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#Post#: 360079--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 10, 2018, 10:22 am
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It seems like everybody is focusing on what Cubs hitters are
going to get moved in the offseason, but I think the pitching is
more interesting.
If the Cubs bring back Hamels that sets the rotation up for
Lester
Hamels
Darvish
Hendricks
Quintana
Then at the major league level you have
Montgomery
Smyly
Chatwood
In the minors at AA or above
Alzolay
Steele
Lange
Throw in Mills who I believe is out of options and that is going
to make the rotation and bullpen crowded with guys I'm not sure
you want to lose, but I'm not sure they really fit in a bullpen
either. Theo at his press conference said he doesn't want to
trade any starting pitching, but doesn't he kind of have if the
bring back Hamels?
#Post#: 360081--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: method Date: October 10, 2018, 10:37 am
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One of the hitters is going to get traded away to get someone to
take chatwood's salary off their hands.
#Post#: 360082--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 10, 2018, 11:17 am
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Len Kasper
‏
Courtesy @joe_sheehan, the team that hits more HRs in this
post-season is 11-0 & there's been a 3.5% increase in runs via
the HR compared to the regular season. Soooooooo.......yeah.
Kinda ruins some analysis when it boils down to "Just hit a
bunch of homers," but that's kinda it
Also
HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/10/report-cubs-offered-kris-bryant-extension-well-north-of-200-million-but-bryant-declined/
#Post#: 360083--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: BearHit Date: October 10, 2018, 11:22 am
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Man's gotta feed his family...
#Post#: 360087--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: craig Date: October 10, 2018, 12:20 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=523.msg360082#msg360082
date=1539188251]
..the team that hits more HRs in this post-season is 11-0 &
there's been a 3.5% increase in runs via the HR compared to the
regular season. Soooooooo.......yeah. Kinda ruins some analysis
when it boils down to "Just hit a bunch of homers," but that's
kinda it[/quote]
Think the 3.5% is kinda trivial and small-sample meaningless,
probably?
* Does he mean 3.5% higher than MLB normal (which includes
no-power teams like Cubs and Padres factored in?
*Or is the 3.5% higher than what the big-power HR-hitting teams
like LA, Milwaukee, Boston, and Houston themselves were doing in
the regular season?
I think he's meaning that it's slightly higher than league-wise
normal, but probably not high relative to what was normal for
the final four during the regular season? I'm sure all the
final four teams were way more than 3.5% above regular-season
league average during the season, right?
Like I always say, against post-season pitching it's harder than
ever to bundle multiple singles and doubles in a single inning.
Post-season pitchers still make mistakes, just not as many. So
I think the relative frequency of scoring via multiple BIP-hits
is seriously reduced, and the relative importance of the
occasional HR becomes more determinative than ever.
#Post#: 360090--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 10, 2018, 1:01 pm
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From 1968 to 2018 seasons most HR
2017 6105
2000 5693
2016 5610
2018 5585
1999 5528
1987 is #23 and is the first year that isn't late 90's or in the
2000. Some of that is there are more teams so here are the ISO
Top 5 ISO
2017 .171
2000 .167
2001 .163
1999 .163
2006 .163
1987 jumps all the way to #19
Just for fun from 1968 to 1983
1977 is tops with 3644 HR and an ISO .137
1981 is the lowest with 1781 HR and the lowest ISO is 1968 at
.104
More fun with numbers. The Yankees hit 267 HR this year. That
would be 14.99% of the total hit in MLB in 1981. The Marlins
where last at 128 in 1981. The A's led 1981 with 104 HR and the
Yankees were second at 100. The Padres where last at 32. The
Yankees had the highest ISO in 1981 at .139, it would have
ranked 28th in 2018 by .001 above the Tigers.
#Post#: 360091--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: ticohans Date: October 10, 2018, 1:13 pm
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Kaplan reporting that Bryant turned down a contract extension
worth "well-north" of $200M. Wow.
#Post#: 360094--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Bennett Date: October 10, 2018, 1:59 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=523.msg360091#msg360091
date=1539195216]
Kaplan reporting that Bryant turned down a contract extension
worth "well-north" of $200M. Wow.
[/quote]
[quote author=Bleacher Nation]
Dave Kaplan just dropped a bomb on ESPN1000 today, reporting
that he’s heard from a source that the Cubs approached Kris
Bryant and his agent Scott Boras “in the last several months”
about a “massive extension” worth “well north of $200 million.”
That extension was – again, according to the source – turned
down by Bryant and Boras, who preferred instead to go
year-to-year in arbitration.
[/quote]
A lot more
HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/10/report-cubs-offered-kris-bryant-extension-well-north-of-200-million-but-bryant-declined/
#Post#: 360096--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 10, 2018, 4:32 pm
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Wouldn't shock me to see Quintana dealt for either pitching
prospects or offense if the Cubs really believe Smyly is capable
of pitching like he did pre-surgery.
#Post#: 360097--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: brjones Date: October 10, 2018, 4:41 pm
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I don't think Quintana would bring much back at this point in a
trade after his down year. I'd also be very reluctant to trade a
reliably healthy starter when you don't really know what to
expect from Lester or Darvish going forward.
Smyly has been far better as a reliever in his career. He was a
difference maker in that role in 2013 as a Tiger; he's been more
of an average #3/#4 starter type when in the rotation. They
should pencil him in as a reliever.
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