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#Post#: 199731--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: ben Date: November 5, 2014, 9:27 am
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Well stated, Craig...I think you've nailed how the Cubs will
view Martin.
#Post#: 199732--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: brjones Date: November 5, 2014, 9:42 am
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A lot of the evaluation of Martin depends on how much you value
pitch framing. If you think the impact is as big as (or bigger
than) what has been talked about over the last year or two,
4/$60 is a very reasonable deal. Martin typically adds a couple
of wins per year just through pitch framing...and that's on top
of being a slightly above average all around player on more
traditional measures of evaluation.
Considering all the boxes he checks for the Cubs (leadership,
good approach to hitting, average (or slightly above)
performance at a position of need based on traditional stats), I
don't think the Cubs will balk at 4/$60 if they buy into the
impact of pitch framing.
#Post#: 199734--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: davep Date: November 5, 2014, 9:44 am
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[quote author=craig link=topic=209.msg199729#msg199729
date=1415197864]
Agree there. Arguello also makes some bad points, too.
Personally, I think Martin is like anybody else. He might be
useful, but the value has to match the dollars. I expect the
Cubs will make a solid offer, but with the age and the modest
offense projections for Martin and the draft pick involved as
well, I don't think they're going anywhere close to $60/4, not
even remotely close. If somebody else is going to offer than
kind of cash, I think Hoyer will be out of that discussion in a
blink.
[/quote]
I don't remember if it came from that article, or others that he
has written, but in my memory, that is what he is saying. If
the bidding gets that high, the Cubs will not participate.
The difference is, he thinks the bidding WILL get that high.
All it takes is one team that really, really wants him.
#Post#: 199737--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Ron Date: November 5, 2014, 10:52 am
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Gammons has an article on what he calls Front Office Dream Teams
in which he says this about the Cubs' hiring of Maddon and his
expectations of the Cubs regarding Russell Martin:
If one is a Cub fan, this is not simply hiring a manager of
record, like Lou Piniella and Dusty Baker. Maddon comprehends
the larger picture of how every job in an organization is
related. In Tampa, he never told Friedman he had to have some
young player in the minors, instead, he deferred to those in
development who best knew and understood the players and the
dangers of rushing them. In Chicago, he joins a complex web of
baseball minds; this is a place where it matters that they hired
Derek Johnson as minor league pitching coordinator, a man, teams
like the Indians tried to hire in the majors but whose salary at
Vanderbilt at the time made him higher paid that more than
two-thirds of the major league pitching coaches.
As Bobby Cox predicted when he took over the Braves baseball
operations in November, 1985, it takes a minimum of six years to
build an organization that has sustainable success, something
Neal Huntington and Dayton Moore understood and accepted in
molding successful small market teams in Pittsburgh and Kansas
City. What will the Cubs do this winter? Most likely, try to
sign Russell Martin for his leadership and development of young
pitching, then next winter—when their farm system is unfurling
talent and there are 5-10 big free agent pitchers available—they
will strike for the finishing pitching tools.
HTML http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-dodgers-cubs-headline-front-office-dreams-on-the-rise/
HTML http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-dodgers-cubs-headline-front-office-dreams-on-the-rise/
As someone else noted recently, Gammons seems to have his thumb
on the pulse of the Cubs better than Chicago beat writers these
days. Whether that's true of their intentions regarding Martin
remains to be seen. But his point about Martin's potential for
helping develop young pitchers is a good one. I think Theo
places a much higher priority on so-called intangibles than most
people here. It could be that he's willing to significantly
overpay for the end years of a Martin contract in exchange for
the combination of qualities that he would bring to this
extremely critical transitional period.
#Post#: 199742--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: shasson Date: November 5, 2014, 11:26 am
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Good points, Ron.
Not surprisingly, around the time Arguello did his Martin post,
the other Cubs' blogger with a big following, Brett Taylor , did
a Martin piece at Bleacher Nation. I tend to prefer Taylor's
analysis, though he is unabashedly an apologist for the Theo
regime. Anyhow, here's a big excerpt of his take on Martin:
"...is Martin worth four years and $60 million if we assume
serious offensive regression?
