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#Post#: 200624--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Some Guy
Date: November 13, 2014, 1:30 pm
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Hamels is a 4 year commitment, and if he performs well enough to
vest the 5th year, that's a good thing. $22.5M for that 5th year
will be a steal if he is good enough to vest it. Lester could
fall off a cliff at any point in a 6-7 year commitment.
And what Ron said about likelihood of pitcher injury/decline
also applies to why Hamels' shorter commitment might be a lot
less risky than what Lester gets.
And again, Hamels is just way better.
I can't comment on his future injury risk from whatever he had
at the start of last year, other than that he clearly came back
from it with no diminishment. He actually throws harder now than
ever.
#Post#: 200625--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Some Guy
Date: November 13, 2014, 1:35 pm
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But if Baez's potential is too much to part with, then how about
Russell? I know it's hard to think of losing him, but Hamels
would be such a huge get and we have so many other enticing
infield options. Russell is probably currently viewed as more
valuable than Baez, so maybe him straight up could substitute
for Baez+Edwards.
But I would rather still do the Baez+ deal than Russell. How
necessary is Baez's uncertain upside when we have all that other
power?
#Post#: 200627--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2014, 2:06 pm
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I think Baez's potential is the least among Bryant, Soler,
Russell and Baez. For that reason, if I wouldn't trade Baez for
Hamels, I certainly wouldn't trade one of the others that I
believe are better.
I don't think we have a shortstop to "spare". What makes these
prospects rather unique is that they are not merely "shortstop
or infield" prospects. Each of them have the defensive
potential to play shortstop, but in addition, each of them have
the offensive potential potential to play several other
positions. Even if every single one of them reaches their
ceiling, (something that is incredibly unlikely), no one would
be blocking the others. we could easily have a line up of RF
Soler, CF Alcantara, 3B Bryant, SS Castro and 2B Baez, leaving
LF open for Schwarber, if he fails to make it as a catcher.
Most shortstop prospects do not have the offensive potential to
play other positions at a high level, so they lose substantial
value if moved to another position. Castro, Baez and Russell do
have that offensive potential, which makes them rare, if not
unique.
#Post#: 200629--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2014, 2:20 pm
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And in breaking news
"Boras also stated he thinks that the World Series should be
played in a warm weather neutral location similar to the Super
Bowl and that MLB draft order should be based on the teams'
record from the previous two seasons to dissuade tanking."
Actually, I think both ideas are good ones.
More surprising, Boras thinks the Cubs should spend more money
in the free agent market.
#Post#: 200631--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2014, 2:38 pm
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Someone in the comment section of CubsDen made a suggestion that
I had not thought of before, concerning free agents in this
year's class of IFA.
It is not legal to tell a prospective MLB free agent that you
will sign him as soon as you are able, because that would be
tampering, pure and simple. But to tell a free agent, ( which
is what Moncando will be) that you will sign him next July for
(insert your figure here) would not be tampering. Of course,
you couldn't make it binding on either side, so it would require
a substantial amount of trust on the part of the free agent
prospect.
#Post#: 200636--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 13, 2014, 3:14 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
>
> I don't think we have a shortstop to "spare". What makes
these prospects rather unique is that they are not merely
"shortstop or infield" prospects. Each of them have the
defensive potential to play shortstop, but in addition, each of
them have the offensive potential potential to play several
other positions. Even if every single one of them reaches their
ceiling, (something that is incredibly unlikely), no one would
be blocking the others. we could easily have a line up of RF
Soler, CF Alcantara, 3B Bryant, SS Castro and 2B Baez, leaving
LF open for Schwarber, if he fails to make it as a catcher.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Think you just supported the opposite of your argument. Where's
Russell in the above lineup? Blocked or blocking somebody else?
There isn't room for everybody 'if every single one of them
reaches their ceiling."
Somebody in that group is going to get traded in the next 15
months.
#Post#: 200637--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2014, 3:30 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Not an issue. Russell at 3B and Bryant in LF or the reverse.
Either one will work.
#Post#: 200639--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2014, 3:32 pm
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--- Quote from: Some Guy link ---
>
> Hamels is a 4 year commitment, and if he performs well enough
to vest the 5th year, that's a good thing. $22.5M for that 5th
year will be a steal if he is good enough to vest it. Lester
could fall off a cliff at any point in a 6-7 year commitment.
>
--- End Quote ---
His option vests on IP thrown. It doesn't have anything to do
with him being effective. The only way he doesn't vest the
option is if he's hurt and can't pitch 200 innings/year. Is
contract fairly values him and at 5 years (Fifth year vests at
$24 million), there isn't enough savings to give up an elite
prospect. If the Cubs are a World Series team, then that
changes the math on trading for him and what you would give.
The Cubs aren't at that point and with the pitching in the free
agent market this year and next that is the preferred way to
acquire pitching. Trading for Hamels takes away prospect
inventory and cash.
The difference between Lester and Hamels isn't worth Baez
either.
#Post#: 200641--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2014, 3:57 pm
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Moncada didn't defect from Cuba and was allowed to leave so he
still has a Cuban passport. I wonder if that will slow down the
US government from clearing him. Weird that Cuba let him go.
#Post#: 200643--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: November 13, 2014, 4:12 pm
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I would like to have Hamels, but I wouldn't go higher than
Alcantara plus lesser prospects to get him.
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