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#Post#: 359872--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Robb Date: October 5, 2018, 6:42 pm
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Keep in mind the new CBA is coming when the union is expected to
play hardball after giving up the farm in the last deal. If they
can get a little relief from the luxury tax that would make
things better for the suddenly cash rich Cubs.
#Post#: 359873--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Bennett Date: October 5, 2018, 6:45 pm
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The current TV agreement goes through 2019.
#Post#: 359874--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 5, 2018, 7:09 pm
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You almost have to believe the Cubs are going to be serious
players on either Harper or Machado, even if things eventually
get too rich for their blood. The question is probably which
one.
#Post#: 359877--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: brjones Date: October 5, 2018, 8:48 pm
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I assume they're going to be serious players on both. I don't
think there's any circumstance where they sign both--they'll
have a preference for one, and they'll have serious enough
conversations to be able to quickly pivot to the other if their
first choice signs somewhere else.
#Post#: 359878--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: craig Date: October 5, 2018, 9:20 pm
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Jeff will get this closer, but I'm guessing the payroll might
increase by ~$40 million just by keeping the guys they've got?
1. Hamels: paying him all year, big increase
2. Bryant A2 arb raises. (even if Bryant's year wasn't that
good.)
3. Hendricks A2 arb raise. Big.
3. Baez: A1, big raise relative to $0.65
4. Schwarber;
Edwards;
Montgomery are all A1 arb guys now; they won't be playing for
$0.6K anymore, so those will add up even if they aren't getting
Baez A1 salary.
5. Russell is A2, if they keep him.
6. Kintzler, whole year of his salary.
So a whole lot of built-in payroll inflation just to stand pat,
before you even start talking Machado or Harper.
#Post#: 359879--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: JeffH Date: October 5, 2018, 9:27 pm
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Craig, here are my drunken estimates for our arb eligibles. You
- and others - please weigh in.
OF
IF
IF
IF
IF
SP
RP
RP
#Post#: 359880--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: brjones Date: October 5, 2018, 9:29 pm
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Russell will be gone. If they can't find a trade for him by the
arb deadline, he'll be non-tendered.
I think Kintzler will be gone somehow. Maybe he'll opt out (he
has a $5 million player option--he may think he can find more
than that). If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will
take him off the Cubs hands.
They'll ultimately figure out some kind of multi-year deal for
Hamels, and it'll cost less next year than just picking up the
option.
I think Schwarber, Montgomery, and Edwards are all in play in
the right trade this offseason, so one or more of those salaries
might not impact the payroll either.
#Post#: 359881--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 5, 2018, 9:34 pm
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Before option and Arbs are factored in Cots has them $61.393
million below the tax threshold of $206 million. Cot’s had them
almost $14 million under the $197 million tax threshold this
year.
Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler contracts would about pay for
Hamels.
#Post#: 359882--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: guest61 Date: October 5, 2018, 9:49 pm
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I dont think they'll just release Addison.
If nobody wants him (and somebody will) we'll just keep him.
I do believe we'd like to get rid of him though.
#Post#: 359883--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: craig Date: October 5, 2018, 10:01 pm
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Think some of that is a little too optimistic.
1. "Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler" and "Maybe he'll opt
out ... If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take
him off the Cubs hands"sounds kinda easier than it is?
*With guaranteed contracts, either you pay them or you exchange
them for somebody else's repulsive contract.
2. Cots: Did you check their numbers and are you sure they're
good? When I look at their spreadsheet, they've got Quintana
listed at $1 and Strop at $0.5? I'm not saying your numbers are
wrong, just asking. Or maybe I don't understand their
spreadsheet, and that's format for entering options. But, I
htink we can safely say the Cubs aren't likley to opt out of
either Q or Strop.
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/pubhtml
3. Jeff: Your numbers are usually pretty good. I might've
guessed a little higher for each of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks?
Bryant was already $11 as an A1, so I'd guess he'd get a bigger
jump than only $2?
Baez is coming off almost-MVP season; may not match Bryant's $11
A1, but I'd think he'd be somewhat nearer $11 than $4.8?
Hendricks too, I'd think he'll be variably north of $8.5.
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