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#Post#: 220047--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: StrikeZone Date: April 28, 2015, 11:39 am
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=279.msg220045#msg220045
date=1430239035]
Pretty sure they'll take who they think is the best player, even
if it is a pitcher that will break your heart with injuries.
[/quote]
And I think they believe hitters are better players, or at least
better investments in the first round.
#Post#: 220049--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: CUBluejays Date: April 28, 2015, 11:46 am
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If the Astros took Bryant at #1 do you think the Cubs would have
taken Appel or Gray or dropped down to another hitter?
If Aiken and Schwarber could have been picked last year who do
you think the pick would have been?
I personally think the Cubs were very lucky the draft fell the
way it did for them and they ended up with hitters.
#Post#: 220051--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: StrikeZone Date: April 28, 2015, 11:55 am
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I think they would have taken hitters in each of the scenarios.
There was talk about the Cubs drafting Michael Conforto last
year before they picked Schwarber.
The Theocracy have openly talked about picking hitters early in
the draft and then focusing on pitchers later as a strategy
because hitters simply have fewer injury concerns and move more
quickly thru the minors.
When they picked Bryant, I wanted them to pick Jonathan Grey
because of the lack of high ceiling starters in the system. It
looks like I was wrong.
#Post#: 220056--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: CUBluejays Date: April 28, 2015, 12:16 pm
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In Bryant's draft year Clint Frazier was the next hitter off the
board. Last year he had a .760 OPS in low A with a K% of 30%.
In 79 PA so far he has .644 OPS in high A. Colin Moran, UNC,
was the next hitter picked. He is repeating AA, with a .718 OPS
so far. Last year with a full year in AA he had a .741 OPS.
Aiken was number 1 on their board last year and the rumors where
that Appel was #1 on their board over Bryant.
I just want them to take, however they like the best and not
take a lesser talent just because it is a hitter. Hitter's fail
and pitchers make it. I'm sure the Dodgers are happy they took
Kershaw and not Drew Stubbs, Billy Rowell, Tyler Colvin, Travis
Snider, Chris Marrero, Matt Antonelli, Chris Parmelee, Maxwell
Sapp, Cody Johnson, Hank Conger, Jason Place, Preston Mattingly,
Emmanuel Burris, Kyler Burke or Chris Coghlan. That is all of
the hitters taken after Kershaw in the first round. Linececum,
Scherzer and Ian Kennedy where all picked after Kershaw as well.
That said at the top of that draft the Royals and Rockies took
Hochevar and Greg Reynolds over Longoria. Moral of the story,
take who ever you think is best.
#Post#: 220057--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: Reb Date: April 28, 2015, 12:26 pm
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Yeah, if the draft had played out differently in recent years,
Cubs may have taken pitchers at top of the draft. Theo/Hoyer are
too smart to decide they have to pick a certain type of
guy---depends on the facts of each instance.
Possible a position player will just be the better pick again.
Think they do look at certain traits, though none singly are
dispositive. If they're looking at Clark, doesn't hurt that
he's a lefty bat who may be able to stay in CF.
#Post#: 220066--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: Jes Beard Date: April 28, 2015, 2:00 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=279.msg220049#msg220049
date=1430239560]
I personally think the Cubs were very lucky the draft fell the
way it did for them and they ended up with hitters.
[/quote]
If you mean you think the Cubs were very lucky the front office
is bright enough to avoid spending a high first round draft pick
on a pitcher instead of a position player, unless the pitcher
prospect is wildly better, because of the greater injury risk to
the pitcher, I have to agree with you. They are very lucky they
are not foolish.
#Post#: 220249--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: Chris27 Date: April 29, 2015, 6:50 am
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Callis looks at the top of the draft. Bad news is that it's seen
as significantly weaker than last year's.
HTML http://m.mlb.com/news/article/120976524/jim-callis-brendan-rodgers-stands-out-but-top-draft-pick-isnt-settled
#Post#: 220254--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: CUBluejays Date: April 29, 2015, 7:48 am
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The top end talent is weaker. The depth of the draft is fine,
especially high school arms.
#Post#: 220273--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: craig Date: April 29, 2015, 9:01 am
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=279.msg220045#msg220045
date=1430239035]Pretty sure they'll take who they think is the
best player, even if it is a pitcher that will break your heart
with injuries.[/quote]
This is semantics. BVA, best value, perhaps more accurate than
BPA. I think they'll pick the guy they project as the best
value, and obviously risk factors in. If they take a pitcher, I
assume that will require that his projected value is superior
enough to justify the heightened risks.
But, picking at #9 is a very different risk analysis from
picking 2 and 4 the last two years. With Bryant and Schwarber,
I think they had scouted those guys well enough to be very
confident that they'd hit. The risk that they wouldn't hit was
low.
But at #9, there will perhaps be significant risk that hitters
won't hit. Kyle Tucker, Nick Plummer, Daz Cameron, Trenton
Clark, Garrett Whitley, these are some nice prospects and
perhaps will hit very well. But the risk differential between
the hitters who'll be there at #9 versus the pitchers may not be
that substantial. The injury-to-pitcher risk may really not be
that much more problematic than the risk that the hitters won't
hit.
That's partly where Ian Happ, Swanson, and Bregman fit.
Presumably Swanson and Bregman will be gone, but who knows? But
Happ seems like he might profile as a pretty low-risk guy. And,
he's young for his class, he won't turn 21 till the end of the
minor league season. Cubs will scout, obviously. But from the
scouting reports, he seems like the kind of guy the Cubs might
like: a good hitter who may not have any signature tools, but
perhaps is pretty good at everything.
Who knows, I don't think at this point last year there were a
lot of us seriously thinking Schwarber, and none of the draft
guru's were including him in discussion for top-5. But, the
sub-slot signing really combined a guy they wanted with
discretionary dollars. Maybe the Cubs really like Kevin Newman,
for example, and think he'll be a good though not great major
leaguer; but can sign him for #25-slot money instead of #9 cash.
Maybe they'd then be able to sign a couple of million-dollar
pitchers in rounds 2-4, like last year? Get a safe low-risk
pure hitter, and then spread the risk over three
talented-but-risky HS pitchers instead of focusing all the risk
on a single HS pitcher at #9?
Who knows. Should be fun.
#Post#: 220278--------------------------------------------------
Re: 2015 MLB Draft
By: CUBluejays Date: April 29, 2015, 9:32 am
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I agree with Craig. Thanks for not mentioning DJ Stewart, I
might lose my mind.
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