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#Post#: 406550--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: CUBluejays Date: June 11, 2020, 10:13 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=562.msg406540#msg406540
date=1591929016]
Little is a raw 19 year old with poor control and Burl is the
top pure reliever in the draft (and perhaps close to the
majors), so not surprising that the latter drafted higher.
But, the point is a report that Little has a “above-average”
slider with bite—-that contradicts notion of “no secondary
stuff.”
Maybe you saw Little pitch on a day that BA is unaware of.
[/quote]
Fangrapghs, Law, McDaniel and MLB pipeline all disagree with
BA’s description of an above average slider, but I forgot only
BA matters to you. That doesn’t really matter though, because
the Cubs have done well with tweaking breaking balls recently.
I’m more worried about syncing up his devlivery to make his
control passable.
So what if Burl is the best college reliever and closest to
majors. The last 2 years there have been 3 college relievers
that have had 10 saves in a major league season. Being the best
college reliever doesn’t guarantee success. He still has a
violent delivery with control issues that won’t go away.
#Post#: 406552--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Ron Date: June 11, 2020, 11:00 pm
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Luke Little video.
HTML https://twitter.com/i/status/1271246264248795137
#Post#: 406553--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Dave23 Date: June 11, 2020, 11:02 pm
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Nationals took former Cubs draftee Mitchell Parker in the 5th
round.
He had 2 scary great seasons at San Jac...
#Post#: 406554--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Reb Date: June 11, 2020, 11:23 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=562.msg406550#msg406550
date=1591931610]
Fangrapghs, Law, McDaniel and MLB pipeline all disagree with
BA’s description of an above average slider, but I forgot only
BA matters to you. That doesn’t really matter though, because
the Cubs have done well with tweaking breaking balls recently.
I’m more worried about syncing up his devlivery to make his
control passable.
So what if Burl is the best college reliever and closest to
majors. The last 2 years there have been 3 college relievers
that have had 10 saves in a major league season. Being the best
college reliever doesn’t guarantee success. He still has a
violent delivery with control issues that won’t go away.
[/quote]
You said Little has “no secondary stuff.”
Just admit that’s an exaggeration. You don’t like drafting
relievers, fine, but I have yet to see you quote any analyst who
said he has no secondary stuff.
Fangraphs said slider “flashes above,” BA says slider “above
average,” and Pipeline says secondaries “have made progress” and
need more work.
Can’t find anything by Law and McDaniel weighing in on his
secondaries, so please link that as you read something from them
and you wouldn’t just make up something I’m sure.
Obviously, the guy is a work in progress. What 19 year-old
pitcher isn’t?
Cubs went for upside in this draft. I like that. Most of the
Cubs pitch draft misfires of recent years have been pitchability
guys without big velocity and/or secondary stuff emphasis. Cubs
could have taken a pitcher-approved-by-you in first round, but
opted for position player with upside that even you approve. So,
after that, just take the prospect the evaluators like the most,
irrespective of position—-seems to me.
Maybe Cubs will still sign some $20,000 SPs that you can
approve. Could be a few interesting pitchers out there after a
5-round draft.
#Post#: 406555--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: craig Date: June 11, 2020, 11:43 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=562.msg406544#msg406544
date=1591929457]...To me this draft is just a typical Cubs
draft. The did great in the first round and then after that it
was kinda like I guess.
The need starting pitching and it is the strength of the draft
and they don’t take anybody until the 5th round. ...
The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the
go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis,
and Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it
is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over
...[/quote]
It's a new scouting boss, and a restructured development system.
I'm just going to hope that their analysis can see untapped
potential, and can recognize correctible mechanical issues; and
that they have the development process to bring the best out of
some highly imperfect prospects who have some loud tools.
*Burl and Little are big-time wild; but both are big-time fast.
Let's see if the development can get more out of them than in
past from Steele or Hudson or Blackburn or Zastrysny or Stinnett
or Carson Sands.
*Moreno is a nice projectable prospect, but barely got over 90
last year. Let's see if maturation and development turns him
into a solid competitive fastball to go with other qualities; or
if he's always velocity-short.
Absolutely true that once again, they didn't even try with
rotation pitching. They haven't spent on international pitchers
for years, they didn't try this draft, they didn't in the
Hoerner draft, and if you believe Jensen and McAvene last year
are relievers not starters, then they didn't try last draft
either.
