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#Post#: 359978--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 8, 2018, 11:35 am
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=523.msg359953#msg359953
date=1538963630]
An awful lot of guys decline precipitously in CF by their early
30's. It's a serious worry.
[/quote]
How old is the MLB leader in DRS and UZR/150 at the CF position
in 2018?
#Post#: 359982--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 8, 2018, 4:23 pm
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How does citing the stats of 1 guy have any relevance?
#Post#: 360017--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 8, 2018, 10:26 pm
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That maybe elite defenders can still play defense at 32, and
they aren’t destined to decline.
#Post#: 360018--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 9, 2018, 12:00 am
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"It was cooler than normal last Tuesday. Ergo, climate change
is a myth."
#Post#: 360028--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 9, 2018, 8:49 am
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Edmonds didn’t decline until 35. How about you cite one elite
defender that declined a lot before age 32 that wasn’t due to
conditioning or injury?
#Post#: 360050--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 9, 2018, 4:10 pm
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HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/09/the-initial-2019-cubs-arbitration-projections-are-out-bryant-baez-hendricks-russell-more/
#Post#: 360053--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: craig Date: October 9, 2018, 4:43 pm
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Thanks blue. Those are pleasantly modest, lower than I
expected.
#Post#: 360059--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: davep Date: October 9, 2018, 5:42 pm
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ArizonaPhil's take on 2019 Cubs payroll and free agent
possibilities:
So the Cubs will be about $10M inder the 2019 Competitive
Balance Tax ("Luxury Tax") threshold even if they sign no
free-agents, and that's even after they decline the 2019 $20M
option on Cole Hamels (which they almost certainly will). They
would save about $5M AAV by non-tendering Addison Russell (which
would get their AAV+PBC down to $190M), but otherwise there
won't be much wiggle-room unless the Cubs are able to unload
contracts in a trade.
It's possible that the Cubs will attempt to trade one or two
arbitration-eligibles like Kyle Schwarber and/or Mike Montgomery
for prospects, but even doing that won't save more than about
another $5M AAV combined, and they probably couldn't get
"A"-level prospects back for either player. And while Jose
Quintana might seem like a trade-candidate because he is making
$10.5M (presuming the Cubs pick-up his club option) in 2019, the
AAV of his contract is only $4.45M because he signed his
multi-year deal when he was still pre-arbitration, so there
isn't much savings in 2019 payroll AAV if the Cubs trade
Quintana.
Otherwise, unless they can find takers for Tyler Chatwood,
Brandon Kintzler, Brian Duensing, and/or Drew Smyly (whose
combined contracts are worth $25M AAV), or eat a large chunk of
his salary ($23M AAV) and trade Heyward (who now can be traded -
see comment below), the Cubs are pretty-much stuck payroll-wise
going into the post- 2018 off-season.
And so unless they are OK with exceeding the CBT threshold (and
suffer the penalties that go along with that), there is almost
no way they can sign a free-agent like Bryce Harper or Manny
Machado to a high-AAV contract this coming off-season, and in
fact they probably couldn't even re-sign somebody like RHRP
Jesse Chavez without exceeding the CBT threshold unless they
non-tender Russell or trade Schwarber and Montgomery.
#Post#: 360061--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 9, 2018, 6:37 pm
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Why is CBT for '19 even being debated? Zero chance we don't go
over it.
#Post#: 360062--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: brjones Date: October 9, 2018, 6:49 pm
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Yeah, the Cubs have the cash to do exactly what the Dodgers,
Yankees, and Red Sox do. Based just on financial penalties, they
should be over the threshold most years going forward.
From MLB.com (link below), it appears that the only draft
penalty occurs if they go at least $40 million over (which would
be spending at least $246 million next year). And the only
penalty would be that their first pick in the draft would drop
10 spots (unless the Cubs have one of the first 6 picks--then
their second pick would drop 10 spots instead). That shouldn't
be a big concern for the Cubs either--dropping from the 26th
pick in the draft to the 36th pick isn't a big deal if it means
you can sign Harper instead of, say, AJ Pollock. The Cubs
shouldn't be picking high enough in the draft for that to be a
really meaningful penalty.
HTML http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
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