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#Post#: 297822--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 19, 2016, 9:18 am
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--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> I believe that winning it all once you're in the postseason is
"non random" but nonetheless greatly influenced by luck.
>
--- End Quote ---
It is a crapshoot.... but good management decisions and deep
pockets can load the dice.
#Post#: 297823--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: ben
Date: November 19, 2016, 10:49 am
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Living the Dream Day 18 - too bad we couldn't include Rivera on
the list, but oh well...still living the dream!
#Post#: 297841--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: craig
Date: November 19, 2016, 1:39 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Unless the Cubs sign a free agent or two this winter, or make
an unexpected trade, Montgomery is almost certain to begin the
year as a starter.
>
> I don't think the Cubs are going to go after a top of the
rotation starter this winter in the free agent market, nor make
a trade for one that does not include giving up one of their
current starters in exchange. This year showed that the team as
currently constituted is very likely to make the playoffs even
without a strong 5th starter (yes, I know that anything can
happen) and that a 5th starter isn't of much value in the
playoffs. If they bring anyone in through free agency or trade,
I would expect him/them to be about equivalent in talent and
cost to Montgomery.
>
--- End Quote ---
Catching up, but Dave's post from Wednesday is a good one, I
think.
1. We've seen how much FA starters cost, even ones who haven't
been especially good recently. Charlie Morton, Cashner, Samardz
last year.... It seems pretty obvious Cubs aren't going for a
*good* one who'll be guaranteed a rotation spot.
2. Hammel at $10/1 would seem to be a very reasonable value on
the market. If the Cubs weren't pretty committed to both
cutting payroll and giving Montgomery the spot, why wouldn't
they have just kept short-term Hammel?
3. Last year they re-upped on Wood; resigned Cahill; signed
Richard; and traded for Warren. I assume that speaks to the
kind of caliber/cost/function they'd be looking at again. *NOT*
guys who are likely to start games in the playoffs. And guys
who don't have enough leverage to complain about bullpen usage.
4. I think they are pretty hopeful that Montgomery's best is
ahead. We may classify him as "#5" to start, but as with
Hendricks last year, who's #5 in December and who's #5 the
following October may be very different. For him to be starting
ahead of Lackey next November, for example, seems entirely
possible. Montgomery's got a chance to emerge as a very good
rotation guy. (And of course a chance to be far from that.
Regular use, tired, high pitch count, reduced velocity, control
questions, who knows how well he'll hold up over the long haul.
But the chance to be quite good is certainly plausible.)
5. Dave's point about not needing #5 starter is well taken.
Yes, over the course of the regular season, they pick up a lot
of starts, almost as many as 1-4. But we won 103 games with not
only Hammel and Montgomery starting games, but also Warren,
Matusz, Cahill, Zastryzny, and Jake Buchanon. Last season, we
won 97 games with Haren (11), Wood (9), Wada (7), Beeler (3),
Richard (3), and Donnie Roach (1) sharing the #5 spot. That's
about as weak an array of #5 starters as you can get.
6. You can pick up Haren/Richard/Cahill-caliber guys midseason,
if/when the need arises. Emergency insurance is nice, but isn't
essential in advance.
7. If we aren't going to buy a higher-end starter in FA, what
about trade? Last year we gave Gleyber. Don't have as much to
sell for a high-end guy now. The Vogelbach-for-Montgomery
appears to be a very excellent trade. But as you say, Dave, I
don't think we're going to get a more proven or higher-end guy
than Montgomery in exchange for Candelario or Caratini or
Zagunis or Happ. Maybe somebody who looks a little better in
exchange for Soler-plus, but not much.
8. I'm very supportive of trading any of those guys for an
unproven pitcher with some talent. Somebody with an arm and
some stuff that you can park at Iowa, or use in the pen. And if
the guy does well, you can consider him for larger role. But no
surer things than Montgomery was when we got him. (Or Warren.
