DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Archives
*****************************************************
#Post#: 346334--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: ben Date: June 5, 2018, 8:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Those guys (our front office) are really smart...who are we to
question them?
Finally - after more than a century of less than stellar
organizational management - we have leaders who deserve the
benefit of the doubt because of the almost unbelievably
FANTASTIC results they've produced leading the Cubs.
There's also this reality: they do what they do for a living,
know WAY more about baseball than any of us, AND they have about
100 times more information than any of us. So the smart money
goes with our front office re the decisions they make at the
time they are made.
But counter opinions are always welcome here and will,
occasionally, be correct. No front office will ever get all of
their thousands of decisions right.
#Post#: 346335--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: Jes Beard Date: June 5, 2018, 8:44 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Dave23 link=topic=513.msg346290#msg346290
date=1528164613]
I wonder if he and the Cubs agreed to a below-slot deal prior to
his selection.
Some really nice college arms still on the board...
[/quote]
If so, you KNOW with our FO that it is all part of a brilliant
plan to bring further championships and prolonged league
dominance for our fine warriors in blue!
sorry if I don't quite have ben's rah-rah style quite mastered
yet....
#Post#: 346336--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: CUBluejays Date: June 5, 2018, 8:53 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Playtwo link=topic=513.msg346332#msg346332
date=1528204287]
Richan had a K/BB of 101/13 over 89 2/3 innings this season,
with a fastball topping in the mid 90s. Perhaps they see a guy
with great command who has ML potential if he can develop
another effective pitch.
[/quote]
He was a reliever to starter conversion for SDSU and apparently
lost some stuff as the season went on and had some bad games
towards the end of season that made his overall numbers worse.
As weird as it sounds a fastball topping out in the mid nineties
for a righty is pretty league average now.
#Post#: 346337--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: Jes Beard Date: June 5, 2018, 9:03 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=513.msg346299#msg346299
date=1528168821]
Hoerner's HR power has been increasing: 0 > 1 > 2.
Not much speed.
Not sure how good the defense projects.
Wonder if he might project to be something of a Ryan Theriot?
(Maybe Ryan-Theriot-at-his-best?) Theriot had an 8-year, 6.7
WAR career, hit .281. We may not have the best memories, but
prime-Theriot had a .745 OPS one year and hit 7 HR's the next,
with .387 and .345 OBP. *IF* you had a guy who could do that
for longer than two years, that might be a good pick.
Maybe poor comp; Theriot walked a lot, plus regularly stole 20+
bases. Hoerner doesn't walk, and obviously doesn't have that
kind of speed.
Deeg mentioned RH LaStella.... If LaStella could play a good
SS/2B, I'd love to have that.
But, LaStella is kind of amazing as hitter, pretty sure not
getting that.
[/quote]
I was a huge early supporter of Theriot and had hopes that that
Hawk Harrelson will to win, and what appeared to be his
intelligence, would help him produce far more in the majors than
his minor league performance indicated we should have expected.
My hopes proved far less than warranted, and then his later
post-Chicago comments even called into serious question his
intelligence, but all of that said, he ended up with an almost
900 game major league career, with a WAR of 6.7, which actually
is a bit better than average for the overall 24th pick, so if
Hoerner is that good, we should be happy. (In Theriot's case,
as a 3rd rounder, that output was extremely good.)
#Post#: 346338--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: Jes Beard Date: June 5, 2018, 9:18 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ben link=topic=513.msg346334#msg346334
date=1528204606]
There's also this reality: they do what they do for a living,
know WAY more about baseball than any of us, AND they have about
100 times more information than any of us. So the smart money
goes with our front office re the decisions they make at the
time they are made.
But counter opinions are always welcome here and will,
occasionally, be correct. No front office will ever get all of
their thousands of decisions right.
[/quote]
Actually, the "smart money" on virtually all draft picks would
be to bet against the pick being close to as good as at least
ten other alternatives.
That is the nature of decisions. MOST decisions by most people
or bodies, whether in the case of draft picks or pretty much any
thing else at any level an in any field of endeavor, are wrong,
in that better options were available and were not chosen. This
is not to say that the decisions cause harm or are
counterproductive or do no good, but simply that they were not
close to being as good as other options.
So second-guessing is to be expected, and quite often can even
appear to display considerable wisdom. The reality is that if
those looking brilliant in pointing out the errors of others had
themselves been making the decisions, they most certainly in
most cases would be making similar decisions of their own, just
as bad, and possibly worse.
So the "smart money" really is NOT with the front office on any
one particular decision. On the big picture, overall, however,
ben is right, that this Front Office has an excellent track
record, and the odds are that overall those decisions are likely
to do quite well compared to those of the rest of MLB.
#Post#: 346340--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: craig Date: June 5, 2018, 9:33 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Richan's 3-year college numbers:
HTML http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=201425
He started most of last year too, and has zero saves. So I'm
not sure the reliever-starter thing isn't kinda typical for a
college pitcher. Limited relief work as freshman, start a bunch
as sophomore, inherit Friday-night-starter role as Junior.
