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#Post#: 275636--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: davep
Date: June 21, 2016, 3:31 pm
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--- Quote from: Jes Beard link ---
>
> If a player goes entirely undrafted, is he then simply a true
FA?
>
> If a senior has a team contact him after the 7th round and
asks him if he would sign for $X if the team takes him in the
9th round and $X is a third of slot and he says, "No, I won't
sign for less than five times that amount," and he ends up
entirely undrafted by anyone, is he then a completely
unrestricted FA, able to sign with anyone for whatever they
agree to? Or are teams prohibited from signing him for another
year?
>
> What happens?
>
--- End Quote ---
If I understand it correctly:
If a player goes undrafted, he becomes a free agent in the
respect that he can negotiate and sign with any other team until
the deadline (I believe it is longer than July 15 for college
seniors, but there is a deadline.
However, he is not a true free agent in the sense that no team
can sign him for more than $100,000 (plus future scholarships
that might be important to high school players).
After the signing deadline, he goes back into next year's draft
pool.
Recap -
A team gets a pool of money depending on the slot value of their
picks one through ten. (Plus a percentage (5 percent?).
They lose the slot money for that pick if they fail to sign a
particular player.
Other than that, they can use any excess coming from any under
slot signings for anyone they draft.
They can not use it for undrafted free agents.
Any additions or corrections?
#Post#: 275638--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: davep
Date: June 21, 2016, 3:40 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> It's like any negotiation, baseball or otherwise, where one
side has all the bargaining power.
>
> We talked about this a bit in years past. Could be that some
clubs make more clear to the player that will get real
opportunity. Think that Ryan Williams got a rotation spot from
get-go, so maybe that influenced his willingness to agree/sign
for peanuts as a Cub. Yeah, bonus low but we're not going to
bury you--just the opposite.
>
--- End Quote ---
I would imagine that there is a lot of off the record
non-monetary promises that are given as inducements. When the
Cubs drafted Rademacher, most teams considered him as a better
pitching prospect. There have been hints that the Cubs felt the
same, but promised to use him as a position player. If so, they
have kept their promise.
Probably the same situation as mentioned about pre-draft
monetary agreements. They aren't really enforceable, but anyone
with a reputation for breaking those agreements would have a
difficult time with such agreements in the future.
Another non-monetary inducement was seen in the acquisition of
Cease. It seems the promise of having the Cubs pay for the
surgery and rehab, with both probably beyond the finances of the
Cease and his family for the same quality, might have been a
large inducement in his signing.
And something that the board has been talking about for years -
some teams (including, finally, the Cubs) are seen as better
organizations than others for a prospect, because of their
reputation for developing skills.
#Post#: 275642--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 21, 2016, 4:17 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> If they are undrafted they are a free agent. Any signing
bonus over $100,000 counts against the cap. Most of the
undrafted players don't sign for much, although sometimes a high
school kid will get a decent amount to sign, but it is rare now.
>
--- End Quote ---
So they are not a FA in the same manner a player would be who is
released by his team and can be signed by any team for any
amount, but it instead would count against a team's allocation
for signing draft picks?
For a player being offered only $10K, but who thinks he is worth
$50K, that opportunity to have all teams bid against him without
any penalty up to $100K would still seem to be significant. Of
course he would also face the prospect of some team taking him
in the last couple of rounds and burning up an entire year of
eligibility as he was then forced to wait a year to sign with
anyone.
#Post#: 275645--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 21, 2016, 4:23 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Another non-monetary inducement was seen in the acquisition of
Cease. It seems the promise of having the Cubs pay for the
surgery and rehab, with both probably beyond the finances of the
Cease and his family for the same quality, might have been a
large inducement in his signing.
>
--- End Quote ---
There are often promising prospects who end up injured shortly
before the draft. If the Cubs are willing to pay for the
medical care and rehab and take that kind of risk on them, and
if other teams are much less willing, that could be a meaningful
market inefficiency to exploit. I hope it works well with Cease
and encourages the Cubs to continue the approach.
