DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Archives
*****************************************************
#Post#: 359704--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: craig Date: October 3, 2018, 4:05 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ben link=topic=523.msg359697#msg359697
date=1538597746]Some of the young Cub hitters will likely make
significant improvements next season. ...some of Contreras,
Schwarber, Almora, Happ and Russell could have much better
seasons, too, due to expected improvement as they move toward
their peak years.....[/quote]
This is the challenge. It's going to be easy to roll out
rationalizations: some guys weren't entirely healthy, and our
young guys got tired because they needed a day off in September.
But I admit I do wonder. Maybe I'm blinded by my eyes watching
games, maybe it's recentism, and maybe I should get away what I
saw watching games and should look at some statistical stuff.
But watching Schwarber and Happ, it's kind of hard to see how or
why they should be much more productive, Schwarber especially,
because it will be his year 5.
Happ, maybe has a little more chance. Think he's been trying to
analyze and figure out why he can't hit much, maybe he's
thinking too much and perhaps he'll hypothetically simplify to a
see-it-and-let-it-rip approach and hypothetically end up
blossoming into a .250 hitter or something. But watching their
swings, and how rarely they can hit strikes or fastballs, it's
hard to really see why we should naturally expect a lot of
improvement.
I think one of the other factors with hitters is that sometimes
with extended struggle, I suspect that can erode a guy's
confidence. A guy used to be good; but now you're not that good
anymore, hard contact has become rare and flukey rather than
normal, and you've tried everything you can and it doesn't help
much? Hard to swing with confidence when hard contact is so
uncommon.
#Post#: 359713--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 3, 2018, 4:32 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Russell's suspension does impact the Cubs, because it torpedoes
whatever trade value he still has.
I've never been more divided about a manager than I am about
Maddon. On the one hand he's clearly great at managing a
clubhouse and shielding his players from the media. On the
other, he's an abomination at handling a pitching staff and
these inexplicable in-game decisions are really getting old.
Then there's the fact that if he's back, it's almost surely
going to be on a contract extension because neither he nor Theo
will want him here as a lame duck. Is he full of himself? Of
course, but that in itself isn't really a decisive factor.
There's more of Dusty Baker in Joe Maddon than anyone would like
to admit.
#Post#: 359724--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 3, 2018, 4:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=523.msg359704#msg359704
date=1538600733]
But I admit I do wonder. Maybe I'm blinded by my eyes watching
games, maybe it's recentism, and maybe I should get away what I
saw watching games and should look at some statistical stuff.
But watching Schwarber and Happ, it's kind of hard to see how or
why they should be much more productive, Schwarber especially,
because it will be his year 5.
Happ, maybe has a little more chance. Think he's been trying to
analyze and figure out why he can't hit much, maybe he's
thinking too much and perhaps he'll hypothetically simplify to a
see-it-and-let-it-rip approach and hypothetically end up
blossoming into a .250 hitter or something. But watching their
swings, and how rarely they can hit strikes or fastballs, it's
hard to really see why we should naturally expect a lot of
improvement.
I think one of the other factors with hitters is that sometimes
with extended struggle, I suspect that can erode a guy's
confidence. A guy used to be good; but now you're not that good
anymore, hard contact has become rare and flukey rather than
normal, and you've tried everything you can and it doesn't help
much? Hard to swing with confidence when hard contact is so
uncommon.
[/quote]
Schwarber's power was down this year. His ISO was .229 vs .241
and .256 in 2015 and 2017. His wRC+ was 115. That tied for
63rd in MLB for qualified hitters and that is your 5-7th hitter.
Maybe he doesn't reach Rizzo levels, but he's still good.
Happ, like Baez before him needs to drop his K%. Maybe he can,
maybe he doesn't. He has a career wRC+ of 109 and was 106 and
he's basically a back up.
