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#Post#: 236237--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: Reb Date: August 8, 2015, 11:54 pm
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Yeah, BR most similar career batters to Bellhorn are Eli
Marrero, Ted Lepcio, Bobby Morgan, and Luis Valbuena.
That would be a disappointment.
#Post#: 236238--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: davep Date: August 8, 2015, 11:57 pm
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Bellhorn was like Soto and Rich Wilken in that they all had one
or two really good years in an otherwise mediocre career.
#Post#: 236239--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: Dave23 Date: August 9, 2015, 12:02 am
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If memory serves, as a Cub, he was the first player to hit a HR
from both sides of the plate in the same inning...
#Post#: 236240--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: CUBluejays Date: August 9, 2015, 12:23 am
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Only 12 #9 picks have produced over 6 rWAR in their career.
Happ just having 2 seasons like Bellhorn is a win. Going forward
in the draft the Cubs will be really lucky to get players that
contribute at the major league level.
#Post#: 236245--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: Reb Date: August 9, 2015, 2:53 am
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=318.msg236240#msg236240
date=1439097818]
Only 12 #9 picks have produced over 6 rWAR in their career.
Happ just having 2 seasons like Bellhorn is a win. Going forward
in the draft the Cubs will be really lucky to get players that
contribute at the major league level.
[/quote]
The most recent college OFers taken at #9 each had career rWAR
over 21. Mark Kotsay and Geoff Jenkins.
That's who we should be looking at as Happ comps---not all the
pitchers who got hurt, good field/no hit shortstops, etc.
#Post#: 236253--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: CUBluejays Date: August 9, 2015, 7:09 am
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Fair enough.
20 WAR over 10 years is a league average starter. I think my
comp for Happ would be Dexter Fowler, with more power and less
speed. High OBP, high K and average-ish defense in CF.
#Post#: 236256--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: craig Date: August 9, 2015, 9:13 am
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Tangent: Ten years averaging league-average starter would be a
good thing.
1. We'll struggle to find league average within our current
system.
2. Career-average-league-average is perhaps worse than it
sounds, I think. Most guys have lesser years before they retire
at the end which depresses their career WAR/year average. So to
end up career-average despite the bad old years implies a group
of above-average years during career prime. Usually earlier in
career while still controlled by original team and when value/$$
is favorable.
Caveat: I know it's early, maybe it will all flip later. But,
first impressions suggest that the Cubs missed on the Happ pick
and that he's very unlikely to be any good. When you're
whiffing 1/3 of your AB in short season/low-A, it's not going to
get easier versus the next three step of minors and then the
massive step to the majors. 19:1 K/HR doesn't project well.
I think they just missed on the scouting this time. I don't
imagine the Cub scouts who valued him as an almost-full-slot #9
pick did so expecting this. He was drafted based on proven,
experienced college bat. Not a raw projectable hitter; not a
defensive wizard who doesn't need to hit much; not a HR-smasher
who can afford 200 K's. Hitting was supposed to be his best
attribute; without that, not much to fall back on.
I understand this goes with Blue's point. The expectation
should have been nothing, so getting nothing should be no
surprise.
#Post#: 236258--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: Ron Date: August 9, 2015, 9:23 am
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[quote author=craig link=topic=318.msg236256#msg236256
date=1439129598]
Caveat: I know it's early, maybe it will all flip later. But,
first impressions suggest that the Cubs missed on the Happ pick
and that he's very unlikely to be any good. When you're
whiffing 1/3 of your AB in short season/low-A, it's not going to
get easier versus the next three step of minors and then the
massive step to the majors. 19:1 K/HR doesn't project well.
I think they just missed on the scouting this time. I don't
imagine the Cub scouts who valued him as an almost-full-slot #9
pick did so expecting this. He was drafted based on proven,
experienced college bat. Not a raw projectable hitter; not a
defensive wizard who doesn't need to hit much; not a HR-smasher
who can afford 200 K's. Hitting was supposed to be his best
attribute; without that, not much to fall back on.
[/quote]
You sure that 57 PA is "early?" I'd be inclined to say
something more like "extraordinarily premature." ;)
#Post#: 236266--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: CUBluejays Date: August 9, 2015, 11:58 am
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Way to early to make any judgments about Happ.
So far college hitters and pitchers.
Dansby Swanson- DNP concussion
Alex Bregman- .259/.368/.330 (A) .269/.296/.385 (A+)
Andrew Benintendi- .255/.379/.457 (A-)
Ian Happ- .283/.408/.491 (A-), .255/.333/.392 (A)
Kevin Newman .226/.281/.340 (A-)
Richie Martin .258/.386/.383 (A-)
DJ Stewart .238/.308/.373 (A-)
The pitchers
Dillion Tate 2 IP
Tyler Jay 6.10 ERA/ 10.1 IP/ 6 BB/ 13 K
Carson Fulmer- 5.14 ERA/ 7 IP/ 1 BB/ 9 K
It is possible it was just a really bad draft. In the way too
early to make judgments Fulmer is having the most interesting
debut. Happ is performing like a bunch of the college hitters.
Better results, but more K's.
#Post#: 236316--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm
By: Chris27 Date: August 9, 2015, 4:27 pm
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Baez: 1-3, BB, K
HTML http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 3-5, RBI, BB, 2 K, CS
HTML http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_09_cliafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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