#Post#: 275652--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: davep
Date: June 21, 2016, 4:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I believe that one or two of those drafted have had injury
history. I don't remember if any have not yet had any necessary
surgery. Even if they have already had surgery, the lure of top
of the line rehab and training might well be substantial.
#Post#: 275661--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 21, 2016, 5:34 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> I believe that one or two of those drafted have had injury
history. I don't remember if any have not yet had any necessary
surgery. Even if they have already had surgery, the lure of top
of the line rehab and training might well be substantial.
>
--- End Quote ---
Theo has talked more than once about finding and exploiting a
market inefficiency being more important than having more money
or more or better whatever else. I think it is encouraging that
the front office appears to continue to actively trying to
identify them.
#Post#: 275862--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Dave23
Date: June 23, 2016, 8:16 am
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31st rounder Brenden Heiss is going to Arkansas.
He was looking for 3rd-4th round money.
#Post#: 276120--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: craig
Date: June 25, 2016, 10:03 am
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Cubs have signed 6th round pick Chad Hockin, the guy whose
grandfather was Harmen Killebrew. No contract details yet.
I wonder if there's a shot he might be a good-value guy, perhaps
one of the overslots? He was discussed/projected as a possible
3rd-round type guy.
May have slipped, supposedly had a down year as a junior,
(although his ERA was 1.05, so not too "down" from that regard",
had some elbow issues, some academic issues. Perhaps he
expected >6th round money so when he started slipping he slipped
further? i'm totally just guessing, perhaps he's perfectly
slot. Maybe 6th round is where he belonged given scouting,
academic issues, health questions, etc..
But, nobody had more reason to do exhaustive research on
mid-round college pitchers than the Cubs, so perhaps Hockin will
end up being a good value.
Like his grandfather, he was a 3B in high school. Converted to
pitching in college. As a reliever, and with the elbow and
academic issues perhaps limiting his junior innings (only 25
innings), his total college career sums to only 63 innings.
So I'd guess that despite being a college guy, having been a
player>pitcher convert, with only 63 innings combined, what he
might be future is probably not totally defined by a 63-inning
college sample.
McLeod referred to him as a "power" pitcher, but the scouting
report I saw alluded to working 90-93, which I'd consider
relatively slow for a RH reliever. Said has maxed at like 97.
Supposedly slider is his key pitch. I could go for a
fastball-slider reliever, if he could bump his fastball a bit
and throw strikes.
#Post#: 276123--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 25, 2016, 10:50 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Cubs have signed 6th round pick Chad Hockin.... he was a 3B in
high school. Converted to pitching in college. As a reliever,
and with the elbow and academic issues perhaps limiting his
junior innings (only 25 innings), his total college career sums
to only 63 innings.
>
> So I'd guess that despite being a college guy, having been a
player>pitcher convert, with only 63 innings combined, what he
might be future is probably not totally defined by a 63-inning
college sample.
>
> McLeod referred to him as a "power" pitcher, but the scouting
report I saw alluded to working 90-93, which I'd consider
relatively slow for a RH reliever. Said has maxed at like 97.
Supposedly slider is his key pitch. I could go for a
fastball-slider reliever, if he could bump his fastball a bit
and throw strikes.
>
--- End Quote ---
Considering the degree to which many arm/shoulder problems in
young pitchers seem related to overuse before they even get out
of high school, this might be another area of possible market
inefficiency the Theocracy has identified and is targeting. (I
think I even recall seeing Hoyer or McCleod or Theo having
recently mentioned that they were planning to target pitching
prospects who were converted position players.) Identifying
pitching prospects whose development is behind the normal age
curve because of lack or repetitions, and whose chance of
serious arm injury is seriously reduced for much the same
reason, might well provide the opportunity of identifying and
signing good prospect pitchers others miss, but signing them for
less than comparable pitching prospects who have always been
pitchers and who have much more wear on their arms.
Seems like a good approach.
#Post#: 276125--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 25, 2016, 11:17 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I don't know how Hockin was used, but a lot of college relievers
are multi-inning guys. So the fastball might play up with only
going an inning. Mekkes was used in multi-innings a lot.
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