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#Post#: 200590--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: guest61
Date: November 13, 2014, 2:34 am
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HTML http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=chicagocubs&id=28065&city=chicago&src=desktop
#Post#: 200605--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: craig
Date: November 13, 2014, 8:29 am
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--- Quote from: Ron link ---
> Other than the fun of discussing totally hypothetical trades
(with no particular basis in reality), is there some reason that
there is talk here about trading Castro? Or Baez? Does anyone
seriously believe there is any serious chance of either being
traded this winter? I certainly don't.
--- End Quote ---
I do actually. I'd guess the probability more on the 5-10%
range; small but not insignificant and not too tiny to discuss.
The front office knows they've got three really valuable SS/2B
assets. Castro, Baez, and Russell each has the value to be the
prime piece in trade for a *major* guy, be that a Hamels or
whoever. With three studs for two spots, I think there's a
realistic scenario where they'd consider trading one of those
studs now, if they get a stud back in return.
Likely that there be a match that makes mutual club-controlled
sense, obviously not. But I don't think wondering about
possible Baez trades is ridiculous.
#Post#: 200606--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 13, 2014, 9:03 am
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Bob Nightengale on the Hamels situation:
HTML http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/11/12/cole-hamels-trade-chances/18945013/
Hamels wants to be traded, the Phillies want (and need) to trade
him, and the Cubs and Red Sox want him, but no one is willing to
give up the prospects. It'll be interesting to see how this
plays out--they almost have to deal him, so it might come down
to them just accepting an offer of far less than they expected
to get.
#Post#: 200608--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2014, 9:12 am
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Cubs Den linked to a Phillies blog where he did a 4 part series
on trading Hamels. He pegged his surplus value at somewhere
between $70 million (using rWAR and no decline) to -$7 million
on his contract. He thought that a fair offer from the Cubs
would include Baez, Edwards, Johnson, Torres (SS). To me that
just seems like a lot. I think there is some surplus value in
his contract, but it isn't a ton. If the Philllies would like
to trade him they may be better off doing it at the trade
deadline.
#Post#: 200611--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2014, 10:08 am
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Hamels surplus value comes from the difference between what will
be paid for him (salary and prospects) and what would be paid
for a similar pitcher. Without arguing who is better or worse,
if, for example, Lester is considered to be equal in value to
Hamels, and if you had to pay 20 million total for an equal
number of year for him, than Hamel's surplus value would be 20
million dollars. Less, of course, the value of the prospects
that would have to be given up to get Hamels.
Is there anyone out there that thinks that if Baez were made a
free agent right now, that he could not be signed for well over
20 million dollars?
Hamels has no surplus value at the present time.
#Post#: 200618--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Some Guy
Date: November 13, 2014, 12:30 pm
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Hamels is better than Lester, and signed for 4 years instead of
the 6-7 it will take with Lester. The AAV is probably a bit less
too, but that is a relatively minor thing. And if you trade for
him, you actually get him. No guarantee that a willingness to
pay a FA gets you the FA.
Because of these things, I think the Phillies' asking price
isn't as delusional as everyone thinks. I would do that
Baez/Edwards/Johnson/Torres deal. Or perhaps
Baez/Edwards/Castillo if we get Martin.
#Post#: 200619--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 13, 2014, 12:37 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> The front office knows they've got three really valuable SS/2B
assets. Castro, Baez, and Russell each has the value to be the
prime piece in trade for a *major* guy, be that a Hamels or
whoever. With three studs for two spots, I think there's a
realistic scenario where they'd consider trading one of those
studs now, if they get a stud back in return.
>
> Likely that there be a match that makes mutual club-controlled
sense, obviously not. But I don't think wondering about
possible Baez trades is ridiculous.
--- End Quote ---
I don't think wondering about it is ridiculous. I do think
discussing it as a serious possibility is unrealistic and
ignores what the Cubs have said and done up to this point, as
well as the developmental stages of the various players.
I think it's likely, maybe even probable, that Baez and Russell
will prove to be good major leaguers, as good or better than
Castro. But the fact is neither has shown that he can be
successful at that level yet. Russell hasn't even tasted AAA
pitching.
Castro, for all his limitations, has proven he's a good major
league SS (to the point of being a three time All-Star). This
last season was his best season yet, overall, with his offense
in the top three among NL SS, with his defense becoming much
steadier. And he's just beginning to enter what should be his
prime years. I believe there is zero chance that he'll be
traded this winter, before the Cubs have any assurance that
there is someone who can step in and replace him effectively
during a season in which Theo has been so unabashed about trying
to win the division.
#Post#: 200621--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: craig
Date: November 13, 2014, 12:57 pm
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Agree, Ron. Castro/Baez/Russell may be three stud values, but
they are very different men and at very different stages.
Castro isn't getting traded this winter, for the reasons you
state. Baez is in a different situation; discussing him in a
Hamels-type trade is more realistic.
#Post#: 200622--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2014, 12:58 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Some Guy link ---
>
> Hamels is better than Lester, and signed for 4 years instead
of the 6-7 it will take with Lester. The AAV is probably a bit
less too, but that is a relatively minor thing. And if you trade
for him, you actually get him. No guarantee that a willingness
to pay a FA gets you the FA.
>
> Because of these things, I think the Phillies' asking price
isn't as delusional as everyone thinks. I would do that
Baez/Edwards/Johnson/Torres deal. Or perhaps
Baez/Edwards/Castillo if we get Martin.
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Hamels is he performs well is 4 year deal with a vesting option.
The only way it doesn't vest is if he is injured, so a team
should basically look at it as a 5 year deal. Lester will
likely require a 6 year, not a seven year deal. So the
difference between them is maybe $3 million/year and 1 extra
year. To me that isn't enough to give up Baez for.
Hamels is the better pitcher, but he also had some arm issues to
start the year. The best predictor for future injuries is a
previous injury. So it also makes Hamels the riskier option.
I'm not a huge fan of Scherzer, but I'd prefer him to Hamels as
well.
#Post#: 200623--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 13, 2014, 1:04 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Agree, Ron. Castro/Baez/Russell may be three stud values, but
they are very different men and at very different stages.
Castro isn't getting traded this winter, for the reasons you
state. Baez is in a different situation; discussing him in a
Hamels-type trade is more realistic.
>
--- End Quote ---
Unless the Cubs think Baez will not be able to make the
necessary adjustments at the plate, I also can't envision them
trading him, given his extraordinary ceiling - a quality
defensive middle infielder with astonishing power. Every
pitcher has a pretty high likelihood of injury or sudden decline
which I think causes the Cubs brass to value arms far less than
the type of player Baez could well become. Maybe I'm misreading
the priorities and biases of Theo and company, but I don't think
so.
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