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#Post#: 406881--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 17, 2020, 1:08 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
>
> Kantro: "he’s never going to be a guy that’s painting
corners." Might-be-a-Maples will remain an open question for a
while, I think.
>
--- End Quote ---
He might be the Maples we hoped for, just enough control to get
by with nasty stuff. I'm still not convinced that taking a
reliever in the second round is a good value, but I'm not paid
to make those choices. I think to get value out of that pick he
is going to have to be an elite closer, even just a Strop level
reliever might be wasted value.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
>
> Still, changing a swing isn't easy, I don't think. Making
tweaks is one thing, serious revision of a swing may be harder.
>
> I also think "oh, only 18% K-rate, K's aren't a problem" may
be too optimistic. 18% isn't exactly small, and the NL is NOT
the Big Ten. A guy who K'd 18% against college pitching might K
like Brett Jackson in the pros. Plus if he's got specific holes
in his swing, big-league scouting might identify those holes in
a way that college scouting doesn't.
>
--- End Quote ---
Cubs reportedly changed Hoerner, Davis and Roderer's swings
after they drafted them and that was before integrating Stone.
Nwogo has had 3 different swings and stances at Michigan, so he
takes to coaching and has hit well. He might bust, but in the
third round that seems like a good value.
#Post#: 406888--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 17, 2020, 2:10 pm
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I agree on Nwogu, the risk is certainly real; but for a 3rd
rounder, the potential payoff seems like a good value, and
justifies the risk.
None of the reports have been favorable about his defense.
Consensus bad arm, and general sense that his routes and jumps
and instincts are variably poor.
Makes me wonder about DH? DH was discussed to be included if
they do hypothetically have a Covid season this year. I wonder
if in the next CBA, before Nwogu comes up, if there's any chance
of finally getting the DH for good? Probably not (with all of
the heavy fighting to be done over money, I'm not sure they'll
choose to spend any time discussing something like DH). But
*if* DH comes, that could make Nwogu more valuable to us. If
Schwarber was to extend, there'd not be room for two starting
bad-fielding left fielders. But if Nwogu could hit enough so
that you'd want him in the lineup, being able to DH would be
nice, or being able to move Schwarber to DH if Nwogu ends up
becoming the better defensive LF.
Blue, I don't really agree with the
non-closer-reliever-is-wasted-value. If he's just a mediocre
wildman reliever, yes. But if you've got a really high-end
quality setup reliever, I think the value could be good. Even
more so if he's a guy who will go two innings sometimes. Strop
would typically appear in 60 or more games. Josh Hader is
obviously a unicorn, but he's thrown around 80 innings per
season the last two years, with 15-20 more innings than
appearances, so lots of 2-inning outings. Seems to me that if
you had a high-quality 60-80 inning guy in relief, I'd consider
that to be excellent value for a 2nd-round selection.
#Post#: 406896--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: davep
Date: June 17, 2020, 3:16 pm
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I think most teams would be quite happy to get Josh Hader in the
second round of the draft.
#Post#: 406900--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Reb
Date: June 17, 2020, 3:46 pm
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Even a setup reliever, if dominant, can be extremely valuable.
Les Lancaster was a 4 bWAR guy in 1989, as an example.
The next year, 1990, Rob Dibble was a 4 bWAR reliever setting up
for Randy Myers.
#Post#: 406903--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 17, 2020, 4:17 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> Even a setup reliever, if dominant, can be extremely valuable.
>
> Les Lancaster was a 4 bWAR guy in 1989, as an example.
>
> The next year, 1990, Rob Dibble was a 4 bWAR reliever setting
up for Randy Myers.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yup, fun examples, great memories! I think the "if dominant" is
kind of a limiter, though? Being very good is one thing; being
Hader, Dibble or 1989-Lancaster is kind of remote.
The other limiter with all three of Hader, Dibble, and
89-Lancaster is the usage. All three of those are multi-inning
guys.
Dibble had 98 innings (98IP/68G): that's 30 "extra" innings.
Lancaster: 73IP/42G, 31 "extra" innings.
Hader: ~80 innings, ~15-20 "extra" innings per year.
The vast majority of relievers in today's usage are
single-inning guys. Relievers who are routinely pitching
"extra" innings and accruing 80 or more innings are very
unusual.
*If* Burl ends up being so special that he's both dominant in
the innings he gets; AND is so rubber-armed that his manager is
going to throw him for ≥80 innings and ≥15 "extra"
inning outings per year, that will be a VERY unusual and VERY
special weapon.
I'm an optimistic Cubs fan, for sure, and I hope Burl ends up
being phenomenal. But I think it's pretty unlikely that he'll
be THAT special, or that the Cubs will have a manager who is
unusual enough to be using him for lots of "extra" inning
outings. It sure wouldn't be Maddon doing that, that's for
sure.
Heh heh, I think Blue's original point was that unless he's so
great that he becomes a closer, that being a good setup reliever
isn't going to be great value. Lancaster's year was obviously a
fluke. And setups phenomenal enough to be Hader and Dibble,
they pretty much satisfied Blue's greatness critereon, and
quickly enough become closers.
#Post#: 406905--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 17, 2020, 4:23 pm
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I should have said an elite reliever. Hader is elite weather he
closes or he doesn’t.
Strop was a good reliever for the Cubs. He was a throw in for
Feldman. The Cubs have found multiple good relievers at
basically no cost.
9 relievers where worth 2 fWAR in 2019, 50 starters reached that
level.
#Post#: 407031--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Bennett
Date: June 19, 2020, 12:28 pm
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HTML https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-draftee-luke-little-eager-to-begin-career
#Post#: 407049--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 19, 2020, 3:28 pm
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Fangraphs redone prospect ranks
Howard #5 (45+)
Carraway #11 (40+)
Little #38 (35+)
Ngwo #40 (35+)
Moreno #43 (35+)
The number in there parenthesis is FV.
#Post#: 407170--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 21, 2020, 3:14 pm
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Mooney is replying Howard will sign for slot.
Callis has the Cubs with 2/15 top UDFA signings.
#Post#: 407181--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Bennett
Date: June 21, 2020, 5:36 pm
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HTML https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/06/cubs-sign-first-round-pick-ed-howard.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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