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#Post#: 361545--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 2, 2018, 7:00 pm
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--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> Mooney has an article on The Athletic that says it's very
unlikely that the Cubs will really pursue Harper (or Machado)
this offseason because of financial reasons. Olney tweeted
something along the same lines this morning.
>
>
HTML https://theathletic.com/630609/2018/11/02/what-the-cole-hamels-option-means-for-the-cubs-and-bryce-harper/
>
> Given Theo's postseason press conference about how the lineup
was broken and how they needed to start seeing performance
instead of potential, I don't see how they can just bring back
the same group of players and try again. If Harper and Machado
aren't options, I don't really see how they transform the broken
lineup in any meaningful way without adding at least two
hitters. But the only other free agent hitters that I see as a
potential fit are the second tier outfielders--Brantley,
Pollock, and McCutchen. Brantley and Pollock are scary because
of their injury histories, and McCutchen is scary because of how
much he has already declined.
>
> It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out. Maybe
Theo can pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a way to move 2/3
of the money tied up in the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler
contracts.
>
--- End Quote ---
If that is indeed the case, either Theo is operating under
financial restrictions he wasn't expecting to when he made those
comments, or his plan is to trade core guys in order to reshape
the lineup.
Either way, with the income the club generates and a huge new TV
deal coming in a year, that would be pretty disappointing.
There's really no reason the Cubs shouldn't be operating in the
same salary zip code as the likes of Boston, NYY and LAD.
#Post#: 361551--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 2, 2018, 7:45 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> There's really no reason the Cubs shouldn't be operating in
the same salary zip code as the likes of Boston, NYY and LAD.
>
--- End Quote ---
In the Cubs' defense, Fangraphs had an article today about team
payrolls. Once arb raises are factored in, it appears the Cubs
have the highest 2019 payroll in baseball right now.
That said...I was listening to The Athletic's Cubs podcast
earlier, and I agree with what Sharma had to say--the Cubs are
at a position right now where they should be willing to blow
past all luxury tax limits. They are about to get the new TV
contract money, and they'll have a lot of money coming off the
payroll in the next two years (Zobrist, Morrow, Strop, and
Cishek after 2019; the entire rotation (including Chatwood)
outside of Darvish after 2020).
The competitive window is as open as it's going to be for the
next two years, so go all out for Harper now and give him an opt
out in 2-3 years.
#Post#: 361553--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 2, 2018, 7:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
By the way, we've heard some speculation regarding Whit
Merrifield in the last 2-3 weeks, but nothing concrete. But the
Cubs' apparent lack of money really makes me wonder if he might
become one of the front office's top targets (assuming they buy
his development as a hitter over the last two seasons). He's
still a year away from arbitration, but the fact that he'll be
30 next season limits his trade value. And Dayton Moore really
seems opposed to a full rebuild, so the Royals might actually
match up with the players the Cubs have to offer.
#Post#: 361555--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: davep
Date: November 2, 2018, 8:49 pm
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--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim
Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to
waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad
teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going
to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with
the Cubs.
>
--- End Quote ---
If I were in charge of a bad team, I would claim Gore and keep
him until the trading deadline to see of a playoff team like the
Cubs (hopefully) will trade something decent for him.
#Post#: 361556--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 2, 2018, 8:55 pm
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He netted cash this year.
#Post#: 361559--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: craig
Date: November 2, 2018, 9:55 pm
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--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> Based on my first calculation, the Cubs will have a luxury tax
figure of around $227 without bringing in any outside talent.
The luxury tax threshold for 2019 is $206.
>
--- End Quote ---
Craig Jeff Initial Payroll Projection Luxury Tax $$$$. (I'm
trying to put in some keywords so I can search and find his post
weeks from now! :):):))
1. deeg and br, I don't think I could actually fault the Cubs
too badly as cheap for going to battle >$20+ over the luxury
line.