Look at it this way, if you take the Red Sox team and guys with
more than 250 PA. Schwarber would rank 5th and Happ 7th in
terms of wRC+. On the Cubs they ranked 5th and 6th. The
difference between the Cubs and Red Sox is Betts and Martinez
performed like superstars and Bryant and Rizzo didn't.
#Post#: 359736--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: ben Date: October 3, 2018, 5:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Craig, don't forget that Schwarber, Almora and Happ have only
1,086, 855 and 751 MLB at bats, respectively. Not a lot.
Contreras has barely 1,100 ABs in his career.
Some scouts say it takes most good players 1,500 MLB at bats to
perform against MLB pitching. Javy had almost 1,200 ABs before
this breakthrough season.
Our guys have been around a while, so it's easy to forget how
young they are. Of course, not all improve a lot, but some do.
My best guess is that AT LEAST two of Schwarber, Almora, Happ
and Contreras will take their offensive games to the next level
(with more power) in the next year or two, though no real way of
knowing which. Another of those four may not figure it out
offensively until age 28 - 30.
If Russell gets his personal life straightened out, I won't be
surprised if he returns to his 2016 hitting form or better.
It usually takes time - and ABs - with good young players.
#Post#: 359737--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Playtwo Date: October 3, 2018, 6:25 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Replace Russell with Machado and with the likely bounce back of
Bryant and Contreras you will have a fine offense.
#Post#: 359739--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 3, 2018, 6:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I'm not sold on how likely that bounce back is for either guy.
There's clearly something wrong with Bryant's shoulder above and
beyond simple fatigue, and it sounds like surgery hasn't been
ruled out. And Contreras flat out regressed this season, above
and beyond simple overuse. Simply banking on stuff like that is
taking a big gamb le.
As for Machado, obviously a great player but if signing him
comes with an expectation that he plays SS, I'm out - he's
already a liability there. He's super young for an elite FA but
it's scary to commit so many years and so much money to a guy
whose value is so tied in to defense and is already regressing
there. Depending on the money of course, Harper may be a less
risky option.
#Post#: 359740--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: craig Date: October 3, 2018, 6:57 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
what are you guys figuring for payroll? $250-270 or so?
#Post#: 359742--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Bennett Date: October 3, 2018, 7:07 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=523.msg359740#msg359740
date=1538611071]
what are you guys figuring for payroll? $250-270 or so?
[/quote]
I just read that depending on who doesn't come back, the Twins
could have only $24 million committed towards 2019.
#Post#: 359745--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: brjones Date: October 3, 2018, 7:35 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I'm pretty confident that the main problem for Contreras was
fatigue. As some here have pointed out, he didn't allow himself
to have a real offseason last year--he was immediately working
on getting ready for the season. He caught far more than any
other catcher in baseball this year...I looked it up about a
month ago, and based on pitches caught, he was behind the plate
for something like 8-10 full games worth more pitches than the
second most active catcher in baseball. He had no All Star
break.
And the numbers were there for the first 4 months of the season.
After the game on August 1, he was hitting .283/.372/.458. The
batting average and OBP were career highs (by 1 point and 15
points, respectively). The slugging was down from .494 over his
first two seasons. But a part of that was that a few homers had
turned into triples (he had 5 triples by that point this year;
he had none in 2017 in about the same number of PAs). He had
lost a few extra base hits since 2017, but nothing that would
throw up any warning signs over a 384 PA sample when all the
other numbers looked good. The fact that he just fell off a
cliff for the last two months just fits with him wearing down.
Bryant, though...shoulder injuries are tricky. Especially vague
shoulder issues that don't really have a clear diagnosis.
#Post#: 359748--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: JeffH Date: October 3, 2018, 8:08 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
If a player is on a multiyear contract with an option year, the
luxury tax "hit" for the guaranteed years is the AAV of the
guaranteed years. Does anyone know for certain what the luxury
tax "hit" is for the option year(s)? I presume it's simply the
value of the option. But can anyone confirm?
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page