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#Post#: 388852--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: brjones Date: September 30, 2019, 9:09 pm
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I've seen these BetOnline.ag manager odds on a few different
Twitter accounts today. Espada is the Astros bench coach, is he
the playoff coach candidate Theo referred to today?
David Ross +200
Joe Espada +300
Mark DeRosa +400
Mark Loretta +600
Hensley Meulens +600
Joe Girardi +750
Carlos Beltran +750
Kevin Youkilis +1000
#Post#: 388853--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 9:10 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=546.msg388845#msg388845
date=1569894600]
Theo’s press conference is really a rorscharch test of your Cubs
fandom.
Cubs non-pitchers had a 74.2% contact percentage. The 15 team
was 76.5%. The number 5 team was 77.7%. The Astros were top at
team at 80.8%.
Bryant (74.1%) Schwarber (73.9%) and Happ (71.7)ranked 9, 10, 13
on the Cubs this year. Castellanos was 16 at 70.4%. Contreras
18th at 69.7% Baez ranked 20th at 66.7%. I set it to a
minimum of 50 PA.
[/quote]
I'm confused. You seem to be saying that there were 8 Cubs who
had better contact rates than Bryant, that 15 had better rate
than Castellanos, 17 had higher rate than Contreras and 19
higher than Baez. Who were they? Of course, 50 PA is very low
standard for comparison.
#Post#: 388855--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: CUBluejays Date: September 30, 2019, 9:17 pm
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Zobrist, Rizzo, Hoerner, Kemp, Lucroy, Heyward, Caratini,
Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, Descalso, Happ, Russell, LESTER,
Castellanos, Bote, Contreras, DARVISH, Baez, HENDRICKS.
This is the Cubs top 20 hitters by contact rate. My phone didn’t
reset it to 50 PA my first post and guys like Zagunis and Taylor
Davis where in there.
I’m not sure why Baez gets a pass when it comes to contact
rates. I love him, but he is the streakiest player on the team.
#Post#: 388856--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: craig Date: September 30, 2019, 9:23 pm
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Ron, basically it's Schwarber, Bryant, Baez, or Contreras as the
four core guys who might be hypothetically considered for trade
in order to bring back impact talent.
I'd consider the "core personnel" to be the following guys:
1. "studs", which would be Baez, Bryant, Contreras, and Rizzo.
2. Add Schwarber as you suggest, now with his great second-half
and breakout season.
3. Darvish and Hendricks would also be core. That's 7.
4. Heyward and Lester are 2016-2020 starters; not "core" in
being long-term future assets. But kinda "core" in that they've
been around for all 4 or 5 years; will surely be around next
year; and are "core" from a budget-perspective.
So, that's 9 core-guys.
I think Theo is looking to consider moving one of those 9 guys.
But he's not able to move Lester or Heyward; he won't want to
move Hendricks or Darvish; and he won't want to move Rizzo.
So basically that leaves Schwarber, Bryant, Baez, or Contreras
as the four core guys who might be hypothetically considered for
trade in order to bring back impact talent. Baez seems awfully
unlikely, too.
It might happen, and it will be exciting and scary and a big
deal and kind of disappointing if he does move any one of those
guys. But I think there's a very real possibility that Theo
won't get fair value for any of those four, and that the
"changes" will occur with the other supporting personnel.
#Post#: 388857--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: CUBluejays Date: September 30, 2019, 9:33 pm
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Craig say the Cubs replace Hamels and Quintana in the rotation
and Strop, Cishek, Kintzler, Phelps, Brach, Morrow, Duensing in
the bullpen. Would that be a big change?
#Post#: 388858--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Reb Date: September 30, 2019, 9:50 pm
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Theo said—maybe even emphasized- that Cubs don’t know what will
be available to them in trade market. So, would not be so sure
about big moves with position players. Depends.
Regarding Contreras, I think he was asked a specific question
about Contreras and, therefore, went on in some detail in
response. Called him a potential league MVP. Pretty effusive if
you take it at face value.
If recall correctly, a year ago Theo kind of minimized leadoff
at his end of season presser. Thought he was a bit more needy
about it compared to a year ago. Guessing they get somebody
significant.
Basically agree with CBJ that bolstering top end of rotation is
the move to make for 2020, if possible. As Ron notes, Theo was
clear that the 2019 rotation was not the trump card he expected,
compared to rest of division. Yeah, would be nice to still have
Dylan Cease but not going to hit on all trades when you look
back. That’s just baseball.
