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#Post#: 283296--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: Reb Date: August 17, 2016, 3:18 pm
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As I noted, rosters expand in two weeks so it's not really
Papelbon displacing anybody for any significant time. Indeed,
Cubs now at 7-man bullpen when club has been at 8-man bullpen
for bulk of the season. There is room.
So, issue is: can he help? That's the issue.
Comparing Papelbon to career Papelbon is irrelevant. Issue isn't
about bringing in long-time successful closer but maybe bringing
in a guy who can be useful on a 7-man or 8-man bullpen---and
paying major league minimum without any multi-year commitment.
As to pitching in Wrigley, it is 93 on a scale of 100 as average
pitchers park. It's been a decided pitchers park this season.
Also, irrelevant to the issue.
No, Maddon is not going to be too interested in Jose Rosario
over Papelbon in September, as you suggest. Probably Papelbon
gets better deal elsewhere but if he's here, I'm on board.
#Post#: 283299--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: Reb Date: August 17, 2016, 3:35 pm
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Papelbon probably goes where he can balance two things: (1) get
the most work--to showcase for 2017 and (2) chance to get to
post-season now.
My guess for best fit is Cards, especially with Maness going
down recently. Has history with Red Sox and Cubs guys--so could
end up at either but Cards have the need and have good shot at
wild card.
#Post#: 283302--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: CUBluejays Date: August 17, 2016, 3:57 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=443.msg283296#msg283296
date=1471465120]
So, issue is: can he help? That's the issue.
Comparing Papelbon to career Papelbon is irrelevant. Issue isn't
about bringing in long-time successful closer but maybe bringing
in a guy who can be useful on a 7-man or 8-man bullpen---and
paying major league minimum without any multi-year commitment.
As to pitching in Wrigley, it is 93 on a scale of 100 as average
pitchers park. It's been a decided pitchers park this season.
Also, irrelevant to the issue.
No, Maddon is not going to be too interested in Jose Rosario
over Papelbon in September, as you suggest. Probably Papelbon
gets better deal elsewhere but if he's here, I'm on board.
[/quote]
The issue is setting roles for the playoff roster, not the Cubs
winning the division.
Papelbon's swinging strike rate is only better than Warren,
Patton, Wood, Richard Smith in the Cubs bullpen. His soft
contact% would only be better than Joel Perralta. His hard
contact% is better than Grimm, Rondon, Montgomery but they all
get more soft contact and strike outs. Is that better?
Wrigley wind blows in the early part of the season and usually
blows out in the late part of the season/playoffs. I think that
might be important.
He's going to go where he can get the best show case, being the
Cubs 5/6 inning guy isn't it.
#Post#: 283305--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: Reb Date: August 17, 2016, 4:49 pm
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Actually, if it's primarily about "setting roles for the playoff
roster"--which is 7 weeks away and way premature to "set"
anything yet--then signing Papelbon could be MORE significant.
That's because IF he's in the form he was in before last 5
appearances, he's likely on playoff roster. But, we would have
to see him work, obviously.
He was getting guys out then. Does that count? That's what
Maddon cares about.
Wrigley is probably going to be cold as we get to playoffs
time--more similar to early April season than the summer months
when it can become (but hasn't been in 2016) a hitters park.
Geez, World Series is scheduled for November. Don't expect warm
and balmy.
#Post#: 283307--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: CUBluejays Date: August 17, 2016, 5:01 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=443.msg283305#msg283305
date=1471470556]
He was getting guys out then. Does that count? That's what
Maddon cares about.
[/quote]
Joe Nathan except for 1 outing was getting guys out, he's now in
the Giants organization. It is just the results that matter, it
is if the results can continue to happen. For Pap and Nathan I
would say no, it isn't likely to continue.
Going back to 1991 there has been 1909 PA in Wrigley in October.
Only 12.4% does the wind blow in from LF in those PA. Only
July has a lower %.
#Post#: 283313--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: Reb Date: August 17, 2016, 5:53 pm
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Joe Nathan threw two innings, so maybe a comp for Gerardo
Concepcion, not Papelbon.
I get to see Nats quite a bit. Papelbon was throwing well until
late July. I saw Joe Nathan's three appearances and, as I
commented at the time, stuff and command was marginal at best.
Signed a minor league deal thereafter and, unlike Nathan, seems
like clubs are actually competing for Papelbon. Not a comp.
Think that's because Papelbon was still pretty good until those
last five appearances. Don't know if can recapture what he was
doing: good ERA, modest homers and walks allowed, only 2 blown
saves in 21 chances at that time. But, a decent chance will help
somebody.
We can obsess about peripheral stats but they are not the whole
story. Folks have been relying on that for several seasons about
Papelbon and, until recently, he was saving games and doing fine
in that role. Maybe he's done and maybe he isn't. But, he's
going to pitch in majors pretty soon and he might help somebody.
#Post#: 283357--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: JR Date: August 17, 2016, 9:09 pm
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I'm not sure a washed up head case is really worth it. I'm in
the no corner.
#Post#: 283626--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: Reb Date: August 19, 2016, 10:45 pm
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HTML https://thekicker.com/free-agent-papelbon-meeting-with-choking-out-top-contenders/
#Post#: 283862--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: guest61 Date: August 22, 2016, 2:19 pm
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Wasnt Papelbon supposed to sign 4-5 days ago?
I guess folks do feel like his production doesnt outweigh his
personality.
#Post#: 283867--------------------------------------------------
Re: Papelbon?
By: CurtOne Date: August 22, 2016, 3:11 pm
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his 24 hours is 6 days long.
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