I kind of figure that if you hit on a 4th or 2nd rounder and
Little or Lang end up being quality power-lefty relievers in the
majors, though, I'm not going to complain "what bad picks, we
should have gotten good rotation starters, but all we got from
2nd and 4th round were two excellent relievers". But yeah,
sooner or later SOMEBODY needs to start.
Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, and Prietto in the first 5 rounds.
Sands, Steele, Cease, all million-dollar guys. Bryan Hudson,
Darryl Wilson, million-dolllar guys or close, right? Estrada
got a million, and Velasquez was high-ceililng. Davis and Kohl
look good, plus Roederer was that year. So they've taken some
HS upside guys and signed a number of millionish guys. They
just haven't worked that well prior to Davis and maybe Kohl.
Not sure it's philosophy, I think it's probably just
case-by-case scouting and developing. Derek Johnson just loved
Stinnett. Oops. McLeod and somebody really loves Zastryzny,
and they loved Carson Sands. Oh well.
#Post#: 406556--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Reb Date: June 11, 2020, 11:58 pm
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BA Carlos Collazo favorite picks of day 2:
RHP Koen Moreno, Cubs (147): If Moreno had more of a chance to
pitch this spring, I think it’s likely the Cubs wouldn’t have
had a shot to take him at No. 147. Every time Moreno pitches, it
seems like he takes a step forward, as was the case for him the
entirety of last summer. He oozes athleticism, is an
exceptionally gifted mover over the rubber, has a lean and
projectable frame and we haven’t even talked about his stuff
yet. His fastball has ranged from 87-93 for the most part, but
that velocity has steadily climbed and he should be throwing an
above-average fastball soon. Pair that with advanced feel for an
81-85 mph changeup that has swing-and-miss qualities and
terrific natural ability to spin a breaking ball, and he has all
the traits you’re looking for.
#Post#: 406557--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Reb Date: June 12, 2020, 12:25 am
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Regarding Cubs signing international pitchers, Cubs signed what
some considered the top international pitcher in the 2018
signing period, Richard Gallardo.
Longenhagen says he has peaked already, so looks like that
hasn't panned out. Cubs were also hurt by two consecutive years
recently when they were prohibited from signing anybody for over
$300,000 (except from Mexico, with clubs getting most of the
bonus). In any case, it's a very poor record, obviously.
#Post#: 406558--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Reb Date: June 12, 2020, 12:36 am
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Cubs have drafted tons of pitching in recent drafts. Just
unsuccessfully. To say the least.
2019- rounds 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9.
2018- rounds 2, 4, 6
2017- 7 of the first 8 picks were pitchers
2016- 13 of first 14 picks were pitchers (!)
2015- rounds 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Seems like beginning in 2019, Cubs more interested in velocity
than in years past. Well, something wasn't working right.
Really hurt that the two first round pitchers in 2017 were
stiffs. Both guys were secondary pitch oriented guys. Some
analysts said these guys had the two best curves in the draft.
Don't think that I want more college pitchers like that.
And, really hard to identify HS pitchers in the high rounds.
In any case, Cubs have done a bad job drafting pitchers, which
is the most obvious thing anybody can say about the Cubs.
But, can see why they are trying to take a different approach
with the kind of pitchers they're drafting lately.
#Post#: 406559--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Reb Date: June 12, 2020, 12:44 am
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I get it that folks don't get excited about drafting
reliever-types.
And, the analysts that we read always downgrade pitching
prospects who project as relievers. Get that. They throw a lot
fewer innings than starters. They rack up fewer WAR totals.
But, if your bullpen sucks, you are going to go crazy. Nats
didn't start to move up last year until the bullpen got a lot
better. There are more relievers in every pen than ever before.
The high velocity guys are relievers, as a group. Bullpens are
pitching more and more innings in the aggregate than ever
before.
So, I'm not averse to developing power relievers, if that's part
of the Cubs new pitching plan.
Yes, it's a significant problem if you're not drafting and
developing SPs. Just draft and develop better pitchers. Draft
talent, no matter the role. And, develop it.
#Post#: 406560--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
By: Deeg Date: June 12, 2020, 12:48 am
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I like Howard and Moreno, less thrilled with the ones
in-between. We'll see.
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