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#Post#: 298086--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: craig
Date: November 23, 2016, 12:56 pm
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I'm with you deeg. Don't think the position will impact his
hitting. If he's not hitting, he's going to be frustrated
regardless of which position he's playing.
It's an offensive VORP/defensive VORP question. In simple form,
Heyward/Zobrist or Almora/Heyward.
How much favorable defensive VORP does having Almora in there
versus Zobrist (or Soler); and how negative is the offensive
VORP of Almora vs Zobrist (or Soler).
Is the improved defense with both Almora and Heyward playing
worth 50-points in OPS? 100 points? 150 points?
If Soler is hitting .820, and Almora .670, perhaps the extra
.150-OPS you get with Soler in is worth the decline in defense
and base running.
If Zobrist is hitting .760, and Almora .730, almost certainly
the extra defense from Almora would be worth more than 30-points
of OPS.
Really depends on the offensive-OPS differential, in my view.
#Post#: 298087--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: November 23, 2016, 1:06 pm
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I guess we'll find out how much CF Heyward ends up playing. I'm
guessing not much.
#Post#: 298089--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 23, 2016, 1:42 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> You read the part where Insaidnit wasn't realistic right?
>
> Fangraphs projection is entirely Steamer at this point on
offense. ZIPS hasn't been released. Steamer is projecting him
to have a negative value on defense. The Depth Chart projection
of defense cuts his defensive value from 5.8 in 117 PA to 0.4 in
298 PA. There is where his projected WAR disappears. Steamer
and Depth charts project Inciarte for 2.0 and 2.1 WAR by tanking
his defensive value as well. I would suggest they aren't useful
for this type of player.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yeah, just on offense, Inciarte projects at about FIVE times
Almora's WAR offensive value. Thought your projection was
offense basically the same, so Steamer projection says No.
Look, not really attaching much significance to these
projections, which are mostly fun-and-games, not reality. As
Craig pointed out, most of us don't view this that differently.
Down the road, beyond 2017, Almora possibly, maybe, hopefully,
could be as good, or better than, Inciarte last three seasons.
Let's hope so. But, for near term, very unlikely to happen---so
let's be careful about projecting Almora as Inciarte for near
future. Way too speculative---and Theo has implied as much by
his recent comments. That's the point.
#Post#: 298090--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: November 23, 2016, 1:51 pm
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We'll see what the Cubs think of Almora based on what kind of
left-handed outfielder they bring in. I believe they think more
of Almora than many of you do. I'll be surprised if it
resembles a full-time platoon, but, like I said, we'll see.
#Post#: 298091--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 23, 2016, 1:52 pm
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Joel Sherman says Cubs were in on Brett Cecil and that Cards may
have gone to that 4th guaranteed season in part because they
knew Cubs were interested.
Also, other reports that Cards strongly in on Fowler--who really
is a good fit for Cards. Guessing that won't affect Theo's
thinking about Fowler but maybe it should just a bit.
HTML http://nypost.com/2016/11/23/where-yankees-are-turning-bullpen-eye-after-brett-cecil-flirt/
#Post#: 298094--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 23, 2016, 2:52 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> Yeah, just on offense, Inciarte projects at about FIVE times
Almora's WAR offensive value. Thought your projection was
offense basically the same, so Steamer projection says No.
>
> Look, not really attaching much significance to these
projections, which are mostly fun-and-games, not reality. As
Craig pointed out, most of us don't view this that differently.
Down the road, beyond 2017, Almora possibly, maybe, hopefully,
could be as good, or better than, Inciarte last three seasons.
Let's hope so. But, for near term, very unlikely to happen---so
let's be careful about projecting Almora as Inciarte for near
future. Way too speculative---and Theo has implied as much by
his recent comments. That's the point.
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Almora gets projected to 270+ PA to Inciarte 640+ PA has a lot
to do with that. Inciarte got a wRC+ of 90 to Almora's wRC+ 84.
Looking at Almora's StatCast data he was almost league average
in exit velocity, distance and launch angle. Those are all
reassuring for Almora.
Marc Topkin thinks the Rays would be interested in Montero if
the Cubs pay down his salary. It is interesting to think what
the Cubs to get to pay down enough money to interest the Rays. I
think it is an unlikely fit because the Cubs would still have to
get a backup so there likely wouldn't be much of a cost savings
for the Cubs.
#Post#: 298096--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 23, 2016, 3:21 pm
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Cubs Den guy threw out Jarrod Dyson as a CF fit for Cubs---has
one year to go before free agency post-2017.
But, no reason for KC to trade him, don't think. He would be a
good fit, however.
Tough to see who fits.
#Post#: 298110--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 24, 2016, 7:31 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> For instance
>
>
HTML http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v819679683/cinatl-inciarte-reaches-205-mph-makes-diving-grab/?game_pk=447844<br
/> Inciarte 20.5 mph Max Speed.
>
>
HTML http://m.mlb.com/col/video/topic/73955164/v576722383/wshatl-inciarte-lays-out-to-steal-a-hit<br
/> Inciarte 18.2 mph max speed
>
>
HTML http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v844024983/stlchc-almora-jr-covers-95-feet-slides-for-catch/?game_pk=447933<br
/> Almora 21.6 mph Max speed
>
>
HTML http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v928416683/texchc-statcast-tracks-almoras-fine-diving-grab/?player_id=546991<br
/> Almora 18.2 mph max speed
>
> For arm strength I can find 1 video of each player making a
throw from LF. Almora throws it 91 mph. Inciarte throws it
93.8 mph.
>
--- End Quote ---
In sprints in the OF which are usually about 3 seconds long,
seldom more than 5 seconds long, and virtually never as much as
7 seconds long, is maximum speed the most meaningful way of
measuring speed? Acceleration would seem far more meaningful.
How quickly it takes to cover 20-30 yards more meaningful still,
with any speed measure being a half measure of effective range,
something perhaps influenced more by positioning than by speed.
#Post#: 298116--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 24, 2016, 11:09 am
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It goes without saying, but today I'm thankful the Cubs finally
won the World Series after 108 years. And I'm thankful my Dad
and my sisters and I got to see it. The universe punished the
world a week later, it seems, but the moment will live with me
forever.
#Post#: 298117--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: davep
Date: November 24, 2016, 11:19 am
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Good things do tend to happen in bunches.
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