You win some, you lose some, nobody risk-free excellent coming
back for Happ.....)
#Post#: 297986--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 21, 2016, 11:58 pm
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What about Colby Rasmus as the left handed hitting CF? He'd
likely take a 1 year deal, his defense was rated pretty highly
and he could give you some lefty power off the bench. The
strike outs are a negative, but for a forth OF he'd seem to be a
decent option.
#Post#: 297987--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 22, 2016, 12:35 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> What about Colby Rasmus as the left handed hitting CF? He'd
likely take a 1 year deal, his defense was rated pretty highly
and he could give you some lefty power off the bench. The
strike outs are a negative, but for a forth OF he'd seem to be a
decent option.
>
--- End Quote ---
I wonder if maybe Maddon could get more out of Rasmus than his
previous managers.
Of course, Rasmus had a terrible relationship with La Russa.
And, after leaving Cards, seems was not a popular guy in Toronto
clubhouse either (see link below). With Houston, became mostly a
corner OF rather than a CF. Has always been erratic defensively.
Power but high Ks and now has hit his 30s. Ks really hurt his BA
and OBP. Always liked his raw talent but a bit of a mental case.
Was major prospect early career. Seems possible could be a
different guy in Cubs clubhouse/Maddon but guessing Theo isn't
going to risk good vibes here with a guy like Rasmus. Or, Theo
might think Maddon could do wonders for him. Would be
interesting if Cubs go that direction. Would surprise me.
HTML http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/adam-lind-says-blue-jays-will-smile-more-without-colby-rasmus-111335222.html
#Post#: 297992--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: davep
Date: November 22, 2016, 8:30 am
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The outfield will probably consist of Schwarber, Almora, Heyward
and Soler, with the need to find a lot of at bats for Zobrist
also, if Baez plays fairly regularly in the infield.That assumes
that Contreras plays no outfield on "rest days", and that Ceasar
is traded and Coghlan goes and stays away.
Even if Soler is traded, how happy will Rasmus be as the fifth
outfielder, and how much money would the front office be willing
to pay him?
#Post#: 298009--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:10 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> I wonder if maybe Maddon could get more out of Rasmus than his
previous managers.
>
> Of course, Rasmus had a terrible relationship with La Russa.
And, after leaving Cards, seems was not a popular guy in Toronto
clubhouse either (see link below). With Houston, became mostly a
corner OF rather than a CF. Has always been erratic defensively.
>
> Power but high Ks and now has hit his 30s. Ks really hurt his
BA and OBP. Always liked his raw talent but a bit of a mental
case. Was major prospect early career. Seems possible could be a
different guy in Cubs clubhouse/Maddon but guessing Theo isn't
going to risk good vibes here with a guy like Rasmus. Or, Theo
might think Maddon could do wonders for him. Would be
interesting if Cubs go that direction. Would surprise me.
>
>
HTML http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/adam-lind-says-blue-jays-will-smile-more-without-colby-rasmus-111335222.html
>
--- End Quote ---
There weren't any public troubles with Rasmus in Houston, so it
might be something that is behind him. Madden does have a
history of taking questionable attitudes and doing well with
them.
Rasmus defense in CF has been rated a lot better than Fowler.
He didn't play a lot in CF for the Astros (around 400 innings in
2 years), but I think it was because they had better defensive
options.
The LH free agent CF market isn't great and Rasmus at least
offers some upside. On a 1 year deal, I think the Cubs could do
a lot worse. Moving Heyward to CF would be my preference, but
the Cubs don't seemed to be inclined to do that according to
rumors.
#Post#: 298010--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:14 am
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Patton released.
#Post#: 298011--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: goblue007
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:14 am
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Dexter is still ideal.
#Post#: 298013--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '17 - 👑👑👑 Reigning Champions
Edition 👑👑👑
DIR By: JeffH
Date: November 22, 2016, 11:26 am
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I wonder if the Braves would consider moving Mallex Smith and if
the Cubs would have any interest.
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