rate it will beat the Cubs
strategy of giving up ceiling for floor and consistently getting
neither. Burl is just a reworked package of what the Cubs have
been doing for nearly a decade now with nothing to show for it.
The Cubs spent 40% of their picks on wild lefty relievers with
good stuff. The Cubs have done a pretty good job of finding guys
like as minor league free agents, trades, waiver claims, etc.
I like the Little pick. Burl doesn’t upset a ton. Nwago is
interesting, but when you combine them together as a draft class
it just doesn’t do much for me.
#Post#: 406568--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 8:50 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
> ....A lot of the guys you mentioned like Blackburn, Hudson,
Prieto, etc... didn’t have a high ceiling....
--- End Quote ---
You may be right. But I wonder if that isn't partly hindsight?
*Hudson was a long, young guy, reported as already low-90's,
viewed as being super projectible. Randy-Johnson upside
comments at the time. Get all of his levers coordinated and
optimized and he's got high-90's projection with a deadly curve.
Except with all of that length and projection, he never added
one mph to his velocity, and if anything lost some in the pros.
Brailyn has added 10-15 mph; Hudson lost a couple. Maybe good
scouting would have realized in advance; and maybe good
development would have helped him find an extra 6 mph, I don't
know. But I think the ceiling was at least perceived to be
there, at first.
*Steele, had good upside. and has added some velocity. Had all
the athleticism that gave him the high-ceiling to become
coordinated and pitch with control; none of that ceiling was
realized. Wildman, big-league stuff but no location.
*Estrada, as HS junior throwing mid-90's, 1st-round projection,
plenty high ceiling. Well then he regressed as a senior in
every way, but the high ceiling was still assumed to be in
there. But so far, nothing.
*Little, supposedly super high-ceiling curve, and was reported
to be throwing mid-90's, with projection to add more; he was
projected as a plenty high-ceiling guy. Again, that projection
didn't happen, instead the real guy was a handful of mph slower,
and rather than sustain velocity and get faster, his velocity is
much less than the scouting reports reported.
*Blackburn: Slender, projectible guy, had supposedly added 5
mph and was throwing 93-94 in spring, with projection for more,
to go with command and curveball. Seemingly plenty of
ceiling... Until the real guy ended up throwing 88-90 instead
of 93-94, and never added anything.
*Underwood, already said to be throwing 99 in high school. I
think there was perceived to be plenty of ceiling. Obviously
not as fast as a pro, and never gained consistency or command.
*Trevor Clifton, another guy with big-ceiling reports, high 90's
in HS.
You may be right, maybe they never had ceiling. But it seems to
me this is perhaps either a hindsight thing? You get some
projectible guys, and some explode, some it never happens.
Roger Clemens added 10-15 mph after his draft summer. Angel
Guzman, Carlos Zambrano, Juan Cruz, those guys added tons of
velocity after their early pro years. Brailyn, high 80's has
touched 93, now he touches 100. We've had no shortage of
high-80's touches 93-94, but few have gone Brailyn.
Not sure how much of that is: 1) luck . 2) scouting and
projection, and 3) development? Maybe if Blackburn and Hudson
had been in driveline, analytics would have figured things out
and they'd have added 5 mph? But the Cubs just didn't have the
analytics or development system to help them? Or the good
teachers who could persuade them to make the needed adjustments
and the ability to explain exactly what needed to be done and
how? Or maybe it was largely the scouting? Maybe smarter
scouting can say "he's 90-93 now, and his breaking ball is
erratic; but look at XYZ in his delivery. If he strengthens
these muscles, does this kind of throwing to strengthen his arm,
adjusts his arm slot in such a way, adjusts his stride and
weight-transfer in ways XYZ, and if we can get him in pitch lab
quantifying each throw so he can get locked into doing it right,
he's got an extra 6 mph waiting to be untapped, and with better
control, and much better spin on pitches X and Y? And maybe
smarter scouting can look at Blackburn and say, "guys, I know
he's young, but his delivery is already as efficient as it can
get. There's nothing more to get out of it. Hudson may be
tall, but there aren't another 7 mph untapped; there's no Randy
Johnson in there, his shoulder is already too tight, and as he
matures physically it's going to get worse, not better...."
Beats me.
#Post#: 406569--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: June 12, 2020, 9:08 am
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Bleacher Report likes the Cub draft:
HTML https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2895870-2020-mlb-draft-results-easy-to-view-grades-for-each-franchise
#Post#: 406570--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 12, 2020, 9:15 am
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Hudson was a sinker guy with a curve. 10 years ago he’s probably
a stud, but there pitching/hitting changed. Guys adding
velocity can happen, but is random. Somebody like Marquez did
and Hudson didn’t.
A lot of the guys you are mentioning like Clifton, Franklin are
later round picks that didn’t require a huge bonus. You can’t
just take high upside guys, but the Cubs don’t do it enough.
Every draft should have a few.