It isn’t necessarily definitive that Martin will regress
significantly offensively in the coming years, but, given his
age (32 next year), his position (catcher), and his BABIP last
year (.336 – nearly 50 points higher than his career mark),
regression seems very likely. And that tends to be what Martin
opponents say when arguing against signing him.
I am in favor of the Cubs signing Martin, and I agree with the
opponents. He’s going to regress. A lot, probably. But I still
see the value.
Consider this: if we take an ax to Martin’s BABIP to the tune of
50 or even 60 points, and correspondingly crush his
.290/.402/.430 2014 batting line, and leave him somewhere around
.240/.341/.392 (which happens to be his current Steamer
projection, together with a .328 wOBA and a 109 wRC+), he’s
still an above-average offensive player. More importantly, he’d
be far above average for a catcher. In 2014, the average
offensive line for a catcher was .244/.309/.379 with a .305 wOBA
and a 93 wRC+. Massively-regressed Martin blows that away."
HTML http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/11/04/russell-martin-a-better-fit-for-cubs-than-any-pitcher-olney-predicts-cubs-sign-him/
#Post#: 199750--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: ticohans Date: November 5, 2014, 1:00 pm
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I'd have no problem going 4/60 on Martin.
#Post#: 199756--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: brjones Date: November 5, 2014, 3:31 pm
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Astros traded for Hank Conger:
[quote]
Houston Astros ‏@astros
The #Astros have officially acquired C Hank Conger from the
Angels in exchange for C Carlos Perez and RHP Nick Tropeano.
[/quote]
Does this make Jason Castro available? If it does, is he an
upgrade/platoon partner for Castillo? He was pretty bad this
year, but seemed to break out in 2013.
#Post#: 199757--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: ticohans Date: November 5, 2014, 3:52 pm
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To elaborate on my earlier post, the FA market paid about $7/win
last year, as measured by fWAR. Whatever you think of the
statistic, this is actually a stunningly accurate approximation
of FA salaries.
Given that the $/WAR paid to FA's will probably be a little
higher this year, and considering that Martin hasn't posted a
fWAR total lower than 1.9 since 2009, it's entirely reasonable
to peg him as being worth approx $15/yr on the open market. Then
consider the fact that current fWAR doesn't include pitch
framing values, and Martin's worth increases even more. You
don't have to believe that pitch framing is as valuable as the
baseball prospectus guys say it is in order to appreciate that
it's a meaningful part of the game. As Martin is one of the very
best in the game by all available measures of pitch framing, you
know there is SOME value there, whether its 0.5 WAR or 2 WAR.
Beyond pitch framing, game calling and staff handling are two of
the least understood areas of player evaluation, from a
numerical standpoint. Everyone knows there is value there, but
no one knows how to quantify it. Again, Martin excels in these
areas, and again there is value to his performance not captured
by WAR.
Lastly, whatever you think of the value of character and
leadership, the current front office clearly places and emphasis
on it, and again, this is a measure of Martin's contribution not
captured by WAR.
So, in summary, the things WAR captures peg Martin as being
worth AT LEAST $15/year - and that's completely discounting his
BABIP-fueled 2014 numbers. Martin also excels in a number of
ways that WAR doesn't capture, but the game believes is
valuable, to the point that they represent a significant portion
of his perceived worth as a player. Yes, we need to assume he
will decline in the coming years, but there are enough
supporting skills here that I'd be quite satisfied with a $60/4
contract, especially given how well he seems to dovetail with
the team's current needs.
#Post#: 199758--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Ray Date: November 5, 2014, 3:53 pm
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I keep checking for updates. I have concluded this is going to
be a long, slow winter.
#Post#: 199759--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Ron Date: November 5, 2014, 3:58 pm
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Tico - Thanks for the really good post. The more I read and
think about Russell Martin, the more enthusiastic I am about the
idea of the Cubs acquiring him ... even if the contract ends up
being a difficult one in the last year or two. I would think it
likely the Cubs will be able to absorb that given all the young
and relatively inexpensive players. Seems like an excellent risk
to take.
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