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#Post#: 199964--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: brjones Date: November 7, 2014, 4:01 pm
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Craig, I just did a raw calculation of the slash line for
starting catcher. I took the 30 catchers who had the most PAs
last year and calculated their slash line to be .255/.323/.407,
which is right in line with the Steamer projection for Martin.
Of course, this wasn't exactly a starter's calculation--a couple
of teams had no catcher finish in the top 30 in PA, while a
couple of teams had two catchers represented. But just for
simplicity, I figured that would be a reasonable approximation.
I also think it's interesting that if you calculate Martin's
actual OPS over the last 5 years (not just take the average), it
comes out to be almost identical to the Steamer projection:
.241/.341/.392 (only the batting average is one point off). Not
sure that means anything, just an interesting coincidence. Or
maybe I figured out the proprietary formula for Steamer.
#Post#: 199965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 7, 2014, 4:04 pm
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12 catchers with over 400 AB's had a wRC+ of greater than 100 in
2014. (14 had over a .700 OPS). Of those 12, 4 had a defensive
value of average or below average. So near league average
offense Martin is still going to be one of the more valuable
catchers out there.
If we go and look at Martin's past career his wRC+ has only been
below 100 3 times (87,90,95). His career wRC+ is 106, which is
close to the 109 that steamer projects.
2009/10 with the Dodgers his wRC+ was 87 and 90. This is the
only time his ISO has been below 100, so I'm wondering if he as
injured or something.
2012 with the Yankees wRC+ 95 and his BABIP was .222. He was
almost league average with a 2013 Darwin Barney BABIP.
League average Martin is a a 4 fWAR player, without pitch
framing. He's good.
#Post#: 199967--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: grrrrlacher Date: November 7, 2014, 4:42 pm
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One thing I'd like to see the Cubs do in signing any FA this off
season and next off season, is have the contract decreasing so
that 2015 will be the most expensive year. I think that would
work out much better for the Cubs situation - low payroll next
year and young guys getting more expensive 4 years down the
road.
#Post#: 199971--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: craig Date: November 7, 2014, 5:15 pm
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[quote author=brjones link=topic=209.msg199964#msg199964
date=1415397685]
Craig, I just did a raw calculation of the slash line for
starting catcher. I took the 30 catchers who had the most PAs
last year and calculated their slash line to be .255/.323/.407,
which is right in line with the Steamer projection for Martin.
Of course, this wasn't exactly a starter's calculation--a couple
of teams had no catcher finish in the top 30 in PA, while a
couple of teams had two catchers represented. But just for
simplicity, I figured that would be a reasonable approximation.
I also think it's interesting that if you calculate Martin's
actual OPS over the last 5 years (not just take the average), it
comes out to be almost identical to the Steamer projection:
.241/.341/.392 (only the batting average is one point off). Not
sure that means anything, just an interesting coincidence. Or
maybe I figured out the proprietary formula for Steamer.
[/quote]
Heh heh, thanks BR. Some very interesting stuff there. That a
top-30 catcher is .730, whereas overall catcher average is .688,
I'd not have expected the overall average to be over 40 points
below the regular-30 group. Probably speaks to how much playing
time backup catchers get, and to how bad some of the backup John
Baker types are offensively.
My guess is that for many other positions, the differential
between the regulars and the overall isn't as pronounced. Both
because at most positions regulars dominate the AB's more than
at catcher; and because at most positions backups aren't allowed
to hit so badly as can happen with backup catchers.
Also interesting how dramatically out-of-line Martin's 2014
season was offensively. A guy has been a .703 OPS guy over 5
years ages 26-30, and then at age 31 he has such a wonder-year
that he raises his net 5-year average all the way up to .733?
That's pretty rare. It takes a massive outlier of a season to
raise your five-year-average by 30 OPS points. Castro, for
example, would need almost a .900-OPS year to raise his
OPS-average by 30 points. You need to be 150 points above
average to do that! Pretty nice.
#Post#: 199974--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Reb Date: November 7, 2014, 5:57 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=209.msg199971#msg199971
date=1415402151]
Heh heh, thanks BR. Some very interesting stuff there. That a
top-30 catcher is .730, whereas overall catcher average is .688,
I'd not have expected the overall average to be over 40 points
below the regular-30 group. Probably speaks to how much playing
time backup catchers get, and to how bad some of the backup John
Baker types are offensively.
