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#Post#: 235443--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: craig
Date: August 3, 2015, 4:57 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> ...As to Baez, he would have to look really good final two
months of season to be a centerpiece, which I expect. As to his
Ks, keep in mind that his BR 162-game K pace with Cubs last
season was 296!! So, to project him at 180--a 100+ K reduction,
is giving him every benefit of the doubt. Think he is a
near-lock to be there, optimistically.....
>
--- End Quote ---
Think it's unrealistic to envision Baez getting down to 180-K.
I think either we (or other GM's) need to love him as a 200+
K-guy, or else don't love him quite so much.
#Post#: 235445--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: Reb
Date: August 3, 2015, 5:12 pm
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Think Gray has similar value to Hamels. Both guys with 4 years
of control. Yes, Gray is way younger but Hamels has history of
good health and showing no signs of decline. Gray is little guy
who throws heck out of ball and who knows the toll to come, even
short-term. All pitchers are risky. Beyond 4 years, there is no
club control and both fall into vast universe of floating
pitchers.
The paydown in Hamels deal (including Harrison take-back) makes
Hamels about a $13 per year pitcher to Rangers. When Gray hits
arb, and assuming another stellar season in 2016, he will likely
hit double figures per season immediately as first year arb
guy--with significant raises next two seasons. So, real
difference in salaries over 4-year period not as much as at
first glance.
So, bottom line---guessing similar package as Hamels. Think what
I proposed, with caveats mentioned, definitely there in value
range. Similar package as Bowden proposal re. hamels-to-cubs.
Key there is that Rangers preferred Alfaro to Baez--makes sense
for them as Baez barely past injury and Cubs didn't have anybody
similar to Harrison.
As to why A's would trade Gray---talk to Olney. He seems as
keyed-in to industry scuttlebuck as anyone out there. Just going
by his firm conviction that Gray will be traded.
#Post#: 235449--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: davep
Date: August 3, 2015, 5:51 pm
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I think that the asking price for Gray would be Bryant or
Russell, and if Baez were to come up today and excel for the
rest of the season, he could be the second piece of the trade.
In my opinion, Gray would be expected to bring back MUCH more
than Hamels did.
#Post#: 235450--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: Reb
Date: August 3, 2015, 6:10 pm
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Why? Explain.
#Post#: 235454--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: davep
Date: August 3, 2015, 6:16 pm
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Because Gray is a much better value than Hamels. Just as good a
pitcher, much younger, can be extended or resigned with less
risk, and has a much lower risk of non-injury decline than
Hamels.
#Post#: 235461--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: August 3, 2015, 6:46 pm
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Price is the only pitcher to get $10 million in his 4th year and
he was a super 2 with a Cy Young. Even if Gray gets $10, $14,
$20 he is still only $11 million AAV and in his prime. Gray has
much more value than Hamels.
#Post#: 235462--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: August 3, 2015, 6:55 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> To put is some $ terms. Gray is going to a roughly 5 fWAR
pitcher this year. If he does that for 4 years at $8
million/WAR that is a $160 million value. Let's overshoot his
arbitation salaries and go $.5, $4, $10, $20. These numbers are
way to high, but that is $34.5 million over 4 years. His excess
value is $125.5 million. Hamels brought back 3 top 100 guys
with maybe half that excess value.
>
--- End Quote ---
And you need to discount that value by at least 25% based on the
breakdown rate of pitchers.
#Post#: 235463--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: August 3, 2015, 6:57 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> Key there is that Rangers preferred Alfaro to Baez--makes
sense for them as Baez barely past injury and Cubs didn't have
anybody similar to Harrison.
>
--- End Quote ---
Really?
And what reason is there to believe the Cubs were offering Baez?
#Post#: 235465--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: Reb
Date: August 3, 2015, 7:27 pm
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Gray and Hamels have identical 6.9 f-WAR 2014-15 to date.
Love Gray--that's why brought up the subject--but, for me, an
established Ace at Hamels age, with no history of arm problems,
is at least as good a bet for excellence in next 4 years as a
guy with a two-year history in majors--especially an unusually
small starting pitcher like Gray.
Think there is a tendency to assume, at first glance, that a
young guy has a long run with club he's with now. But, in the
modern free agent era, here today, gone in free agency. Think
have to think of both guys as same years of control. Once you
get into that reality, you might re-think differently.
Also, Hamels has been pitching in worst situation possible in
2015. Bad ballclub, bad defense behind him, and constant
intensive, trade hangover for over a year as he takes mound.
#Post#: 235467--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (8/3 - 12/1)
DIR By: ticohans
Date: August 3, 2015, 7:40 pm
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Hamels is at the age when pitchers can largely be counted on to
decline year over year and costs significantly more than Gray.
Gray won't be traded, but if he is, he'll cost a LOT more than
Hamels.
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