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#Post#: 200454--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 11, 2014, 11:08 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Whatever happened to the philosophy that "home runs are an
efficient way to score runs"?
>
> I think that if Baez hits 35 home runs per year, the Cubs will
miss him.
>
--- End Quote ---
Ya think?
#Post#: 200455--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 11, 2014, 11:16 pm
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So either Wittenmyer has an accurate source that no one else in
baseball has, and everybody who the other reporters have checked
with is either lying or out of the loop ... or Wittenmyer is
simply wrong. Which of these two options is more likely?
So I'm thinking this particular rumor is probably not worth a
moment of consideration or discussion.
#Post#: 200456--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 11, 2014, 11:19 pm
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I think that of our top prospects, any that get traded the FO is
concerned about their future. The Dodgers used to be masters of
hyping players, begrudgingly trading them and then the player
flopped. The Cubs used to do it the other way around; let's
hope things have changed.
#Post#: 200459--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 12, 2014, 6:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> I think that of our top prospects, any that get traded the FO
is concerned about their future. The Dodgers used to be masters
of hyping players, begrudgingly trading them and then the player
flopped. The Cubs used to do it the other way around; let's
hope things have changed.
>
--- End Quote ---
That is about the only reason I can think of that the Theocracy
right after the season would have been talking about starting
Baez in the majors in 2015. He may one day, as davep suggested,
hit 35 HR in the majors in a single season. But that certainly
will not be the 2015 season, and, unless he changes his
hackaway, guess-hitting approach at the plate, and becomes much
better at recognizing pitches, it is very unlikely to ever
happen in any season.
Let's not ignore what he actually did in the majors in 2014. He
had an OPS+ of 51. He struck out 45% of his AB. He batted
.169. And he had a BABIP of .229. And for those looking at his
last three games and believing he was seriously improving
because he had one hit in his last game and was 3/5 two games
before that, he was hitless in 6 of his last 9 games, and went
4/39 in that period. For those pointing to those 9 HR and
believing all he has to do is figure things out a bit more and
he will then be a star, he was homerless in his last 14 games,
58 AB, meaning it appears that the figuring out which was
happening would appear to be the league figuring Baez out, not
the other way around.
He may still one day be a great star. But he is first going to
have to do at least two things we very seldom see hitters
successfully do at the major league level, and one (seriously
improve his pitch recognition) which hitters sometimes do, but
which there is no need to have them stinking up the majors while
they do it.
But, all of that said, if the Theocracy by the end of 2014
decided they wanted to move Baez instead of seeing him as a
cornerstone piece, the best thing for them to do would have been
to minimize his glaring flaws and talk about planning to start
him in the majors in 2015 after having him make some "minor"
changes in his approach which would fix everything.... and that
is what they in fact did.
He may or may not be traded this winter. But I doubt he breaks
camp with the Cubs in 2015.
If the Cubs could get Jordan Zimmerman for him, I hope they do
it, assuming a reasonable prospect of a contract extension.
#Post#: 200463--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: craig
Date: November 12, 2014, 8:43 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Seems common to view Baez as boom-or-bust. The perceived
superstar potential is why generally people don't want to
consider trading him.
I think it's unlikely that he'll be either an extreme star, or a
bust. More likely he'll become a useful guy, but not great.
Without Baez, we'd still project well long-term at 2B/SS with
Castro/Alcantara/Russell/Valbuena.
Trade discussion hinges on projection. I project .770-OPS, if
things go well for him. Good, but not too great to trade.
I'm getting the .770 by starting with: 620PA, 40walks, .300
BABIP, 30% of hits-in-play as doubles. Add 35 HR and 190 K, and
excel spits out a .773 OPS. (Assuming I set it up right....)
Which of those numbers are too unfavorable?
Changing to 50 HR => .883 OPS.
Dropping to 120K => .854 OPS, if 35HR and other numbers stay the
same.
#Post#: 200465--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: shasson
Date: November 12, 2014, 9:10 am
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Yesterday in Osaka the MLB all-star group (Cano, Altuve, Puig,
Zobrist, Longoria etc) got shut out by Kenta Madea for 5 innings
-- 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 Ks. MLB.com reported that "The
right-hander was working with a mid-90s fastball and a low-70s
curve with plenty of movement to keep the MLB hitters off
balance."
I tend to forget about him as a potential acquisition. Anyone
recall what the conventional wisdom is about what he will cost
in terms of posting fee+contract? If he really throws mid-90s
with a good curve and movement etc, he's pretty interesting.
#Post#: 200466--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: JR
Date: November 12, 2014, 9:28 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I still think Baez is going to be a star. Just too much talent,
and his aptitude for hitting once he figures out a level usually
turns out to be just fine.
I still think a little too much is being made of what he did in
his first major league appearance as a 21 year old.
#Post#: 200467--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 12, 2014, 9:50 am
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Trading Baez would take a giant set of balls. He may be a bust,
but 40 HR power from SS/2B with above average defense is super
rare now a days. With his ability to adjust he could make you
look really stupid.
#Post#: 200468--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: davep
Date: November 12, 2014, 9:51 am
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Baez did horribly in 2014. But it is hard for me to imagine
that he will NOT improve at all with more experience.
Last year, in one of the worst performances imaginable for a
rookie, Baez hit home runs at a full-season pace of 27. He
doesn't need to improve much to reach 35 HRs per season.
#Post#: 200475--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 12, 2014, 10:21 am
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All of you are forgetting the big bonus here. Dusty will
personally drive him to his next destination.
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