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#Post#: 388863--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: craig Date: September 30, 2019, 10:26 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=546.msg388857#msg388857
date=1569897234]
Craig say the Cubs replace Hamels and Quintana in the rotation
and Strop, Cishek, Kintzler, Phelps, Brach, Morrow, Duensing in
the bullpen. Would that be a big change?[/quote]
Not sure how to answer that!
A. In terms of the fan base perception, I don't know? Not sure
deeg and br would say yes?
B. Personally, I would be very comfortable with that level of
change myself, Blue. I think that's a lot of change. And
that's the sort of the level of change that I'd have
anticipated, prior to Theo's press conference; and still think
is quite possible, once he gets actual offers.
C. Theo-wise, I'm not quite sure that's the change Theo's
presser would suggest, though? What do you think, Blue? Ron,
how about you? The reason I wonder if Theo would view that as
the "big change" he seemed to be talking about is because:
1. That's entirely pitching-staff changes.... yet his 2-hour
presser spoke relatively little about pitching.
2. To my ears, more of his comments spoke to lineup. ["least
contact" "fewest fastballs" "parts of the strike zone we're
otherwise vulnerable too", "team that can be game-planned-for".]
So replacing Q, Phelps, Duensing etc. doesn't really address
those game-plan-vulnerabilities that he seemed to talk about?
3. He also seemed to talk about having stuck too long with his
2016 core, but now being ready to "change". Personally I'm good
with your pitching changes; but if Theo again brings back the
same 2016 guys lineup-wise, would that be the "change" Theo
himself maybe seemed to be implying today?
I have no idea.
#Post#: 388864--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 10:55 pm
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I re-listened to parts of the press conference and wanted to add
some observations.
Re Theo's assessment of the offense: he specifically noted that
the Cubs had the lowest contact rate in baseball and as evidence
of how easy it is "game plan" the Cubs the fact that they see
the fewest fastballs in baseball. He expressed frustration that
the Cubs have not adjusted to these issues. He also bemoaned
having the most outs on the bases in baseball. Seems to me that
these are clear areas he wants to focus on in player acquisition
(and development) going forward.
He referred to the results from the leadoff position as
"unacceptable numbers." He said the best solution would be to
acquire a prototypical leadoff hitter, but said if they cannot
do that the best solution is "to get as many players who
specialize in getting on base as possible, and if they can be a
great baserunner all the better." He referred to improving the
performance from the leadoff position as "the lowest possible
hanging fruit there is." He said he places "a huge priority on
getting on base" which would provide "lots of options." He said
"if you have as a goal leading the league in on base percentage
you usually are not going to be wanting in the leadoff spot ...
but the best outcome by far is to get someone who is comfortable
in that spot, thrives in that spot, provides energy."
He pointed out that while the Cubs had the 5th most runs in the
league, they had the 3rd best ERA in the league, saying that the
pitching outperformed the offense in that regard (though he went
on to point out the Cubs' very poor pitching in high leverage
situations).
So I do not believe that making significant changes in the
pitching staff alone would come near satisfying Theo.
#Post#: 388865--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 11:12 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=546.msg388855#msg388855
date=1569896246]
Zobrist, Rizzo, Hoerner, Kemp, Lucroy, Heyward, Caratini,
Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, Descalso, Happ, Russell, LESTER,
Castellanos, Bote, Contreras, DARVISH, Baez, HENDRICKS.
This is the Cubs top 20 hitters by contact rate. My phone didn’t
reset it to 50 PA my first post and guys like Zagunis and Taylor
Davis where in there.
I’m not sure why Baez gets a pass when it comes to contact
rates. I love him, but he is the streakiest player on the team.
[/quote]
Of the guys in front of Bryant, Zobrist (who will presuably not
be back) and Rizzo are obviously no surprise. Hoerner has not
been exposed to major league pitching enough to draw conclusions
from his numbers, but obviously Theo likes that quality in him.
Kemp, Lucroy and Almora obviously have not had the kind of
contact that is all that useful are really not relevant. It is
interesting that Heyward does as well as he does, considering
that he seems to have hit the ball hard this season, and that
Caratini shows up there - Theo has to like that.
I don't think Baez gets a pass on contact rates, but there are
so many other aspects to his game that his contact rate is
something you can live with - if your lineup has enough contact
guys. And the reason I think that Bryant is more likely to be
traded is not only because he's less likely to sign a long term
contract, but also because replacing Baez at SS would be way
more difficult than replacing Bryant at 3B.
#Post#: 388866--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 11:23 pm
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I think the Cubs would be fine with living with low contact
rates of Baez and Contreras if they had six other regulars with
good (reasonably hard) contact rates in the lineup. Rizzo and
(hopefully) Hoerner are a start. Maybe Heyward and Schwarber
would count? I look for the Cubs to try hard to get a CF (and
if they trade Bryant a 3B), and maybe a transitional 2B who fits
that bill.
#Post#: 388867--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 11:33 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=546.msg388858#msg388858
date=1569898217]
Theo said—maybe even emphasized- that Cubs don’t know what will
be available to them in trade market. So, would not be so sure
about big moves with position players. Depends.