Here’s another comp for Burl. Jacob Lindgren. He was the best
reliever in college, a lefty with 2 plus pitches and
questionable command and he was going to be quick to the majors.
He was taken by the Yankees at 2.14 in 2014. Reached the majors
for 7 IP in 2015 and because of injuries that is the entirety of
his major league career so far.
#Post#: 406571--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 9:51 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> ...Burl is just a reworked package of what the Cubs have been
doing for nearly a decade now with nothing to show for it.
>
> The Cubs spent 40% of their picks on wild lefty relievers with
good stuff. The Cubs have done a pretty good job of finding guys
like as minor league free agents, trades, waiver claims, etc.
>
> I like the Little pick. Burl doesn’t upset a ton. Nwago is
interesting, but when you combine them together as a draft class
it just doesn’t do much for me.
>
--- End Quote ---
You're likely to be correct. Not a lot of 2nd-3rd-4th rounders
turn into much; I assume with little spring scouting it's harder
yet; and with Kantrovitz being new and largely working with
inherited scouts from a bad scouting system, the odds aren't
great.
But I'm not sure I quite get the Burl as "reworked package"
concept?
What I see as common: he's a flawed prospect who will need to
both improve significantly relative to his flaws, and who will
need to have his assets outweigh his flaws. That is true with
probably any 2nd round pick or later, nobody is perfect, nobody
is ready, and anybody taken after 50 is going to need to get
better in some way, probably ways plural.
Keegan Thompson: add some velocity, hope command and
pitchability makes good velocity unnecessary. Abbott: slider
needs to be so good that he doesn't need average velocity, and
probably also needs to add some velo. Brennen Davis: needs to
mature physically and add strength, but also needs to almost
completely restructure his swing. McAvene: need to sustain the
velocity, and fix his command, or else have his stuff be so
electric that even with sub-average command he's still good.
Everybody needs to fix something or add something, often both.
In that regard, sure Burl and Little fall within that umbrella.
Difference: Where I see Burl being a somewhat different package
is that I don't think he needs to add anything; it's strictly
about "fixing" with him. The stuff is obviously already there.
That was NOT true with Keegan or Zastryzny or Paul Richan. So
it's a different deal. Not sure it's any easier. "Pitch lab"
is all the buzz, of course; but it's not totally new, and "pitch
lab" didn't fix Edwards or Maples or Underwood (at least, not
yet....). So maybe "analytics" and "development" will fix it;
but kinda doubtful.
Little, maybe kinda similar? 100-mph velocity is a pretty good
place to start, you don't need to add more there. Adjust the
arm slot, play with the grip, get some different spin, and
hopefully the location gets more consistent.
The hitter, too; he doesn't need to mature into power. Power,
bat-speed, exit-velo, those are already present. But probably a
whole lot of "fixing" to his swing to enable those attributes to
come out more often. I'm still a skeptic that you can "hitting
Lab" or "develop" a guy into being able to hit.
But in a sense it seems to me to be a pretty audacious, perhaps
almost arrogant, confidence that your analytics and labs can
"fix" these guys, guys with big talents but big flaws. Should
be kind of if they can find some success.
Tangent note: It may also be that the "great stuff" and awesome
velocity that Burl and Little have, that those are kinda
fraudulent? Throwing for the speed-gun is one thing; throwing
to get a batter out is different. In the video, Burl's delivery
seems totally wild and all-out. Wouldn't surprise me if they
didn't work with him to refine his delivery; but that a
smoother, more controlled delivery that could throw strikes more
consistently might be 4 mph slower, or whatever. As always
"maxing at" and "touching" is always different from normal
pitching velocity.
Derek Johnson had everybody throw within a variety of velocity
ranges; them instructed them to *not* throw in their highest
range, instead wanting them to throw within a range where they
could throw with control and consistency, and without arm
strain. Obviously the high-end listings for Burl and Little are
not descriptive of their control+consistency ranges.
#Post#: 406573--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 12, 2020, 9:57 am
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My issue with the Cubs draft for a long time is they typically
sacrifice ceiling for a better floor. The previous way they did
was they took pitch-ability college starters, see almost all of
their pitching picks when Theo was been in charge of this. Burl
is a strict reliever, with good stuff that it supposed to be
close to the majors. It is just a different way of sacrificing
ceiling for what is thought to be a better floor.
#Post#: 406574--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Bennett
Date: June 12, 2020, 9:57 am
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[img]
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaR3DpfXQAIqu17?format=jpg&name=medium[/img]
#Post#: 406576--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 12, 2020, 11:02 am
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Cubs top 10 picks under Theo
2019- 3 HS, 5 college pitchers
2018- 3 HS, 3 college pitchers
2017- 2 HS, 7 college pitchers
2016- 7 college pitchers
2015- 2 HS, 5 college pitchers
2014- 3 HS, 5 college pitchers,
2013-1 HS, 6 college pitchers
2012- 5 HS , 4 college ptichers
35 college pitchers and only 4 have reached the majors, none
higher than 2 fWAR in their career so far.
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