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#Post#: 13334--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: buff
Date: June 5, 2011, 5:46 pm
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I think Bundy and Starling are the 2 best talents in the draft.
I hope we can get one but it doesn't look realistic.
#Post#: 13353--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: JR
Date: June 5, 2011, 7:19 pm
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From an article on ESPN called "Eight Teams That Need to Draft
Well".
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs went for signability last June and haven't fared well
early in drafts under Tim Wilken, at least not yet. Brett
Jackson has a chance to make an impact, as does Andrew Cashner,
but the club's current 40-man roster consists of just seven
players drafted by the club, and only one, catcher Geovany Soto,
has made an All-Star team.With strong organizations at the top
of their division in the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati
Reds, the Cubs have to find a way to add high-quality players to
their organization without trading away young talent in order to
get it, as they did last winter in acquiring Matt Garza. They've
done well on the international market -- Carlos Marmol, Carlos
Zambrano, Starlin Castro -- but the draft has been a fairly
empty cupboard and has left their farm system in the bottom half
of the league.
#Post#: 13354--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: June 5, 2011, 7:20 pm
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I'll play the pick three game, not predicting the player(s) that
I think the Cubs will pick but rather the players I like the
most (and that I think will probably be there at number nine),
after reading some scouting reports, seeing some stats and
watching a few videos.
1. Josh Bell OF HS Texas
2. Taylor Jungmann RHP Univ of Texas
3. Matt Barnes RHP UConn
I'll throw out Archie Bradley (RHP HS OK) as a wild card because
I don't think he's going to be there at nine.
It looks like Bubba Starling isn't going to be there, either,
from everything I've read in the past week.
When it comes to the draft, I prefer college pitchers to high
schoolers; hitters over pitchers; left-handed hitters and
switch-hitters over righties and more athletic position players
to corner men in the higher rounds.
#Post#: 13357--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: JR
Date: June 5, 2011, 7:28 pm
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I'm like Dave, I don't know the players well enough to go for
one over another. Basically the top guys in a draft all sound
like future superstars, but we know half of these guys or more
aren't going to amount to anything.
Pretty much you've just got to hope we've done our homework and
we pick one of the guys who does eventually turn into a star
player.
#Post#: 13359--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: JeffH
Date: June 5, 2011, 7:33 pm
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--- Quote from: JR link ---
> Pretty much you've just got to hope we've done our homework
and we pick one of the guys who does eventually turn into a star
player.
>
--- End Quote ---
Well, you know there's virtually no chance of that.
#Post#: 13388--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: craig
Date: June 5, 2011, 11:21 pm
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Guys who fail usually do so for one of two reasons:
1. They get hurt, or
2. Bad scouting.
Suppose X is a pitcher, and I'm really confident in my scouting
that he'll be pretty good. Y is a position player, and there is
some risk that he'll not work out.
How to balance the risk of the hitter who might not be good
enough at contact, versus the pitcher who inevitably has the
high risk of injury?
#Post#: 13390--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: Deeg
Date: June 5, 2011, 11:47 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Guys who fail usually do so for one of two reasons:
> 1. They get hurt, or
> 2. Bad scouting.
>
> Suppose X is a pitcher, and I'm really confident in my
scouting that he'll be pretty good. Y is a position player, and
there is some risk that he'll not work out.
>
> How to balance the risk of the hitter who might not be good
enough at contact, versus the pitcher who inevitably has the
high risk of injury?
>
>
--- End Quote ---
That's why scouts don't work for free. And that's why some
scouts are good, and some aren't.
In my view common sense dictates that if a position player and a
pitcher have a comparable ceiling and relative risk, you take
the position player. If a college player and a high-schooler
have a similar ceiling and risk, you take the college player.
It seems obvious but I'm not sure every scouting director feels
that way.
Obviously, the wheat is separated from the chaff when you have
to decide just what the equation is. How much better does a
pitcher have to be to justify the risk? How much better does a
high-schooler have to be?
#Post#: 13391--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: davep
Date: June 5, 2011, 11:47 pm
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I'm not sure that "bad scouting" is the proper term here,
although I do not downplay variations in the ability of
different scouts. But no scout can be right all the time. A
scout can not know for certain that a particular prospect will
perform as hoped any more than an Admissions Officer in a
University can know for certain that a particular student will
graduate in 4 years. Can a scout know for sure that the body
changes that occur after the eighteenth year will improve,
rather than hurt the coordination of a particular prospect?
Can he know for certain that he has the mental tenacity to put
in the work necessary to succeed?
I doubt that the best scout is right even as much as half the
time. Less than half of first round choices ever play regularly
in the big leagues, let alone become all stars. There is just
too much guesswork involved.
#Post#: 13397--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: June 6, 2011, 12:33 am
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It's looking more and more like the only positive benefit of the
Garza trade might be to save the owners some money when the Cubs
draft second or third in 2012. and they don't have to pony up
for the #1 pick.
#Post#: 13403--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2011 Draft
DIR By: Chris27
Date: June 6, 2011, 3:45 am
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There's some quality draft info, scouting reports etc at the
following links:
HTML http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2011/
HTML http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5527
HTML http://mlbdraftguide.com/1/
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