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#Post#: 275607--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: craig
Date: June 21, 2016, 11:57 am
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--- Quote from: Eastcoastfan link ---
>
> My son did a quick Q & A with Duncan Robinson, his college
classmate. Thought you all might be interested:
>
>
HTML http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/21/catching-up-with-duncan-robinson-cubs-ninth-round-draft-pick/
>
--- End Quote ---
Thanks, East, very nice.
As every year, I always wonder about the mind-set of the guys
signing sub-slot. A 3rd-day pick can get paid up to $100K. I
wonder how hard-nosed the teams are on low-pricing 3rd-day guys.
How many 3rd-day guys actually get $100K, vs $10 or $20?
How many 3rd-day seniors get >$20K?
How many 9th round senior-signs would go undrafted if they
didn't take a 2nd-day subplot?
By agreeing to a super-cheap 9th or 8th round deal, what's the
motive for the player to agree?
1. Getting drafted, as opposed to going undrafted entirely?
2. Getting paid better than what they'd get as a 3rd day pick?
3. The prestige of being a 2nd-day pick, for family and friends
and grandchildren?
#Post#: 275609--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Dave23
Date: June 21, 2016, 12:25 pm
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that's where the phone calls come into play...
will you sign for x amount?
if yes, take player...if no, move on to next name
#Post#: 275614--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Reb
Date: June 21, 2016, 12:44 pm
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Rarely, somebody reneges on the figure they agreed to.
Interesting how much trust goes into the balancing act of
drafting and clubs staying under payroll penalty. Of course,
clubs are careful about actually signing overslot guys until
sign the underslots but interesting how much
keeping-to-your-word is part of the process. Reputation still
counts.
#Post#: 275616--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: craig
Date: June 21, 2016, 12:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Dave23 link ---
>
> that's where the phone calls come into play...
>
> will you sign for x amount?
>
> if yes, take player...if no, move on to next name
--- End Quote ---
Absolutely. But, last year the Cubs 7-10 guys signed for $5K,
$30K, $2K, and $5K.
When they called Machin and said "Would you sign for $2K", why
did the player say yes? He so expected not to get drafted at
all that $2K and a shot in Arizona was better than going
undrafted?
When they called Preston Morrison and said "Would you sign for
$30K?", despite being such a successful college pitcher he
apparently didn't think he'd be able to get even $40-50K on Day
3?
Craig Brooks didn't think he'd be able to get $10K on Day 3?
I guess it seems surprising that some of these guys have such
low expectations that they agree to those kinds of deals.
#Post#: 275619--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 21, 2016, 1:18 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> As every year, I always wonder about the mind-set of the guys
signing sub-slot. A 3rd-day pick can get paid up to $100K. I
wonder how hard-nosed the teams are on low-pricing 3rd-day guys.
> How many 3rd-day guys actually get $100K, vs $10 or $20?
> How many 3rd-day seniors get >$20K?
> How many 9th round senior-signs would go undrafted if they
didn't take a 2nd-day subplot?
> By agreeing to a super-cheap 9th or 8th round deal, what's the
motive for the player to agree?
> 1. Getting drafted, as opposed to going undrafted entirely?
> 2. Getting paid better than what they'd get as a 3rd day
pick?
> 3. The prestige of being a 2nd-day pick, for family and
friends and grandchildren?
>
--- End Quote ---
If a player goes entirely undrafted, is he then simply a true
FA?
If a senior has a team contact him after the 7th round and asks
him if he would sign for $X if the team takes him in the 9th
round and $X is a third of slot and he says, "No, I won't sign
for less than five times that amount," and he ends up entirely
undrafted by anyone, is he then a completely unrestricted FA,
able to sign with anyone for whatever they agree to? Or are
teams prohibited from signing him for another year?
What happens?
#Post#: 275623--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Dave23
Date: June 21, 2016, 1:54 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Absolutely. But, last year the Cubs 7-10 guys signed for $5K,
$30K, $2K, and $5K.
>
> When they called Machin and said "Would you sign for $2K", why
did the player say yes? He so expected not to get drafted at
all that $2K and a shot in Arizona was better than going
undrafted?
> When they called Preston Morrison and said "Would you sign for
$30K?", despite being such a successful college pitcher he
apparently didn't think he'd be able to get even $40-50K on Day
3?
> Craig Brooks didn't think he'd be able to get $10K on Day 3?
>
> I guess it seems surprising that some of these guys have such
low expectations that they agree to those kinds of deals.
>
--- End Quote ---
Gotcha...I think you have hit on the gist of it...for some, it's
the ability to say " I was a 7th round pick", for some, it's
"I'm 22 now, and my window is slamming soon", for some, it's
"who knows if anyone will want me on day 3?", and for some, it
might be "wow, how cool will it be to play in the Cubs
organization?"
And for most, it's likely a compilation of some/all of those
factors...
#Post#: 275625--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: June 21, 2016, 2:28 pm
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Reminds me of Bob Uecker's story: The Braves signed me for $5000
but it took my dad the whole summer to raise the money.
#Post#: 275626--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Reb
Date: June 21, 2016, 2:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
It's like any negotiation, baseball or otherwise, where one side
has all the bargaining power.
If $5,000 is all the kid is hearing from anybody, then where's
the bargaining power to insist on something a lot higher? If he
has a much higher offer elsewhere, then he's got some bargaining
power. There is probably a fair amount of that happening, with
guys telling clubs better offer elsewhere. But this is a large
class of fringy college guys who make up rhe pool.
We talked about this a bit in years past. Could be that some
clubs make more clear to the player that will get real
opportunity. Think that Ryan Williams got a rotation spot from
get-go, so maybe that influenced his willingness to agree/sign
for peanuts as a Cub. Yeah, bonus low but we're not going to
bury you--just the opposite.
#Post#: 275630--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: June 21, 2016, 3:10 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Again, if a player goes entirely undrafted, is he then simply a
true FA?
If a senior has a team contact him after the 7th round and asks
him if he would sign for $X if the team takes him in the 9th
round and $X is a third of slot and he says, "No, I won't sign
for less than five times that amount," and he ends up entirely
undrafted by anyone, is he then a completely unrestricted FA,
able to sign with anyone for whatever they agree to? Or are
teams prohibited from signing him for another year?
What happens?
#Post#: 275632--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2016
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: June 21, 2016, 3:13 pm
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If they are undrafted they are a free agent. Any signing bonus
over $100,000 counts against the cap. Most of the undrafted
players don't sign for much, although sometimes a high school
kid will get a decent amount to sign, but it is rare now.
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