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#Post#: 329860--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 6, 2017, 11:42 pm
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Lynn and Cobb will probably go for about the same money. If you
go strictly by career numbers and raw stuff, I don't think
there's any question Lynn is the better pitcher.
#Post#: 329867--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 7, 2017, 7:23 am
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Cobb has much more upside to Lynn. You get the bonus of moving
him from the AL to the NL, which will help his stats. Cobb also
spent the second half, when he had better results, doing a right
version of Rich Hill throwing fastball/curves. Coming off TJS he
lost the feel of his knuckle change which is his best pitch. If
he can get that pitch back he could be a #2/3 for cheap.
Cubs Insider did a piece about Chacin having a better slider
than every pitcher in the game not named Scherzer. His pitch
sequencing was sub optimal and with a change there he could be
significantly better.
Throw in the possibility both Japanese pitchers are coming over
and someone like Chatwood, who isn’t my favorite, there are
plenty of starting options on the market that are better than
poorly controlled fastball pitcher Lynn.
#Post#: 329871--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: November 7, 2017, 8:49 am
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Cobb and Lynn seem pretty close, but I would prefer Cobb. He
has better control and has a better GB/FB ratio.
#Post#: 329873--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 7, 2017, 10:42 am
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--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> Cobb and Lynn seem pretty close, but I would prefer Cobb. He
has better control and has a better GB/FB ratio.
>
--- End Quote ---
Legitimate, of course, but I prefer Lynn. Better velocity, much
better K-rate - and on the whole, better results. I prefer SP
who miss bats, given the choice. In reality, both are probably
#3-4 starters assuming their elbows don't blow up.
#Post#: 329878--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: craig
Date: November 7, 2017, 11:38 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Cobb has much more upside to Lynn. .... Cobb also spent the
second half, when he had better results, doing a right version
of Rich Hill throwing fastball/curves. Coming off TJS he lost
the feel of his knuckle change which is his best pitch. If he
can get that pitch back he could be a #2/3 for cheap.
--- End Quote ---
What I don't understand is why, if he has upside and could
become a #2/#3, we'd think he could be "for cheap". FA pitching
is routinely expensive and in short supply, so supply and demand
means price goes up. The same things you like about him might
also be liked by some, perhaps many, GM's.
So I suspect there's going to be aggressive competition for him,
and the highest bidder is going to need to pay higher/riskier
$$/length than other teams think is reasonable. Almost by
definition, he's going to get more years and dollars than the
rest of the market thinks is good value.
#Post#: 329880--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 7, 2017, 11:48 am
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I guess it depends on what you consider "cheap", but I don't see
anyone arguing either Cobb or Lynn could be had for less than
4-50, 5-65, something like that. Maybe compared to what someone
like Arrieta or Darvish might bring, that might be considered a
good value.
#Post#: 329881--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: November 7, 2017, 11:53 am
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I'll take Cobb for 4/50.
#Post#: 329883--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 7, 2017, 12:33 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> What I don't understand is why, if he has upside and could
become a #2/#3, we'd think he could be "for cheap". FA pitching
is routinely expensive and in short supply, so supply and demand
means price goes up. The same things you like about him might
also be liked by some, perhaps many, GM's.
>
--- End Quote ---
He's only thrown over 150 IP twice, so that is going to be held
against him and make him cheaper. It is a risk, but nobody is
giving him 5 years and Brandon McCarthy is the only pitcher like
him to 4 years and he got 4/$48. I think s 3-4 year deal is
most likely for him. If he had multiple years of 180+ IP he
would get more than what Samardzija got. So he's cheap because
of risks, but he has some upside too.
Cobb has a career ERA-/FIP- of 89/92. His best year is 72/87.
Cobb made an decreasing his change up usage and going with his
fastball/curve. He finished the second half with a 20% K% and
Aug was 25.4% and Sept/Oct was 23.1%. This was after he made an
adjustment in how he pitched and his GB% returned to his career
normal. His release point was off on his split change-up so
there isn't anything saying he can't get his best pitch back.
Lynn on the other hand has a career 88/94 ERA-/FIP- so it is
really close to Cobb, almost identical. Last year though it was
81/113, which isn't reassuring. Looking deeper into his numbers
his K% fell from a career 22.3% to 19.7% last year. His second
half his K% dropped to 17% and his BB% increased to 11.3%. Then
the big problem is his pitch mix. He throws a 4 seam fastball
39%, 2 seam fastball 42.4%, cutter 10.7%. He throws a version
of his fastball 92.1% of the time and his Curve and change up
are below average pitches. His fastball velocity has decreased
and is likely to continue going down making his best
pitch/frequently thrown less effective. So in short Lynn is
losing velocity and has no other pitches to help and is getting
less effective. I would stay far, far away from him.
#Post#: 329884--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: craig
Date: November 7, 2017, 1:15 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> I'll take Cobb for 4/50.
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
> ...nobody is giving him 5 years and Brandon McCarthy is the
only pitcher like him to 4 years and he got 4/$48. I think s
3-4 year deal is most likely for him. ....
--- End Quote ---
I'm with Play, I'd also be happy to sign him for 4/50. For
reasons that you have nicely articulated, blue.
I may be way off, and what do I know. But I'm predicting that
you guys are significantly underselling the market that he's
going to get.
I'm predicting he'll get a deal significantly better than 4/50.
Lots of teams want a pitcher, lots of teams have the capacity to
spend 4/50 and well beyond, and lots of teams are interested and
willing to take a chance. I'm also hesitant to assume that
former deals are a good predictor for what this winter's deals
will go for.
Think he's going well north of $50/4, and that the winning
bidder will be a team that's just willing to take on more and
probably longer risk than the losing bidders. Obviously with
options, a deal can conditionally go beyond 4 years even if it's
not fully guaranteed.
If you want to play it safe, don't dabble in FA. But if you
need a piece, you may need to over-risk and over-spend and
over-length to get that piece. May not be Hoyer and Theo. But
somebody is going to take a chance well north of 4/50, I
think....
#Post#: 329885--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '18
DIR By: davep
Date: November 7, 2017, 1:20 pm
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I would like to see the Cubs sign both Cobb and Lynn, if they
can do each for about 14 million per year. That would finish
the rotation, and should still leave them some money to shore up
the bull pen.
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