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#Post#: 199696--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 4, 2014, 9:07 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=209.msg199680#msg199680
date=1415150028]
Thanks, didn't know that. How do Lester and Shields compare in
that regard? And, when you report the "extreme fly ball" rate,
is that statistic in terms of fly-to-grounder or fly-to-AB?
(When you K so many guys, that leaves fewer guys hitting the
ball anywhere, air or ground.)
[/quote]
The type of hit/BIP
Scherzer is GB% 36.7%, FB% 41.6% LD% 21.7%
Lester's GB rate was down last year at 42.4%, but he had been
45-53.6% in the past.
Scherzer's needs to be a high K pitcher to be effective, the
problem is his best pitch is a fastball. Unless you're Nolan
Ryan or on steroids you start to lose velocity in your 30's so
it is going to be less effective as time goes on. Throw in the
fly balls and his aging becomes scary.
Other than Wood, Bosio has been able to induce more GB's in his
pitchers, so I would expect Lester's GB% to go up. Lester's and
Samardzija's GB% dropped about 3% after their trade to A's so it
might be small sample size or something the A's want. So while
I think Lester isn't as talented as Scherzer, I think he'll age
better.
#Post#: 199703--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 4, 2014, 10:38 pm
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Kapman tweeted about Swisher/Jackson trade being rumored. At
least go for Bourn instead.
#Post#: 199706--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: JR Date: November 4, 2014, 10:50 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=209.msg199703#msg199703
date=1415162336]
Kapman tweeted about Swisher/Jackson trade being rumored.
[/quote]
Yeah but if they can't get Bourn, I think Swisher would be a
nice swap.
Actually I think I'd prefer Swisher. Bourn's speed looks like
it's going away, and he's not getting younger.
#Post#: 199710--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: brjones Date: November 4, 2014, 10:59 pm
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I'd prefer releasing Jackson to taking on Swisher. He's done.
He can't play OF anymore, so he's a no-hit 1B/DH only. Cubs
have no use for Swisher. He probably makes the team worse if
he starts over Olt.
Not a fan of Bourn either...but if the Cubs aren't going to
sign/trade for a good OF this offseason, a Jackson/Bourn trade
is probably okay.
Best case scenario might be just releasing Jackson and not
taking on someone else's mistake.
#Post#: 199711--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 4, 2014, 11:07 pm
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I don't like either. Swisher's knees are shot and he can only
play 1B/DH, his bat is iffy, and his clubhouse presence is
questionable.
#Post#: 199717--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: guest61 Date: November 5, 2014, 12:41 am
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You gotta take whatever you can get if somebody would take
Jackson.
I'd sure take Swisher in LF over several of the scrubs we've
trotted out their lately too.
#Post#: 199722--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: brjones Date: November 5, 2014, 6:31 am
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You don't have to take someone worse than Jackson back.
Swisher is coming off a season where he hit .208/.278/.331. He
had the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his
career. He has played only 33 games in the outfield the last
two years, including only 6 in 2014--he can't play out there
anymore. He's bad defensively at first base when he plays
there.
Jackson's contract isn't preventing the Cubs from making other
moves they want to make. He seems to get along with everyone,
and he hasn't blamed anyone but himself for his
performance--there's no indication that he's another Milton
Bradley situation. There's nothing wrong with just throwing him
into a mop-up relief role next year if someone like Swisher is
the best the Cubs can get in return.
#Post#: 199723--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Ron Date: November 5, 2014, 7:08 am
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Arguello on why he believes that Russell Martin will not become
a Cub.
HTML http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/11/cubs-to-make-strong-bid-for-russell-martin-not-so-fast/
#Post#: 199725--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Playtwo Date: November 5, 2014, 7:34 am
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Arguello makes some very good points.
#Post#: 199729--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: craig Date: November 5, 2014, 8:31 am
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Agree there. Arguello also makes some bad points, too.
1. He's talking $60/4 or $75/5.
2. He presents the age, availability, normal production prior
to this bizarro career year that Martin just had, and
availability to project why 2014 is non-representative and
non-predictive. Are John and Theo the only geniuses on the
planet to notice those factors? Those same factors that devalue
Martin to Arguello (very appropriately, I may add....) should
also devalue Martin to the rest of the market.
3. Likewise, the cost of a draft pick, and the cost of
discretionary millions that can't be used on other targets
applies to EVERY other team who might be interested (other than
Pittsburgh, as regards the draft pick.)
4. Arguello makes a reasonable point that Martin would provide
a larger upgrade in LA than in Chicago. Very true. But they
may have their own whole network of priorities. Might they bid
strongly for him? Perhaps so, and Arguello's argument that it
makes more sense for them to pay him strongly than the Cubs is
logical. But, not necessarily safe to assume the Dodgers will
choose to go strong on him. Maybe they'll want to spend
elsewhere, or maybe they don't want to add payroll at all, or
perhaps they'll want to address catcher in some other way.
5. IN terms of the draft choice, the Dodgers would be giving up
a higher pick than the Cubs. Dodgers would lose 1st round guy,
Cubs a 2nd. With the sandwich round squeezed in, the Dodgers
pick will be roughly 20 picks higher.
6. Arguello does a misleading double-count on the draft pick
analysis. He suggests that signing Martin would both cost that
2nd round pick AND the slot money which could otherwise be used
for getting somebody like Carson Sands. Their is truth to the
point; Stinnet signed under-slot, so both the underslot-amount
and the overslot allowance that comes with that slot were
available for later picks. But, last year the Cubs "saved"
$375K on Stinnet ($250 under slot plus the $125 10% overslot
allowance); Carson Sands came in $620 overslot. So Stinnett
pick wasn't nearly close to being sufficient to cover the Sands
pick.
Personally, I think Martin is like anybody else. He might be
useful, but the value has to match the dollars. I expect the
Cubs will make a solid offer, but with the age and the modest
offense projections for Martin and the draft pick involved as
well, I don't think they're going anywhere close to $60/4, not
even remotely close. If somebody else is going to offer than
kind of cash, I think Hoyer will be out of that discussion in a
blink.
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