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#Post#: 235468--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: CUBluejays Date: August 3, 2015, 7:40 pm
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[quote author=Jes Beard link=topic=320.msg235463#msg235463
date=1438646261]
Really?
And what reason is there to believe the Cubs were offering Baez?
[/quote]
Hoyer in an interview said most teams where asking for Baez.
#Post#: 235476--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: Jes Beard Date: August 3, 2015, 7:57 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=320.msg235468#msg235468
date=1438648851]
Hoyer in an interview said most teams where asking for Baez.
[/quote]
Most teams were ASKING for Baez....
So, again, what reason is there to believe the Cubs were
OFFERING Baez? It would seem to me that if most teams were
ASKING for Baez, and the Cubs didn't trade him, that would seem
to indicate that the Cubs were not offering him, or even willing
to trade him.
#Post#: 235484--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: CUBluejays Date: August 3, 2015, 8:22 pm
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[quote author=Jes Beard link=topic=320.msg235476#msg235476
date=1438649864]
So, again, what reason is there to believe the Cubs were
OFFERING Baez? It would seem to me that if most teams were
ASKING for Baez, and the Cubs didn't trade him, that would seem
to indicate that the Cubs were not offering him, or even willing
to trade him.
[/quote]
That is a huge leap. It involved 2 teams discussing a package
of players, neither team was able to find a value that they were
willing to trade. To assume that it was Baez, without knowledge
of the negotiations is not something I would be comfortable
with.
#Post#: 235487--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: BullingersEars Date: August 3, 2015, 8:44 pm
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Start with Soler and Baez for Gray.
Sign Price.
#Post#: 235501--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: Jes Beard Date: August 3, 2015, 9:05 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=320.msg235465#msg235465
date=1438648074]
Gray and Hamels have identical 6.9 f-WAR 2014-15 to date.
Love Gray--that's why brought up the subject--but, for me, an
established Ace at Hamels age, with no history of arm problems,
is at least as good a bet for excellence in next 4 years as a
guy with a two-year history in majors--especially an unusually
small starting pitcher like Gray.
[/quote]
The ten pitchers baseball-reference.com lists as most similar to
Hamels by age are the following:
Jake Peavy (953)
Doug Drabek (951)
Kevin Appier (948)
Dan Haren (947)
Jose Rijo (945)
Zack Greinke (936)
Bob Welch (935)
Sid Fernandez (935)
Tim Lincecum (931)
Jim Bunning (931)
And here is why:
HTML http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=hamelco01:Cole%20Hamels&st=age&compage=30&age=30
Of those, I believe only Bunning really offered considerable
value after they were the same age Hamels at the end of last
season. Bunning had a WAR of about 32 over his next five years;
Lincecum has only this season after he was the same age as
Hamels at the end of last year, and Lincecum has been nothing
more than a replacement value pitcher this year; Sid Fernandez
about 3.7; Welch 11.5; Grienke is at 6.6 this year; Rijo was
injured for the next five years; Haren a .8 for his three and a
half seasons since he was the same age; Appier 9.7 over the next
5 years; Drabek 2.9 over the next five; Peavey 8.6 for his next
four and a half season.
Forgive me for thinking that is not a strong indication Hamels
should be counted on to remain a strong pitcher after this
season.
Gray, on the other hand, BEFORE this season had his ten top
comps and their WAR in their next 5 years as follows:
Matt Morris (991) 9.6
Pedro Astacio (988) 5.2
Jeremy Hellickson (981) 2.9 over three and a half years
Joey Hamilton (979) 8.6
Freddie Fitzsimmons (978) 8.8
Roscoe Miller (975) 1.4
Dan Schatzeder (975) 3.8
Doc Medich (974) 10.3
David Palmer (974) 5.9
Steve Gromek (972 7.6
#Post#: 235503--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: Jes Beard Date: August 3, 2015, 9:07 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=320.msg235484#msg235484
date=1438651331]
That is a huge leap. It involved 2 teams discussing a package
of players, neither team was able to find a value that they were
willing to trade. To assume that it was Baez, without knowledge
of the negotiations is not something I would be comfortable
with.
[/quote]
I am not really saying it was Baez, but merely pointing out that
given what little we do know, it is far more reasonable to
conclude the Cubs were NOT offering Baez than to assume that the
Cubs WERE offering him.
#Post#: 235506--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: guest61 Date: August 3, 2015, 9:09 pm
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Gray does strike me as an arm issue waiting to happen.
#Post#: 235510--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: davep Date: August 3, 2015, 9:13 pm
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Every pitcher in the major and minor leagues is an arm issue
waiting to happen.
#Post#: 235522--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: guest61 Date: August 3, 2015, 9:22 pm
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I think I'd prefer to sign Price for whatever he'd ask than rape
our farm system for Gray.
#Post#: 235524--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
By: guest61 Date: August 3, 2015, 9:26 pm
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But if all it takes is the Hendricks, Baez, Torres package that
CUBluejays mentioned then sign me up yesterday.
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