Here are some scouting writeups on Richan:
"Richan was solid, if a bit unspectacular, for San Diego this
season, going 4-6 with a 4.62 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He
picked up 101 strikeouts as compared to a scant 13 walks, but
was way too hittable, allowing 99 hits as well. He's a solid
four-pitch pitcher with nothing overpowering, working in the
88-93 mph with his fastball along with a solid slider on most
nights to go with a curveball and changeup, both of which can be
thrown for strikes."
"Junior righthander Paul Richan has a strong and sturdy,
6-foot-3, 200-pound build. He’s been used as a weekend starter
this year after coming out of the bullpen in previous seasons
and has shown good stuff with promising results, including a
42-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33 innings of work. However,
he didn’t have his best performance against Santa Clara at
Fowler Park in mid-March, allowing five earned runs on 10 base
hits, although he did strike out eight in his seven innings of
work while moving to 1-3 on the year.
"Working rom the first base side of the rubber with a direct
stride to home plate, Richan’s fastball worked in the 89-91 mph
range, touching 92-93 several times while running his fastball
to the arm-side corner. He also has the ability to cut the pitch
in on lefthanded hitters. He also throws both a curveball and a
slider with feel for both pitches. The curveball sat in the
upper-70s, hanging one late in the game that was hit for a home
run. The slider has late action in the low-80s and he also
throws a solid changeup, maintaining his arm speed well on the
pitch, which has good fade and sink."
Those reports, working 89-91, and working in the 88-93 range,
would seem to profile him in the finesse below-average velocity
mode that the Cubs seem to typically pick up.
#Post#: 346341--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: ticohans Date: June 5, 2018, 9:38 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I wonder if they feel confident they can make some mechanical
tweaks and unlock more velo.
Current package is not inspiring at all, and would not seem to
indicate 2nd rounder. But if you add 3mph to the fastball, all
of a sudden a guy who can control 4 average or better pitches
with mid 90’s velo, that’s potential #3 upside. If any of the
secondaries are plus, squint hard and maybe there’s a #2,
assuming added velo?
#Post#: 346342--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: craig Date: June 5, 2018, 9:39 am
---------------------------------------------------------
BA on Richan,
"Scouting Report: Richan supplanted Nick Sprengel as San Diego’s
top starter and most-desired draft prospect this spring,
launched in part by a dominant outing against Michigan at the
Tony Gwynn Classic. Richan is a polished righthander with a
four-pitch mix, headlined by a plus slider. At his best,
Richan’s fastball sits 91-92 mph and touches 94, and he can mix
in an average changeup as well. He uses his fastball and
changeup to get ahead and then finishes batters with his slider.
Richan tired as the season went on and sat more 88-91 mph toward
the end, cooling some of the early interest. His fastball
command also slipped at the end of the season and resulted in a
lot of contact, although he still threw strikes. A poor finish
made his season numbers look pedestrian, but Richan showed
evaluators enough early in the year that they still consider him
a talent worthy of a pick in the top five rounds."
#Post#: 346343--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: craig Date: June 5, 2018, 9:42 am
---------------------------------------------------------
BA ranks:
Brennen Davis - 133
Cole Roederer - 161
Paul Richan - 164
PG ranks:
Brennen Davis - 145
Cole Roederer - 162
Paul Richan - 335
MLB ranks:
[font=Verdana]Brennen Davis - 145[/font][font=Verdana]Cole
Roederer - unrankedPaul Richan - 175
Pretty obviously Cubs have their own scouts and don't pay tons
of attention to perspectives of PG or BA. [/font]
#Post#: 346344--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
By: craig Date: June 5, 2018, 9:52 am
---------------------------------------------------------
BA writeup on Roederer:
*They say he will be an expensive sign. Not sure that's
pertinent. They ranked him in the 160's; 2nd-round slot might
seem expensive for a 6th-round guy.
*They do talk about 3rd-round consideration before getting
injured again.
*I think I read he hit .394. That doesn't seem very high, for a
high-school prospect? Yet scouting reports seem to like his
hitting. Who knows. (I recall wondering about this with
Vitters, too. Super nice scouting reports on his swing, yet he
didn't hit .400 in HS.....)
"School: Hart HS, Santa Clarita, Calif.
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 175 | B-T: L-L | Commit/Drafted: UCLA
Scouting Report: Roederer is a small, athletic,
lefthanded-hitting center fielder who began showing big power
this year, drawing comparisons to Andrew Benintendi. He
catapulted into third-round consideration before he separated
his right (non-throwing) shoulder horsing around with teammates
after practice and missed the final month of the season.
Roederer is a toolsy player with bat speed who got stronger and
reworked his swing to add power this season. He began launching
long home runs on par with anyone in the region, enough for
optimistic scouts to project him as a 20-25 home run hitter. The
power rounded out Roederer’s well-rounded toolset. He is an
above-average runner whose speed plays up in center field due to
his advanced instincts and reads, and his arm is suitably
average. With hints of all five tools and growing power,
Roederer has the upside of an above-average everyday center
fielder, but other scouts are skeptical of his size and injury
history, which also includes a pulled hamstring this year. He is
strongly committed to UCLA and will be an expensive sign."
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page