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#Post#: 298053--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 22, 2016, 10:53 pm
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I'm sure Inciarte just runs faster in all the plays that
StatCast doesn't post.
#Post#: 298054--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:07 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Inciarte had a UZR/150 of 14.9 in CF good for third in the
league for the Braves and a wRC+ 97. Nearly all of Inciarte's
WAR comes from defense and a little bit from base running.
>
> Almora had a wRC+ of 101 in his limited time with the Cubs. I
think it is quite possible Almora can put up league averageish
offensive numbers and great defense and decent enough base
running. That will get you right in line with Inciarte.
>
--- End Quote ---
You're missing a basic point.
Theo has already said Cubs are looking for a complement to
Almora. That means, by definition, Theo doesn't buy what you are
selling: that Almora "will get you right in line with Inciarte."
If Almora projects at 12.7 rWAR over next 3 seasons--as Inciarte
has already done--Theo doesn't say what you he just said.
Rather, he would say Almora is the regular. He didn't say that.
He said something very different.
Do you get that? Go argue with Theo.
#Post#: 298055--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Ray
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:19 pm
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Geez, if Maddon is right about Atmore being a star(as it is
looking like he was right about Baez), what an incredible run of
first round picks. I wonder when the last time someone had a
baez, Atmora, Bryant and Schwarber type run altogether. Don't
think I'm forgetting a failure in there.
I know at one time some questioned Almora's speed so nice to see
the stats showing hes plenty fast. Doesn't seem like much of a
question anymore.
I don't really see where inciarte is all that much better than
what Atmore has the potential to provide (unless you think 2015
is the true inciarte)
Small sample size, but really hope Almora's 27% line drive rate
this year is legit. That's pretty elite.
#Post#: 298056--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:38 pm
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--- Quote from: Ray link ---
>
>
> ....lI don't really see where inciarte is all that much better
than what Atmore has the potential to provide (unless you think
2015 is the true inciarte)
>
> Small sample size, but really hope Almora's 27% line drive
rate this year is legit. That's pretty elite.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
"Potential" is basically something that is "possible" at some
point in the future. Seems pretty unlikely that Cubs going to
get Inciarte-type season from Almora in 2017. Again, what did
Theo say about 2017 plans for Almora? That is a tell. Don't
ignore that.
Beyond 2017, have no argument with notion that Almora COULD have
that kind of value at some point down the road. Has way more
home run potential than Inciarte, for one thing. But, upside is
one thing---reality something else. Jury is out on this guy and
Cubs have a World Series crown to defend.
#Post#: 298057--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:45 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> You're missing a basic point.
>
> Theo has already said Cubs are looking for a complement to
Almora. That means, by definition, Theo doesn't buy what you are
selling: that Almora "will get you right in line with Inciarte."
>
> If Almora projects at 12.7 rWAR over next 3 seasons--as
Inciarte has already done--Theo doesn't say what you he just
said. Rather, he would say Almora is the regular. He didn't say
that. He said something very different.
>
> Do you get that? Go argue with Theo.
>
--- End Quote ---
Theo "I wouldn't rule out the job being his, but I think it
would be more likely that we would acquire someone to complement
him and allow him to grow into the job more gradually," Epstein
said."
Please tell me in that quote where Theo addresses what Almora is
going to be worth over 3 years. Complementary piece doesn't
mean replace unless you have some definition on the internet
that says differently.
In 117 PA and 237 innings in the OF Almora was worth 0.7 rWAR
and 0.9 fWAR. Over 600 PA that is between 3.6-4.6 WAR on the
high end. I don't think that is super realistic, but I would
feel comfortable projecting that Almora is going to be somewhere
between 90-100 wRC+ with excellent defense in CF. That is a 3
WAR player really easily (see Baez, Javier) on the low end
offensively. On the high end that is a 4 WAR player. So if you
want to project Almora as a sub 2 WAR player he is going to have
to be really bad, like Hayward bad on offense. I don't see the
strike outs that will make it that likely. Now, Theo is taking
a very reasonable approach in that he isn't going to hand the
starting CF job to a soon be 23 player with 453 PA in AAA and
the majors combined on a World Series contender. He isn't
ruling it out either, because Almora is pretty good.
#Post#: 298058--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 23, 2016, 12:05 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Forget Almora and Inciarte. Just pay Fowler. It was a mistake
to try to let him go last offseason, and it's a mistake to let
him go again this year.
The Cubs are World Series favorites. It's time to spend on the
free agent who has proven he's a great fit for this team.
#Post#: 298059--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 23, 2016, 12:19 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Theo "I wouldn't rule out the job being his, but I think it
would be more likely that we would acquire someone to complement
him and allow him to grow into the job more gradually," Epstein
said."
>
> Please tell me in that quote where Theo addresses what Almora
is going to be worth over 3 years. Complementary piece doesn't
mean replace unless you have some definition on the internet
that says differently.
