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#Post#: 407477--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 25, 2020, 2:23 pm
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Thanks, Bennett, that's really interesting. I'd figured they'd
all just go slot, and Moreno would just college the overage.
But that's a pretty big overslot bonus for him, that puts him
only a little behind Carraway. I hadn't actually anticipated
that Carraway was going to go sub-slot. Kind of glad the Cubs
worked it that way.
Cubs have taken a fair number of super-slot HS guys over the
years. I think they're maybe due for one or more of those to
click. Most really haven't... If I round off Moreno to $1M,
who are the other ≥$1M-ish superslot HS guys in recent
years?
2014: Sands (bust), Steele (wildman, not looking to work out,
although not done yet...), and Cease (best success, although in
terms of Cubs value, all he got was a lesser sliver of mediocre
Quintana)
2015: Hudson (bust)
2017: Estrada (nothing yet...)
I'd think maybe we're do to hit on one of these guys! Moreno,
why not you?
#Post#: 407478--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 25, 2020, 2:26 pm
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That doesn't quite exhaust their overage money. Not sure Nwogu
has much claim for any overslot, but *if* they wanted to, I
think they could still superslot him by almost $200K, *if* they
wanted to spend every allowable dollar.
I wonder how the negotiation with carraway went? Was he tops on
their board, PLUS willing to sub-slot? Win-win? Or were there
three other guys they called who they liked just as well, but
they all wanted at least slot, or maybe more?
#Post#: 407491--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Reb
Date: June 25, 2020, 4:45 pm
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Moreno’s bonus is closest to slot bonus #70 overall, which was a
2nd round compensation pick.
So, got some value there in 5th round.
#Post#: 407522--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: chgojhawk
Date: June 26, 2020, 7:59 am
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Not sure if we paid him $1M but pretty sure we went over slot on
DJ Wilson who I always felt was a waste even if we only gave him
slot.
Unfortunately I can’t say I am a huge fan of the Ed Howard pick.
I think he will play a nice SS but I question whether he will
hit enough. Hope I’m wrong Bc he seems like a great kid.
#Post#: 407527--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 26, 2020, 9:13 am
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--- Quote from: chgojhawk link ---
>
> Not sure if we paid him $1M but pretty sure we went over slot
on DJ Wilson who I always felt was a waste even if we only gave
him slot.
>
> Unfortunately I can’t say I am a huge fan of the Ed Howard
pick. I think he will play a nice SS but I question whether he
will hit enough. Hope I’m wrong Bc he seems like a great kid.
>
--- End Quote ---
Wilson was $1.3M. To my recall, he's the only non-HS draftee
who got the superslot million, at least since back in the
Maples/Dunston era when spending was uncapped.
Do you follow HS baseball in Chicago area enough to have seen
Howard in games? Just curious. I think your comment is on
point, that he seems like a great kid, and the reports on his
defense are really favorable; but in the end, as with any
player, how valuable he'll end up being will largely depend on
the bat.
Heh heh, as the Wilson example perhaps reflects. If defense,
attitude, effort, character, and work ethic were enough to make
a good player, we'd have our center-field situation solved. But
hitting is the one tool you can't live without, and perhaps the
hardest to project.
Hopefully Howard really will have it, and the Cubs have some
evaluation resources to be able to both project hitting capacity
and to optimize hitting skills better now than has tended to be
true in the past.
#Post#: 407529--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: chgojhawk
Date: June 26, 2020, 9:46 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Wilson was $1.3M. To my recall, he's the only non-HS draftee
who got the superslot million, at least since back in the
Maples/Dunston era when spending was uncapped.
>
> Do you follow HS baseball in Chicago area enough to have seen
Howard in games? Just curious. I think your comment is on
point, that he seems like a great kid, and the reports on his
defense are really favorable; but in the end, as with any
player, how valuable he'll end up being will largely depend on
the bat.
>
> Heh heh, as the Wilson example perhaps reflects. If defense,
attitude, effort, character, and work ethic were enough to make
a good player, we'd have our center-field situation solved. But
hitting is the one tool you can't live without, and perhaps the
hardest to project.
>
> Hopefully Howard really will have it, and the Cubs have some
evaluation resources to be able to both project hitting capacity
and to optimize hitting skills better now than has tended to be
true in the past.
>
--- End Quote ---
I haven't seen him play in HS, but he played against some kids I
know (who happened to be average HS pitchers). He was a
combined 1-8 with a couple Ks against kids who aren't moving on.
One of them can't break 80 on a radar gun.
Truthfully I don't think hitting is that difficult to project.
I think it is like everything else other than health. If a guy
can hit you will know it early on. Great athletes who don't hit
are routinely selected early for their athleticism and
expectation that they will become great hitters due to said
athleticism. Routinely they suck as hitters because hitting
isn't necessarily about athleticism. I don't care how "pretty"
a swing may appear to be. How does the ball come off the bat
and how often does it come off the bat? Give me the player who
squares up baseballs without regard for athleticism (assuming he
can be sufficient in the field or as a DH) and I will take that
guy in the box over the athlete.
#Post#: 407536--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 26, 2020, 10:53 am
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I've heard people speculate that hitters that are on the show
circuit can have trouble with hitting off of sub par guys. They
send so much time getting geared up to to hit 90's with good
breaking balls that junk is hard to hit.
#Post#: 407538--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: June 26, 2020, 11:11 am
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Athleticism is an important asset for a SS, IMO. If Howard is
outstanding defensively, he can be successful without being more
than average offensively.
#Post#: 407548--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Deeg
Date: June 26, 2020, 7:29 pm
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--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> Athleticism is an important asset for a SS, IMO. If Howard is
outstanding defensively, he can be successful without being more
than average offensively.
>
--- End Quote ---
But that's not a guy you take in the middle of the first round.
Now - is that Howard? I don't know. I think he has enough
offensive upside to be better than average, and more defensive
athleticism relative to position than Almora in CF. But
drafting high schoolers is a crapshoot.
#Post#: 407550--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 26, 2020, 7:42 pm
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Almora’s problem his plate discipline and making too much
contact on bad pitches.
Equating him to Howard without even having a senior year film on
high seems risky.
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