DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Archives
*****************************************************
#Post#: 200526--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: guest61
Date: November 12, 2014, 4:12 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I could see Baez being traded because of his struggles and with
Russell being right on his heels but I personally wouldnt trade
Castro.
I wouldnt want to move AA either.
#Post#: 200531--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 12, 2014, 5:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I don't think that either will be traded. But unless he
dominates spring training, I think Baez will start the year at
Iowa.
#Post#: 200540--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 12, 2014, 6:32 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: JR link ---
>
> I still think Baez is going to be a star. Just too much
talent, and his aptitude for hitting once he figures out a level
usually turns out to be just fine. I still think a little too
much is being made of what he did in his first major league
appearance as a 21 year old.
>
--- End Quote ---
At the lower levels he may well have done exactly that --
figured it out. In the majors he is going to have to actually
recognize pitches. So far we don't have much indication he is
capable of doing that.
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Baez did horribly in 2014. But it is hard for me to imagine
that he will NOT improve at all with more experience.
> Last year, in one of the worst performances imaginable for a
rookie, Baez hit home runs at a full-season pace of 27. He
doesn't need to improve much to reach 35 HRs per season.
>
--- End Quote ---
He hit 9 HR in 2014. 7 of them came in his first 82 AB. Only 2
of them came in his last 102 AB. There may be more reason to
think that as pitchers become more familiar with him, we will
see fewer HR, than to think we will see more.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> With 40 HR:
> 230K => .763 OPS OBP = .279
>
--- End Quote ---
Cut the HR in half, and that OPS is going to take an ugly hit.
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Number of SS with over 300 AB last year that beat the 230 K
projection OPS projection in order. Tulo, Ramirez, Peralta, and
Castro.
>
--- End Quote ---
True.... if you also project him at 40, which I think is more
than a bit high.
--- Quote from: DelMarFan link ---
>
> I don't think I could bring myself to trade Baez for anything
other than a "blown away" return right now. There's just too
much attention being paid to his start, and the one thing we
knew about his start going into it was that it was going to be
bad.
>
--- End Quote ---
Perhaps some are looking at his bad start. I have been more
concerned with his bad finish. For the
season he had a slash line of .169/.227/
For the last 28 days it was: .155/.248/.237/.485
For the last 14 days it was: .157/.218/.157/.375
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> My fun Baez calucation. .330 BABIP, 195K, 665 PA, 40 HR, 29
2B, 2 3B, 41 BB. Gives you an OPS of .904.
>
--- End Quote ---
He had a BABIP of .248 for 2014. .330 might be a bit on the
high side. His K rate also actually worsened as the year wore
on. 195 K's is a K rate of only 29%. His K rate in the majors
in 2014 was 41%. In his minor league career it was 26%, getting
worse at every level along the way. Considering his pitch
recognition problems, and the way he seemingly committed before
the pitch was released, 235 K a year in a 665 PA appearance
season would seem much more realistic. And while he does have
40 HR power, that is not the same as saying he is likely to
connect often enough to do that. I would expect 20-25 HR,
unless he improves the pitch recognition problem. With those
revisions, I come up with the following:
.250 BABIP, 235 K, 665 PA, 25 HR, 30 2B, 3 3B, 41 BB, for an OPS
of .626, and of .594 with 20 HR, according to
HTML https://www.easycalculation.com/sports/baseball-ops-calculator.php
My hope is not that the Cubs trade him because I don't believe
he will approach the levels some of you expect, but that instead
the Cubs start him in the minors in 2015 and keep him there
until he seriously improves his pitch recognition, and then
comes back up to star in the majors. And if they do NOT trade
him this winter, I suspect they will send him back down to the
minors for exactly that reason.
#Post#: 200544--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 12, 2014, 6:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
The Cubs are likely to bring him along on the same path as
Rizzo. A stay in the minors long enough to reestablish him as a
hitter (if he CAN be reestablished) and then back to the majors
after a long enough time has passed to set back his free agency
a year.
#Post#: 200546--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: PRCubFan
Date: November 12, 2014, 6:39 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Baez is supposed to play winter ball in Puerto Rico starting
Dec. 11th. He's supposed to start working on those adjustments
during winter ball. We'll see how it goes.
#Post#: 200547--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 12, 2014, 7:32 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
He can adjust his swing, his hands, his timing and his leg kick,
all of which might (or might not) help.
But his primary problem is pitch recognition, and his success at
lower levels in the minors indicates that he has had
considerable success in determining beforehand what a pitcher is
likely to be throwing and then guess-hitting. I doubt the level
of competition he faces in Puerto Rico is going to help greatly
with pitch recognition.
#Post#: 200552--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: OkieCubsFan
Date: November 12, 2014, 7:39 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
That's pure speculation. But if it's true, then Baez should
give up baseball and just play the lottery, since he clearly has
the ability to predict the future with great success.
#Post#: 200556--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 12, 2014, 7:52 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Francisco Cervelli traded to the Pirates.
I know he's always been a backup, but he has an .822 OPS in 223
PA over the last two seasons--so they could look at him as a
potential starter (or at least a guy who will split ABs with
another borderline starter). I wonder if this means they see
themselves as being out on Martin.
#Post#: 200557--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: guest61
Date: November 12, 2014, 7:54 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
They're smart then.
#Post#: 200559--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: brjones
Date: November 12, 2014, 7:56 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Yankees get LHP Justin Wilson in the Cervelli deal.
*****************************************************
Page 21 of 209
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page