2. Jeff can answer better, but they're going to need to spend
some additional spread-it-around cash, no? [Maybe a couple of
relief guys, maybe a LaStella replacement; maybe a Russell
replacement; possibly a Caratini replacement...]
3. Are any thrift guys (Caratini, La Stella, and Bote) or minor
leaguers ready to replace a movable salary? Not sure. With no
farm system, it's hard to replace a salary you might trade. And
salaries like Heyward, Kinsler, Chatwood, and Darvish nobody
wants. So, kinda hard to free up any spending money.
4. Theo presumably plans for a sharply programmed salary spiral
for the next couple of years. Baez, Contreras, Bryant,
Schwarber, Almora, Hendricks, Theo ***hopes*** they'll be
earning big jumps next year. The only way not is if they play
badly.
In a sense they're kinda stuck. Building with the young guys
gave a window of free years for each of them; that window has
closed for all but Happ. The internal salaries will continue to
inflate through the arbitration years. And with no farm system,
buying talent is their avenue to new talent. But already being
way over the luxury tax, and with the payroll programmed to
continue to spiral during upcoming arb years, it's going to be
hard to just keep buying their wants.
I think it's going to be some tinkering, going back to battle
with largely the same personnel, and hoping better health will
make it work out better.
#Post#: 361560--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 2, 2018, 10:08 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Packaging Edwards or Russell to move Chatwood’s contract could
be a possibility. I’d rather just keep him and try to fix him
but that may not be an option.
Craig, the issue for me is that this is a unicorn year for FA
because Harper at his age is a unicorn free agent. If you
believe he’s the guy that could make the difference and choose
to sit out because of financial concerns, that’d be a real
shame.
#Post#: 361561--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 2, 2018, 10:43 pm
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I really think some bad team with money (maybe the Tigers?)
should trade for Chatwood and take on a significant portion of
his contract. They have nothing to lose, but he has great stuff
and real upside in the very unlikely scenario that he figures
out his command.
The alternative is giving someone like Jeremy Hellickson $6
million with the hope that he'll be good enough to get some
other team's 17th best prospect at the deadline. Why not bet on
Chatwood's upside instead?
--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Packaging Edwards or Russell to move Chatwood’s contract could
be a possibility.
>
--- End Quote ---
I don't think packaging Russell with anyone helps. He's just not
that good at anything but defense, and it's a big PR hit to add
him. I'd bet a cheap steak dinner that he's non-tendered in a
few weeks. But Theo's good, maybe he'll convince some other team
to take him.
--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> the issue for me is that this is a unicorn year for FA because
Harper at his age is a unicorn free agent.
--- End Quote ---
The real unicorn was Yelich last offseason. I'm never giving
this up--Cubs should've been all in on him last year.
#Post#: 361562--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: brs2
Date: November 2, 2018, 10:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
In the absence of these articles, I would not necessarily read
the Smyly trade as a sign of financial limitation. The Hamels
option was very unique, and gave the Cubs momentary $6mm
leverage over the Rangers. With a Hamels signing, Smyly’s
opportunities to start with the Cubs are greatly reduced, and $7
is a high price for a complete unknown in the bullpen. Plus
because of Smyly’s uncertainty / risk, relying on him in 2019
would make it more difficult to move other pieces (and the Cubs
may have felt the need to bring in another BOR starter FA). ….
So at the end of the day, the Cubs increase payroll by only $7
($14 for Hamels - $7 from Smyly), give themselves more depth /
flexibility in the rotation, clear a roster space, and move an
unnecessary contract to perhaps the only team which had any
incentive to take him with his risk / salary (without bundling a
better piece with him). For the Rangers, they essentially get
the Smyly spin of the wheel for $1. And Smyly gets a better
chance to start. Win-Win-Win…..
#Post#: 361566--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
DIR By: guest61
Date: November 3, 2018, 2:34 am
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This team can be fixed without investing 300 million dollars
into one single player.
I'd like to see us look into acquiring a real leadoff man and
another closer.
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