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#Post#: 199778--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Reb Date: November 5, 2014, 5:58 pm
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Regarding pitch framing analytics--think it's one of those areas
where the components parts don't necessarily lead to the overall
big picture conclusion.
Yes, we know that the call on a 1-1 pitch has a big effect on
the AB. ABs have much more favorable outcomes for hitters after
2-1 than 1-2, obviously. So, there's that.
But, to give all the credit for the rest of the AB to the
catcher doing one aspect of the position just seem weird to me.
And the results are weird in the value assigned. There is
something missing. Don't know what it is, but pretty confident
that with more study and data that the current metrics will be
modified. This subject is made for further study and
correction.
If MLB goes to an automated strike zone, value of the skill
becomes non-existent, right? Totally based on tricking the
umpire. Also weird that something of such supposed value
disappears if the umpire becomes infallible.
Maybe the pitch framing skill brings out the human element in
game and should be exalted, rather than questioned. In any
case, think we'll get a better picture in the future as to its
actual value.
#Post#: 199779--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: davep Date: November 5, 2014, 6:07 pm
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When Tico discussed this, (I hope it was Tico) he said that a
fWAR was worth about 7 million dollars. Even Jesmath would say
that for Castillo, that comes to a value of about 14 million per
year. And Martin was a good value since his lowest fwar was
about 2. It sounds like in many years, Martin was worth about
as much as Castillo.
No. The metrics for pitch framing do not impress me much. The
seem to me to be little more than a fad that will fade into
history in time. I am not saying that they are meaningless.
Just that they seem to be greatly inflated in it's infancy.
I don't much care if the Cubs sign Martin or not. If the front
office believes he is worth it, I am willing to admit that they
know more about the subject, and have vastly more information at
their disposal than I have. But I see no reason to desperately
hope for it.
#Post#: 199782--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CurtOne Date: November 5, 2014, 6:17 pm
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Pitch framing has a flip side. It involves holding steady so
the umpire can clearly see it's a strike. Seems most of what I
read here involves bringing the ball back into the strike zone
to deceive the ump. Good framing also involves not falling over
or obstructing the view which could cost your pitcher a strike.
#Post#: 199785--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 5, 2014, 6:45 pm
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Pitch framing isn't just pulling the ball back into zone. It
has more to do with catching the ball without moving your arms,
to make it look like the ball is on target and a strike and
catching the ball away from your body so the ump can see it.
Castillo stabs at balls outside of zone and that is why he sucks
as a pitch framer.
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934
Here's a link that talks about how BP/Harry Pavaldis goes about
calculating it. They control for pitchers, because power
pitchers are less likely to get strikes outside the zone. They
control for umpires strikes zones. They control for the type of
pitch as well. They break down the probability of a pitch being
a strike, so if it has an 80% chance of being a strike, they
will only credit the catcher with 20%. They also assign value
to pitch based on the count. This is just what is public info.
I would imagine that the Cubs have a much better system.
Until Roboumps happen it is a skill that can be worth a lot to a
team.
$/WAR is an area on contention, but I've seen it anywhere from
$6-8 million/win.
#Post#: 199794--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: guest61 Date: November 5, 2014, 7:59 pm
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Though I suspect the new contract Martin signs wont end well and
Im not too crazy about him in the first place he probably is the
best option available so I wont bitch about us at least trying
to upgrade.
If he really is one...
#Post#: 199829--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: chgojhawk Date: November 6, 2014, 11:11 am
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When I caught I found several ways to not only frame a pitch but
to work an ump.
1. Never try to bring a pitch into the strike zone that is
clearly not a strike. A catcher loses credibility.
2. Hold the pitch for an extra second with slight movement
toward the strike zone. If your movement is not overt to an
umpire you may fool him into believing that it is a strike or he
may feel as though he owes you a close strike on the next one if
he called it a "ball".
3. I have always pushed for catching the ball with as much of
the glove in the strike zone as possible. However I have seen
catchers go the opposite route and have their wrist outside of
the ball.
4. Keep an ongoing conversation with the ump but never bitch
and moan about missed strikes. If he likes the catcher he may
give a couple close ones to him. I used to compliment the ump
on close pitches that he called "balls" when it wasn't an
important situation (0-1 or 0-0) so that I could buy the more
important call later in the at bat or game.
The bottom line is that keeping a good relationship with the ump
was always of the utmost importance to me. As a coach I
encourage my players to do the same.
#Post#: 199864--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Jes Beard Date: November 6, 2014, 5:42 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=209.msg199729#msg199729
date=1415197864]
Agree there. Arguello also makes some bad points, too.
1. He's talking $60/4 or $75/5.
2. He presents the age, availability, normal production prior
to this bizarro career year that Martin just had, and
availability to project why 2014 is non-representative and
non-predictive. Are John and Theo the only geniuses on the
planet to notice those factors? Those same factors that devalue
Martin to Arguello (very appropriately, I may add....) should
also devalue Martin to the rest of the market.
[/quote]
There may well be 27 other GM's who see the very same things.
So long as there are two GM's who do NOT see it, and who are
interested in Martin, what Theo and the other 27 see is not very
relevant to what Martin will get.
#Post#: 199892--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: buff Date: November 6, 2014, 9:44 pm
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Here is a question. Would any of you take Ryan Howards contract
if it landed you Cole Hamels without giving up one of our big 4
or 5 prospects?
I think I would if they took Jackson and also agreed to pay his
10 millon dollar club option. That would leavecthe cubs about
28 million dollars. Flip him to an american league team pay
half his contract and getvHamels at a good price withoutvgiving
up one of your core prospects.
#Post#: 199893--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: guest61 Date: November 6, 2014, 10:00 pm
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Lol
Same old Buff.
#Post#: 199894--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: brjones Date: November 6, 2014, 10:01 pm
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Is this the most pointless MLB offseason tweet of all time?
[quote]
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
Source says Hiroki Kuroda, who turns 40 in February, is mulling
over 3 options: another MLB season, a season in Japan, or
retirement.
[/quote]
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