My guess is that for many other positions, the differential
between the regulars and the overall isn't as pronounced. Both
because at most positions regulars dominate the AB's more than
at catcher; and because at most positions backups aren't allowed
to hit so badly as can happen with backup catchers....
[/quote]
Craig- Below is a link of a study by BA through 2011 season of
"average regular" per position. See link therein for their
formula. As you'll see, big difference between average catcher
regular and average catcher.
As point of comparison, the average catcher (all catchers) in
majors had a slash line in 2010 of 249-319-381 (.699 OPS) and in
2011 of 244-312-388 (.700 OPS).
HTML http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/news/2012/2613327.html
#Post#: 200025--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: shasson Date: November 8, 2014, 2:09 pm
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baseball prospectus has done scouting reports on the current
free agent crop. I have no idea how the writers of the pieces
get their info, but my sense is that baseball prospectus tries
to be pretty thorough and thoughtful. The whole exercise strikes
me as being a bit much for long-time big league players with a
history that speaks for itself. But, since it's a hot stove kind
of thing, just sharing it.
Here is their conclusion on Lester:
"Lester is a premier pitcher, good enough to anchor just about
any rotation in the majors. He is as durable and consistent as
any pitcher in baseball. He still has a few years left of his
prime, but even after that, he should remain a competent big
league starter, though likely not one worthy of the contract he
will receive on the free agent market. Still, in the generally
ill-advised free agent landscape, Lester is as sure of a bet as
will be available."
The full report
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24930
their Martin report (they project him as a viable starter for 4
more years):
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24980
#Post#: 200049--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: bitterman Date: November 9, 2014, 11:03 am
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I suppose we're assuming Bryant is playing next season and is
playing 3rd, BUT if he's ticketed for OF than Chase Headley
would help with D and his OBP was excellent after he went to the
Yankees. If you can sign him to a reasonable contract I'd
prefer him to Martin (b/c I think Martin's contract is going to
be exorbitant). Than you have your outfield bat in Kris Bryant
and an upgrade at 3rd in Headley.
As far as Martin goes, he was not very good offensively 3 years
previous to last (a player great during a contract year?). So,
as long as you are OK with him hitting .230 for 4-5 years ...
and paying him a premium, than I'm on board.
Unfortunately, not a lot of good players available from what I
see. I think you'll see Lester signed and than a deal of
prospects for MLB talent...maybe revist the Carlos Gonzalez
idea. (Maybe Baez straight up - Baez has K questions, Gonzalez
has health questions.).
Anyway, no roster moves have been made. So it doesn't matter
what you or I think because right now Lester isn't a Cub. Nor
is Martin. Until this team actually improves on paper, I'm
unwilling to say that this team has turned a page. And while I
doubt Maddon comes on board without assurances that this roster
will get significantly better, until that actually happens, this
team is still the worst in the NL central.
#Post#: 200050--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: davep Date: November 9, 2014, 11:15 am
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I have no problem with Headley, if he comes cheaply enough, but
he doesn't really bring a lot to the table that isn't already
there in Valbuena. Offensively, Headley had only one year that
showed the power that you want at third base, and isn't likely
to recover it. His plate discipline is similar to Valbuena.
His power is similar to Valbuena. And his defense is not so
much better than Valbuena's that it is worth a substantial
salary premium.
#Post#: 200055--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: ticohans Date: November 9, 2014, 1:28 pm
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Thankfully, offense is more than just batting average, so simply
evaluating Martin as a .230-.240 hitter without acknowledging
his excellent discipline and solid power sells his total
offensive package very short.
He's basically a league average offensive player playing premium
defense at a premium defensive position.
We can disagree about how he projects moving forward, but this
is what he has already done, and players with that kind of
history earn quite a bit of money, and rightly so.
#Post#: 200056--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: davep Date: November 9, 2014, 1:46 pm
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I agree with TICO. But one question that should be answered is
how much better, overall, is he than Castillo, and is that
increase worth 50 million dollars or so over the next 4 years.
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