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#Post#: 359884--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: brjones Date: October 5, 2018, 10:26 pm
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If some team thinks Kintzler's true talent is closer to the
version that was closing for the Twins a season and a half ago,
$5 million isn't much to take on. It also doesn't take too much
of an ego for a player with recent success to think he can make
more than that on the open market.
I think they can dump a pretty good portion of Chatwood's
contract. He was very popular on the free agent market last
year, so it's possible some other team will still want to take a
chance on him. And if the Cubs eat enough, he's a good buy low
guy for someone like the Tigers who have money but few payroll
commitments (and could flip him easily at the deadline if he
pitches well). Or maybe the Padres or Angels, who have very weak
pitching staffs, and should probably prefer a high risk high
reward guy to a similarly priced bottom of rotation free agent.
#Post#: 359885--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 5, 2018, 10:34 pm
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Laughable to think Kintzler would decline his option or that
another team would take him. We’ll either have to pay down 3
million or so or throw in a decent prospect to get some other
team to absorb that deal.
As for Hamels, I do think some sort of multi-year renegotiated
deal is the most likely solution, though it would be great I’d
it were no longer than 2 years. Most likely three.
#Post#: 359887--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: CUBluejays Date: October 5, 2018, 11:41 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=523.msg359883#msg359883
date=1538794878]
Think some of that is a little too optimistic.
1. "Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler" and "Maybe he'll opt
out ... If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take
him off the Cubs hands"sounds kinda easier than it is?
*With guaranteed contracts, either you pay them or you exchange
them for somebody else's repulsive contract.
2. Cots: Did you check their numbers and are you sure they're
good? When I look at their spreadsheet, they've got Quintana
listed at $1 and Strop at $0.5? I'm not saying your numbers are
wrong, just asking. Or maybe I don't understand their
spreadsheet, and that's format for entering options. But, I
htink we can safely say the Cubs aren't likley to opt out of
either Q or Strop.
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/pubhtml
3. Jeff: Your numbers are usually pretty good. I might've
guessed a little higher for each of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks?
Bryant was already $11 as an A1, so I'd guess he'd get a bigger
jump than only $2?
Baez is coming off almost-MVP season; may not match Bryant's $11
A1, but I'd think he'd be somewhat nearer $11 than $4.8?
Hendricks too, I'd think he'll be variably north of $8.5.
[/quote]
1) I mean it will take prospects. A non-contender could take
Kintzler and a prospect for a $5 million chance he could get
flipped at the deadline. The prospect cost wouldn’t be that
high. He can at least eat innings for them. Chatwood at 2/$25
isn’t horrible for a fifth starter and if you think you can fix
his control issues he could have some value. He’d take a better
prospect, but you aren’t looking at a top prospect.
2) MLB Trade rumors usually does pretty bang on arb numbers in a
month or two. I’m not sure how the options are handled for the
luxury tax. Contracts are AAV so Quintana was $4.2 million
luxury tax number vs his $8.85 million salary. I think his
option is $9 million ish so I’m not sure if that gets averaged
vs it being just considered a 1 year contract.
The numbers I took where from the luxury tax tab which is
different than the salary tab. I’m not too concerned about the
Cubs having salary limit vs them going too high on the luxury
tax.
#Post#: 359896--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: wmljohn Date: October 6, 2018, 8:05 am
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I say the Cubs sign both Machado and Harper
#Post#: 359903--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: Deeg Date: October 6, 2018, 11:13 am
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Good luck with that one.
#Post#: 359904--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: davep Date: October 6, 2018, 11:15 am
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[quote author=brjones link=topic=523.msg359870#msg359870
date=1538781928]
With the new Cubs TV network, it seems like they should be
joining the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox in the category of
teams who don't really care about the luxury tax. Once every 3-5
years, they'll try to dip below it to reset the penalties. But
even a record-setting Harper contract shouldn't rule out other
big moves (such as keeping Bryant or Baez) in the future.
[/quote]
I don't think that money would be the issue. But I believe that
reduction of draft and International signing ability is
something that this front office would take very seriously. I
have not reviewed the rules, but if it is only a problem of
money the first year, it would not be a concern, but if it means
the loss of one or two first round draft choices and the
inability to sign tot international free agents, I doubt that
they would allow a long term contract to get them into a bind.
#Post#: 359907--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: chgojhawk Date: October 6, 2018, 12:05 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=523.msg359904#msg359904
date=1538842505]
I don't think that money would be the issue. But I believe that
reduction of draft and International signing ability is
something that this front office would take very seriously. I
have not reviewed the rules, but if it is only a problem of
money the first year, it would not be a concern, but if it means
the loss of one or two first round draft choices and the
inability to sign tot international free agents, I doubt that
they would allow a long term contract to get them into a bind.
[/quote]
You are correct. They will exceed the luxury tax for a year,
but they are very concerned about the ramifications for
exceeding the luxury tax in consecutive seasons. Then again if
they have longer contracts the hit is less. Also some contracts
will come off the books or be reduced after next season.
Zobrist will go from 16.5 down to 12.5 this coming year and then
0 the following year. Lester will drop from 27.5 to an even 20M
in 2020. Between those 2 that saves 20M. Add in the $9M added
prior to the luxury tax for this season and we may have more
wiggle room even before the next collective bargaining
agreement.
For this coming year Darvish will drop from 25M to 20M but then
goes back to 22M in 2020.
Don't be surprised to see the team go over the luxury tax this
year, but then try to wiggle down under it in 2020.
#Post#: 359909--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: JeffH Date: October 6, 2018, 12:34 pm
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A player's salary dropping over the course of a multiyear
contract is irrelevant for luxury tax purposes.
The luxury tax impact is the average annual value of the
guaranteed portion of the contract.
#Post#: 359916--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: davep Date: October 6, 2018, 3:29 pm
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[quote author=chgojhawk link=topic=523.msg359907#msg359907
date=1538845505]
You are correct. They will exceed the luxury tax for a year,
but they are very concerned about the ramifications for
exceeding the luxury tax in consecutive seasons. Then again if
they have longer contracts the hit is less. Also some contracts
will come off the books or be reduced after next season.
Zobrist will go from 16.5 down to 12.5 this coming year and then
0 the following year. Lester will drop from 27.5 to an even 20M
in 2020. Between those 2 that saves 20M. Add in the $9M added
prior to the luxury tax for this season and we may have more
wiggle room even before the next collective bargaining
agreement.
For this coming year Darvish will drop from 25M to 20M but then
goes back to 22M in 2020.
Don't be surprised to see the team go over the luxury tax this
year, but then try to wiggle down under it in 2020.
[/quote]
I have no idea how to verify it, but I believe Jeff is correct.
My understanding was that the hit to the luxury tax is based on
the average of the guaranteed years, and will continue until the
contract is fulfilled or transferred to another team. And if
their payroll will go up substantially this year just because of
those entering arbitration, I expect the increase next year will
be even greater.
#Post#: 359922--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '19
By: JeffH Date: October 6, 2018, 8:19 pm
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Watching the playoffs makes one realize - sadly - how talent
deficient we are.
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