I think that IF Cubs trade Bryant, it will be more a matter of
getting something good for him now instead of watching him leave
in two years and getting a compensation 4th round pick back for
losing him. But, hard to see how trading him upgrades Cubs run
scoring ability. Not really a fan of such a move now.
Cubs have other major league players of value to trade: Happ,
Caratini, Bote— with years of control and youth. And there are
prospects of value to supplement trades, without trading top 3
or 4 prospects.
Kind of doubt will move Schwarber. After the break, batted .280
and .997 OPS. Was hitting ball to opposite field and doing what
they wanted him to work on. Among other things, not sure it
sends a good message trading a guy who managed to do that and
change his game somewhat.
#Post#: 388859--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: CUBluejays Date: September 30, 2019, 10:01 pm
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Did Dylan Cease learn how to throw strikes?
#Post#: 388860--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: Ron Date: September 30, 2019, 10:12 pm
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craig - Thanks for the clarification and specificity. I do not
consider Schwarber a "core" player, but I do consider him to be
a valuable part of the team, and someone who could bring a
substantial return were he to be traded (particularly to an AL
team).
Among the position players, I agree that Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and
Contreras should be considered core players. I don't think
there is any chance Rizzo would be traded. Theo explicitly did
not rule out trading anybody, and I think his suggestion that
the failure to reach an extension with other guys who will be
free agents (Bryant and Baez) will factor into trade decisions
was meaningful. Given the high probability Bryant won't agree
to a deal, I expect him to be aggressively shopped. While I do
not expect Baez to be traded, if he doesn't agree to an
extension I think that is possible.
I know some are skeptical or even cynical about Theo being
serious about making substantial changes, based on his failure
to do so after the 2018 season, but it seems to me he is clearly
in a different place now, and I think anyone who listened to
this press conference should come away convinced of that. He
explicitly acknowledged that he was slow to accept the
limitations of players who had made the team so successful in
prior years. He also focused heavily on the need to build a new
team that is built for the future, not the past. Hard to do that
without some meaningful change in personnel.
I fully expect him to try to force the issue of a trade or
trades to make a fairly basic change in the makeup of the team
on the field. Granted, he'll need to find a favorable deal, but
I expect there will be some very aggressive offers for Bryant,
if not for others.
#Post#: 388861--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: guest61 Date: September 30, 2019, 10:16 pm
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Im betting Schwarber and/or Bryant go [possibly Happ,Almora,and
Russell too],we resign Castellanos,bring in a leadoff man in
CF,leave Hoerner at 2nd,and go after a #1 starter.
I say we hire Girardi.
#Post#: 388862--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '20
By: ben Date: September 30, 2019, 10:18 pm
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CUBluejays, those are interesting stats on how much behind
Dodgers our SPs were. Thanks for those stats. Clearly, we've
got some SERIOUS starting pitcher issues! Good starting
pitching can mask lots of team deficiencies...and the Cards (and
other teams in our division) should have plus starting pitching
next year!! We will seemingly need to land a #3 starter, at the
least, to keep up, if we can! Other pitching moves will need to
be made, too, one would think (e.g. Lester as swing man?? Wick
with a more prominent role)
As for Schwarber and/or Castellanos, Nick CLEARLY fits the Cub -
and EVERY other team's - lineup...yet with Boras as his agent,
why should we think Cubs will outbid everyone else to land him
(at a likely ridiculous price), particularly with our starting
pitcher needs? I'd love to think Nick would give us a discount
due to how he mashes at Wrigley etc., but that's just not what
Boras' clients tend to do.
Maybe the future Kyle Schwarber will be the 2nd half guy? He's
now had 1.600 or so ABs and many scouts talk about 1,200 as the
magic number for a lot of MLB hitters to better handle MLB
pitching and gain more consistent success.
Schwarber may or may not be close to Nick Castellanos as an
offensive force next year or in future years; however, it's VERY
clear that Kyle will be a LOT less expensive for at least the
next couple of years and, as we look to add better starting
pitching and other help, MONEY will be a requirement. At least
next year, we will be blessed with some things (and another high
payroll is one of them), but seemingly not MLB-ready starters at
the AAA level!!
I'm not complaining (as what Theo et al have accomplished for
Cub fans over the past 5 years has been unprecedented in our
lifetimes), but improving Cub pitching in 2020 seems to me the
#1 priority. I'll always believe what Joe Torre said as Yankee
manager, "I used to think pitching was 70% of the game. Then, I
became a manager and realized it's a whole helluva lot more
important than that!"
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