>
> In 117 PA and 237 innings in the OF Almora was worth 0.7 rWAR
and 0.9 fWAR. Over 600 PA that is between 3.6-4.6 WAR on the
high end. I don't think that is super realistic, but I would
feel comfortable projecting that Almora is going to be somewhere
between 90-100 wRC+ with excellent defense in CF. That is a 3
WAR player really easily (see Baez, Javier) on the low end
offensively. On the high end that is a 4 WAR player. So if you
want to project Almora as a sub 2 WAR player he is going to have
to be really bad, like Hayward bad on offense. I don't see the
strike outs that will make it that likely. Now, Theo is taking
a very reasonable approach in that he isn't going to hand the
starting CF job to a soon be 23 player with 453 PA in AAA and
the majors combined on a World Series contender. He isn't
ruling it out either, because Almora is pretty good.
>
--- End Quote ---
I think you know better than to take a miniscule number of
innings and PAs and project that "at the high end" to match a
guy who has played regularly the better part of three seasons.
Fangraphs Steamer 2017 projection has Almora at 0.2 WAR in about
1/2 season of games. So, 0.4 in a full season. Raise that only
to make the point that there is huge uncertainty about Almora in
2017. Think that projection is pessimistic but, obviously, not
remotely compatible with your projections.
The Theo quote is telling. Most likely scenario is Almora shares
position... and with who? As you've speculated, likely a lefty
bat---and who's figures to face a lot righties. In other words,
plan is for Almora to be a part-timer in 2017. If he was
Inciarte, do you think Theo would be planning that way?
Beyond 2017, I like Almora's upside but anybody and everybody
should be careful about equating him to a guy with 12.7 WAR over
past three seasons.
#Post#: 298060--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 23, 2016, 5:34 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> I think you know better than to take a miniscule number of
innings and PAs and project that "at the high end" to match a
guy who has played regularly the better part of three seasons.
>
> Fangraphs Steamer 2017 projection has Almora at 0.2 WAR in
about 1/2 season of games. So, 0.4 in a full season. Raise that
only to make the point that there is huge uncertainty about
Almora in 2017. Think that projection is pessimistic but,
obviously, not remotely compatible with your projections.
>
--- End Quote ---
You read the part where Insaidnit wasn't realistic right?
Fangraphs projection is entirely Steamer at this point on
offense. ZIPS hasn't been released. Steamer is projecting him
to have a negative value on defense. The Depth Chart projection
of defense cuts his defensive value from 5.8 in 117 PA to 0.4 in
298 PA. There is where his projected WAR disappears. Steamer
and Depth charts project Inciarte for 2.0 and 2.1 WAR by tanking
his defensive value as well. I would suggest they aren't useful
for this type of player.
#Post#: 298065--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: craig
Date: November 23, 2016, 8:52 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> "Potential" is basically something that is "possible" at some
point in the future. Seems pretty unlikely that Cubs going to
get Inciarte-type season from Almora in 2017. Again, what did
Theo say about 2017 plans for Almora? That is a tell. Don't
ignore that.
>
> Beyond 2017, have no argument with notion that Almora COULD
have that kind of value at some point down the road. Has way
more home run potential than Inciarte, for one thing. But,
upside is one thing---reality something else. Jury is out on
this guy and Cubs have a World Series crown to defend.
--- End Quote ---
This is obviously the common ground. Both sides of this
argument are correct:
1. Almora has the potential/upside to **perhaps someday** be
the type of value than Inciarte has been, or that Inciarte will
be.
2. With Almora's uncertain power potential, swing, and
potential line-drive profile, he has the potential/ceiling to be
**better** than what Inciarte is likely to be going forward.
3. Whether Almora ever reaches/sustains Inciarte-level play, or
better-than-Inciarte play, remains to be seen. Many things
possible don't end up happening.
4. Whether he can do so this year is possible, but certainly
unlikely. It's certainly realistically plausible. Many things
uncertain or less than probable do end up happening.
5. Theo decision/comment: Obviously he doesn't want to
**assume** he'll get optimal-Almora, Inciarte-level, this
season. Duh. Even if he does eventually settle in as an
Inciarte-like .732-OPS type guy, would be idiotic to assume that
would happen this season already. (Even though it improbably
might....) Getting a complementary guy seems like obvious
protection.
Additional thoughts:
6. In a full platoon, LH is the primary starter. Theo's choice
of the word "complementary" sounds weaker than how he might
phrase it if he was assuming a full platoon setup.
7. Almora may always be an injury-prone guy. He's always going
full speed, walls notwithstanding, and he dives a lot (often
unnecessarily). You want alternative both for
non-hitting-Almora but also for unavailable-Almora.
8. Fowler would be nice. Chapman would be nice. Who knows?
9. Contingency planning is essential, so Theo doing so is not
unique. Almora is uncertain. But, that's routinely true, for
experienced guys as with youngsters. Some complementary guy,
who knows? Rasmus-type-guy or probably worse, who knows?
Heyward, who knows? Baez, who knows? Rondon, who knows? Any
GM is building a roster full of uncertainties.
#Post#: 298069--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 23, 2016, 9:54 am
---------------------------------------------------------
If you have a full platoon in CF, you still have one of Zobrist
or Baez on the bench every day one of the true regulars isn't
getting a rest. I don't see that happening.
Honestly, I think they'll pick up a LH who can play a decent CF
and pencil in that guy and Almora to each get 30-40 starts, with
Heyward getting the rest. And if injuries take a toll and/or
one of the CF performs well above expectations, you adjust the
numbers.
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