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#Post#: 406581--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 12:09 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Cubs top 10 picks under Theo
>
> 35 college pitchers and only 4 have reached the majors, none
higher than 2 fWAR in their career so far.
>
--- End Quote ---
Thanks, yeah, that's really striking and bad. So, who are the 4
who reached?
*Godfrey is the biggest winner of that bunch?
*Zastryzny?
*James Norwood?
*Who's the other guy? Pierce Johnson!!!
Man, that's really bad, especially given how many picks they've
invested.
I wonder if that isn't a combo of trying to be a little too
enlightened and being a little too dumb? They've run the
statistics: at least 10 years ago, the stats showed that it was
harder to get good hitters outside round 1 than to get good
pitchers. And that there were a lot of big-league pitchers
without knockout arms who'd come out of college after round 1.
So, they thought they were being smart. But the actual scouting
and development, it's just been 35 misses.
Will be interesting to see how the pitch-lab era, and the
reemphasis on higher-velocity guys, plays out. Last year Jensen
and McAvene are both power guys, what if we hit on one or both
of those?
I still don't really see either Burl or Little as being "high
floor" guys. As Maples shows, it doesn't matter how fast you
throw and how sharp your breaking ball is; if you've got no
control your floor is plenty low.
So I guess I kinda see gambling on wild, big-arm guys with such
tiny sample sizes and so very little indication of any control
or consistency as being plenty low-floor.
#Post#: 406582--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 12:14 pm
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I'm guessing all five will sign at around slot.
Any other guesses?
*If not, I assume Moreno would be the more likely overslot guy?
If Moreno does get overslot, who would you guess agreed to
sub-slot in order to fund Moreno?
#Post#: 406583--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 12, 2020, 12:29 pm
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Here more depressing drafting. After the first round here are
the fWAR leaders.
Zach Godley 6
Bolte 2.5
Daniel Ponce de Leon 1.2 (who the Cubs agreed to sign, but
voided his contract over a physcial)
That is the list of guys above 1 career fWAR that the Cubs have
drafted under Theo.
I though 2018 and 2019 the Cubs had turned a corner in the draft
under Dorey. This is a step back to me. The best drafts are
going to manage their risk, so take a high upside guy that might
flame out and get some college guys to mix in. The Cubs outside
of a very few picks have risk adverse and I think that shows in
their results.
I think Moreno would be the 5% overage, assuming the Cubs have
enough money to spend that.
#Post#: 406584--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: davep
Date: June 12, 2020, 12:31 pm
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I would guess that 2, 3, and 4 are candidates for underslot, and
that the Cubs were quite sure when they picked the 5th pick high
school guy, exactly how much they had to spend on him. Very few
top 10 picks go unsigned by any teams these days, and the Cubs
have been as good or better at this than the others.
Moreno, the high school pitcher, is in the same position as the
Cubs, although on the other side of the coin. It is difficult
to take a high school pitcher because so many of them end up
with arm trouble. At the same time, it is difficult to turn
down half a million dollars and risk getting nothing if your arm
goes out in the next three years. It is usually in the best
interest of both sides to reach an agreement that both sides can
live with.
#Post#: 406585--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Bluebufoon
Date: June 12, 2020, 12:48 pm
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The question becomes, how many undrafted fee agents can the Cubs
convince to sign ?
#Post#: 406586--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 1:04 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> ..I though 2018 and 2019 the Cubs had turned a corner in the
draft under Dorey. This is a step back to me. The best drafts
are going to manage their risk, so take a high upside guy that
might flame out and get some college guys to mix in. The Cubs
outside of a very few picks have risk adverse and I think that
shows in their results.
>
> I think Moreno would be the 5% overage, assuming the Cubs have
enough money to spend that.
--- End Quote ---
yeah, if 1-4 are just slot and Moreno gets the composite 5%
overage, maybe that's all the overslot that he needed.
Blue, it's a bummer for us as fans that this minor league season
is lost. Would have been a great chance to see the 18 draft
play out: is davis a top-end prospect? Is Franklin a real
prospect? If Roederer a bust, or will he start to look he
really is a prospect? Is Hoerner a back-of-roster guy, or is he
actually a capable rotation or starter-level big-league 2B?
Last year's draft was stocked with college pitchers, so it would
have been super interesting to see whether Jensen is just too
chronically wild to get excited about, or is he actually a guy
who might be really good? And can he last and start, or is he
pretty much relief-track, as most draftnicks kind of expected
from him? McAvene had some really nice numbers at Boise; can he
actually pitch in full-season, or is he a chronic wildman who'd
have been exposed quickly enough in full-season? Clarke got
zero draft pub, but his Boise numbers were great, he's young,
and he's huge; might pitch lab and development get more velocity
from him, and he'll be really good? (Many of the system
rankings had him as high or higher than McAvene this winter.)
How about Herz or Schaeffer, would any of them provide hints
that they might become meaningful prospects?
Would have been so interesting to get another year of info on
all of those guys from the last two drafts.
#Post#: 406587--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 1:08 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Bluebufoon link ---
>
> The question becomes, how many undrafted fee agents can the
Cubs convince to sign ?
>
--- End Quote ---
I wonder how quickly those will get publicized or tweeted?
Harder to evaluate: in past the signing bonus and the draft
round gave more insight into who the Cubs liked and who were
roster-fill.
Other question: will guys who sign, draftees and other, head
down to Mesa and start training and practicing and getting
coached? Or is camp and pitch lab and development not even
happening at all?
Are Jensen and McAvene down in Mesa for months, working away on
fields and in pitch lab and stuff and developing? Or are they
just hanging out at home spending their signing bonus money?
#Post#: 406588--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: Bennett
Date: June 12, 2020, 1:10 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian 40m
Which player picked by the Cubs is "a good bet to be the first
2020 draftee to reach the big leagues"?
See what our Draft experts said in a round-up of their favorite
pick for all 30 teams:
CUBSBurl Carraway, LHP, Dallas Baptist (2nd round)
Carraway is a good bet to be the first 2020 draftee to reach the
big leagues because he's a pure reliever with one of the best
1-2 punches available. He features high spin rates on a 93-98
mph fastball he throws by hitters up in the strike zone, as well
as on a power curveball with excessive downward break.
HTML https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-draft-pick-for-all-30-teams
#Post#: 406589--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 12, 2020, 1:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I wonder how quickly those will get publicized or tweeted?
Harder to evaluate: in past the signing bonus and the draft
round gave more insight into who the Cubs liked and who were
roster-fill.
>
> Other question: will guys who sign, draftees and other, head
down to Mesa and start training and practicing and getting
coached? Or is camp and pitch lab and development not even
happening at all?
>
> Are Jensen and McAvene down in Mesa for months, working away
on fields and in pitch lab and stuff and developing? Or are
they just hanging out at home spending their signing bonus
money?
>
--- End Quote ---
They can't sign anyone until Sunday and MLB.com will keep track
of it.
The complex isn't open to the players as far as I know. There
has been some talk about an extended fall league in Arizona, but
that isn't looking likely right now with how poorly Arizona has
been handling it.
#Post#: 406595--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2020
DIR By: craig
Date: June 12, 2020, 3:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://bastian.mlblogs.com/i-think-its-a-great-fit-i-m-super-excited-q-a-with-burl-carraway-6f924b2307a
“He’s pretty special,” Heefner said. “He legitimately has two
pitches that are borderline unhittable. The fastball and the
curveball. It’s shocking that he didn’t go higher than he did,
because with the Trackman data they have today, where you can
compare guys to everybody across the country, I’ve heard several
organizations say that his fastball and his breaking ball graded
out the best in the whole Draft.”
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