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#Post#: 346454--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 6, 2018, 1:12 pm
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Out of the first 20 picks, only 4 HS guys, 1 CC.
Hoerner, Davis, Roederer, Herron, Franklin, Artis, Reynolds seem
interesting to me.
Today the Cubs picked Riley Thompson, RHP, Lousiville. He
throws tops out at 100, sits mid 90's with a decent breaking
ball He has 1 TJS and a shoulder issue earlier in the year. His
stats do not match his stuff, but he's maybe the most
interesting pitcher so far. With the health issues I wonder if
they will try him in the bullpen.
#Post#: 346456--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: JR
Date: June 6, 2018, 1:34 pm
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--- Quote from: chgojhawk link ---
>
> Seems like the "Draft" thread is getting far less attention
than in years past.
>
--- End Quote ---
I kind of wonder if part of it is it's just tough to be creative
in the draft when you're picking near the bottom or don't have a
first rounder at all, which has been the case in recent seasons.
When you don't have a ton of bonus pool money, it's tough to
game the system to throw a million dollar offer at someone later
in the draft. There certainly hasn't been much tricky going on
in this draft. It's basically been take the best slot-value
guys available, and those usually get kind of boring after a
while.
Plus too, maybe from my years of following the draft, the guys
who fall usually fall for good reason. I'm trying to think of
the most successful later round picks the Cubs have had in the
last 15-20 years, and it's tough to think of a lot of good
names. Casey McGehee? Kyle Lohse? Geovany Soto? Jerry
Blevins? Justin Bour? Are those our most successful later
round picks from the Hendry era on? Except for Lohse, I think
all of those guys were pretty conventional, slot value picks
too. Nothing much sexy about most of them when we drafted them
originally.
#Post#: 346472--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: Deeg
Date: June 6, 2018, 4:37 pm
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--- Quote from: chgojhawk link ---
>
> Seems like the "Draft" thread is getting far less attention
than in years past. I was pretty excited about the draft but
have to admit that there are only a couple picks that seem to be
interesting.
>
> Hoerner seems like a likely MLB player though not a huge
upside guy. Franklin, Artis and Mort in Rounds 6, 7 and 8 seem
interesting.
>
> Haven't looked at the Day 3 picks yet.
>
--- End Quote ---
As someone famous surely once said, they don't play the games on
paper. But on paper this is a strikingly uninspiring batch of
picks, which is the main reason you're not seeing much traffic
here, IMO.
#Post#: 346475--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: craig
Date: June 6, 2018, 4:40 pm
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Agree, JR, not sure there's that much to process.
*Before the draft cap, there was tons to process and discuss,
and you never new which late guys might get signed, or how much
the team might be willing to spend.
*Now, you pretty much know they've got a pre-arrange with
anybody they picked. So, signability is not a thing.
*That each of the HS guys already said they'd sign and have an
agreement also kind of takes away much suspense.
*During Day 1, when the media rankings on guys were 50's for
Horner taken at 24, and Mid-100's for the guys taken 60-80, I
wondered if there might be some creative under-slotting going
on, with some cool surprise Day 2. No.
*I think if more of the guys were more highly ranked and had
more scouting reports and video out, that might also generate
more discussion. But with Hoerner the only top-100 guy by media
perspective, there maybe aren't as many gushy reports to post
and discuss, either.
*Perhaps the Cubs approach to pitching also factors. Cubs tend
to go for finesse breaking ball guys; I think big-velocity guys
sometimes prompt more discussion board talk?
#Post#: 346476--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: JR
Date: June 6, 2018, 4:52 pm
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Just did a quick check, and here are the most successful Cubs
draft picks we signed from the 10th round onward since 1998 by
WAR:
Geovany Soto 12.2 (2001)
Eric Hinske 7.8 (1998)
Randy Wells 7.5 (2002)
Jerry Blevins 5.9 (2004)
Justin Bour 4.5 (2009)
Zack Godley 3.0 (2013)
Blake Parker 2.6 (2006)
Casey McGehee 1.5 (2003)
Absolutely nothing sexy about any of those guys when we drafted
them either. No superslot bonuses, no guys who fell due to
signability or injury, etc. Just guys who overachieved and
carved out some pretty respectable careers for themselves.
Basically guys fall late for a reason. The guys who have an
injury concern usually turn out to be damaged goods when you get
them. The guys who are really 2nd to 6th round talents who are
demanding good 1st round money usually show why they aren't
worth it. The guys with an attitude problem usually keep the
attitude problem. Maybe in some ways that's why the later
rounds of the draft have lost some interest for me over time.
The guys who have amounted for something really don't look that
interesting when you draft them. They just work their butts off
and overachieve, and you don't start to notice them until they
force you to.
#Post#: 346478--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: craig
Date: June 6, 2018, 5:03 pm
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This is clearly a pure scouting draft. Well, I guess they all
are. But it seems especially so.
*To me, Hoerner seems like a straightforward save conservative
pick. But it's scouting that thinks there's some useful power
in there, coming off a career-high with 2-college homers this
season.
*The 2nd-round pitcher with the bad ERA, there's got to be some
scouting perspective that past result is not the best predictor
of future performance.
To me, the interest and the story of the draft is mostly about
the two HS outfielders. If the Cubs miss on both of them, it's
a big fail. Suppose Roederer never hits more than Matt Szczur
or Hanneman? And Davis ends up hitting like DJ Wilson or
Hanneman or Winfield Mallory, or Ryan Harvey without the power?
Then it's going to be a fail.
But I think those are the two guys that the Cubs scouted, and
liked, and really put all their scouting and dollar-wise chips
in on. I don't really see where else their overage dollars and
senior-sign money is going, it's pretty much all going to the HS
outfielders. If you hit on either, much less both, it's a great
draft. I'm really interesting and curious and enthused about
those two guys. They are the story of this draft, pretty much.
Or, maybe Kohl Franklin is a bigger part of the story than I
have imagined, and he's a big part too? Obviously money doesn't
prove talent, otherwise little Dunston would be a player. But
I'm going to be really interested to see how much overslot
Franklin gets, and the OFers. It's probably dumb, but the more
those guys are getting and the less Hoerner and Richan and picks
7-10 get, the more it reflects that the HSers are really where
the Cubs set their scouting value.
If Franklin gets $250-300, it's one thing. If he gets $750, it
means they are much more serious about him, which might be a
good thing.
#Post#: 346480--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 6, 2018, 5:15 pm
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I think this draft will rest on what Hoerner does, just like
every other draft. The further you get away from the 1st pick
the harder it is to find useful players.
Since the system is lacking in high end talent I was expecting
some more high school guys.
#Post#: 346484--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: guest61
Date: June 6, 2018, 6:27 pm
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The draft is over: All 30 teams pass for 40 rounds. Luke
Heimlich is not picked.
Good.
#Post#: 346488--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: Bennett
Date: June 6, 2018, 6:54 pm
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[img]
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfC6rJUVAAAg4XG.jpg:small[/img]
#Post#: 346489--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2018
DIR By: Bennett
Date: June 6, 2018, 7:09 pm
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--- Quote from: Bennett link ---
>
> I'd like to see the Cubs give this guy a shot in one of the
later rounds
>
> 9. Ryan Tapani, RHP, Creighton (BA Rank: )
> 4YR • R-Sr. • 6-0 • 190 • R-R • Never Drafted
> Creighton's Friday starter, the son of big league pitcher
Kevin Tapani, has solid feel for pitching and an 88-92 mph
fastball.
>
--- End Quote ---
Ryan Tapani was picked by the Washington Nationals in the 21st
round.
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