I think that IF Cubs trade Bryant, it will be more a matter of
getting something good for him now instead of watching him leave
in two years and getting a compensation 4th round pick back for
losing him. But, hard to see how trading him upgrades Cubs run
scoring ability. Not really a fan of such a move now.
Kind of doubt will move Schwarber. After the break, batted .280
and .997 OPS. Was hitting ball to opposite field and doing what
they wanted him to work on. Among other things, not sure it
sends a good message trading a guy who managed to do that and
change his game somewhat.
[/quote]
Yes, Theo pointed out that it all depends on what/who is
available in trades. Obviously he isn't going to just trade
Bryant or anyone else without getting what he considers fair
value in return. One of the things he emphasized was that he
was more concerned with what he would get back in a trade than
what he would give up.
To me that implied that he was willing to give up a lot (Bryant,
Contreras, Schwarber?) so long as he received the quality and
types of players he seeks in return. The anticipated loss of
Bryant after 2021 sounded to me like a very significant factor
in Theo's thinking, and his emphasis on preparing for a "new
window" after 2021 reinforced that for me. He is still thinking
long term, whether or not he's going to be around after 2021.
#Post#: 388868--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 11:57 pm
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Sahadev Sharma has chimed in on Theo's press conference.
Here are some excerpts. There are lots of quotes from Theo mixed
into the article as well. It is a good summary/analysis, well
worth a read.
This is a group that’s notorious for chasing breaking balls out
of the zone and failing to make contact with high fastballs. So
along with pitching – both starters and bullpen – the Cubs will
be looking for contact-oriented hitters who know how to control
the zone and handle those troublesome high fastballs. They need
to upgrade at both center field and second base. Their
production from the leadoff spot — the .294 OBP from the top of
the lineup was worst in baseball — was atrocious.
...
While Anthony Rizzo or Javier Báez being traded would come as
quite a surprise, there are other valuable players who could be
made available. Happ and Schwarber are easy to point to, but
it’s certainly not out of the question that one of Bryant or
Contreras is traded.
...
While Epstein was effusive in his praise of Contreras, his
description of him also almost sounded like a sales pitch to
teams who may be interested. And as good as Bryant is when
healthy, he has two years remaining on his contract, meaning now
may be the best time to maximize his value on the trade market.
...
The Cubs have engaged Bryant and Báez in extension talks in
previous offseasons. There will be discussions again this
offseason. The smart money is on Báez being more amenable to an
extension. He seemed open to the idea prior to Sunday’s season
finale, saying he’d like to stay with the Cubs his whole career.
...
The Cubs aren’t tearing it down. There won’t be another run like
2012-14 now or in the near future. But would taking a step back
for 2020 be something that’s necessary to avoid a total teardown
a year or two later?
...
The short answer seems to be that while contending is preferred
for 2020, ignoring the seasons beyond is not a route they’ll
take. There are those who will say it’s foolish to move key
pieces when this team has proven it can win. But Epstein seems
over being stuck in the past. He admits that perhaps they
misevaluated just how good this group would be and clung too
long to certain players.
...
An 11-16 September and 2-9 stretch to end the season pushed the
Cubs to this point. There can be no more masking of the
failures. No more pointing to high win totals or deceiving
statistics that don’t truly expose the flaws of the roster.
Change is essential, at all levels.
So, is the reckoning finally here?
HTML https://theathletic.com/1256530/2019/09/30/whenever-you-dont-make-it-its-horrible-around-here-a-winter-of-change-awaits-the-cubs/
#Post#: 388877--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: wmljohn Date: October 1, 2019, 7:00 am
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[quote]discussing players nearing end of control, said if longer
deal cannot be reached that would be a factor in openness to
trades. Said he cared more about what they would receive in
trade than what they would give up.[/quote]
KB. KB. KB...
Trade his ass to a shitty team for some young talented players
and then see how bad he wants to return to Chicago in two years.
Don't do what Washington did with Harper.
#Post#: 388881--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Robb Date: October 1, 2019, 8:05 am
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I will consider this offseason a success if they can sign Cole
or possibly Strasburg if he opts out, trade either Contrerras or
Bryant for impact talent and remove Russell, Almora, Happ and
finally, eat whatever they have to of Heyward's contract to
trade him. As a bonus signing Castellanos and bringing in a
healthy high k/low walk guy or two for the bullpen wouldn't hurt
either.
#Post#: 388883--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Robb Date: October 1, 2019, 8:09 am
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Wick, Wieck and Ryan are a nice start to next year's bullpen.
Short an injury Kimbrel will be there. Is there anyone else you
want back from this year's crew? I've seen enough of Cishek and
Kintzler. Maybe Strop based on his final, presumably healthy
weeks? Chatwood is back but could be given a sniff at the
rotation. Maybe pick up Q's option, trade him and then plug in
Chatwood/Mills as 5th starter?
#Post#: 388884--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: dev Date: October 1, 2019, 8:32 am
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Brandon Morrow is a free agent now....<ducks>
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