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#Post#: 200057--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: guest61 Date: November 9, 2014, 2:07 pm
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Not much and nope.
#Post#: 200059--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 9, 2014, 2:28 pm
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Let's assume a WAR value of $7 million/win. Castillo has been
roughly a 2 fWAR with a normal BABIP, while league average
offensive Martin is 4 fWAR player. Martin is going to decline
so let's assume 4, 4, 3, 2. Martin would provide 3 extra wins
so he'd be worth $21 million more than Castillo.
For just one second let's assume BP is roughly close on what
pitch framing is worth and accurate in calculating it. That
adds 2 wins/year to Martin and makes Castillo replacement level.
That makes Martin 6, 6, 5, 4 in extra wins to Castillo's zero.
That would make Martin worth $147 million more than Castillo.
Signing Martin also let's you trade Castillo and that would
bring back additional value as well.
#Post#: 200062--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: ticohans Date: November 9, 2014, 3:09 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=209.msg200056#msg200056
date=1415562370]
I agree with TICO. But one question that should be answered is
how much better, overall, is he than Castillo, and is that
increase worth 50 million dollars or so over the next 4 years.
[/quote]
DaveP, I personally believe there is significant value in pitch
framing, if not as much as some of the more extreme examples
suggest. I also believe that Martin has vastly superior skills
as compared to Castillo in the areas of game calling and
handling the staff in general. For these reasons, I perceive
Martin as a very large upgrade over Castillo (+value for Martin
on framing: he's one of the best; - value for Castillo on
framing: he's one of the worst; + value for Martin on game
calling; + value for Martin on staff handling; + value for the
makeup of Martin's offensive contributions: he's going to be a
higher OBP guy than Castillo, and we have enough SLG-first
types).
For all these reasons I would be quite happy to see the Cubs pay
$50 million more to Martin over the next 4-5 years. That also
renders Castillo a worthwhile trade chip.
#Post#: 200063--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: davep Date: November 9, 2014, 3:23 pm
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I don't value pitch framing as much as some, but I don't believe
it is valueless. I wouldn't recommend signing Martin for the
money and years that most are talking about, but if the Front
office signs him, I would have little problem with it.
#Post#: 200064--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Playtwo Date: November 9, 2014, 3:26 pm
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If we're going to spend a lot of money on front line starting
pitching, you would like to maximize value by having a quality
catcher to call games, frame pitches, and play defense. Not to
mention improved offense.
#Post#: 200077--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: craig Date: November 9, 2014, 7:04 pm
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reb posted an interesting link on the average production of
REGULARS, tracking the decline of average production from
2000-01 to 2005-06 to 2010-11.
HTML http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/news/2012/2613327.html
In 2010-11, the average OPS for REGULAR catchers was .766 OPS.
Seems shockingly high to me, and I assume decline has continued
since then. But I certainly assume that Martin (like Castillo),
will be significantly below-average offensively, compared to
other regular catchers, in the years ahead.
I'm not trying to argue against Martin, or whether or not he's
worth $60 or $75 or $134. His pitch framing and veteran
experience alone may be worth $134, beats me. That's way beyond
my scope and analysis, and I'm glad Theo and Hoyer can analyze
that kind of thing.
I'm just thinking that his past offense is being overrated a
bit, and I think his likely future offense may be somewhat
overrated by some of the posts.
I hope we get him. How good his offense is relative to an
average regular catcher is arguable, I think; but it's not that
arguable whether he's likely to be somewhat better than Castillo
offensively, and significantly so in other areas.
Improving the team is what matters. Given how many young
players will be WAY below normal salary, overpaying for a guy
isn't a big deal, IMO.
#Post#: 200080--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Jes Beard Date: November 9, 2014, 7:30 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=209.msg200077#msg200077
date=1415581452]
but it's not that arguable whether he's likely to be somewhat
better than Castillo offensively, and significantly so in other
areas.
[/quote]
Martin turns 32 in February. Castillo turns 28 in April.
Martin has a career OPS+ of 103. Castillo's is 98.
Given their ages, I would bet that Castillo provides a better
OPS over the next four years than Martin.
I am not saying the Cubs should be content with Castillo, or
that the Cubs should not pursue Martin, or offering any opinion
as to what either is worth, but just pointing out that there is
ample reason to expect more from Castillo's bat over the next
four years than Martin's.
#Post#: 200095--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: CUBluejays Date: November 9, 2014, 8:01 pm
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Using BA definition of a regular of 600 AB over 2 years as a
regular for catcher the avg OPS was .730. For catchers with
greater than 350 AB for this year it was .730.
Without his heavy BABIP or greatly increased slugging, I don't
think that Castillo comes close to that. Martin might need t
get there, but I think he has a better chance.
Pitch framing exists, I'm not sure how much value it has. It
sure would be interesting to hear what the Cubs think about it.
I am worried about Martin remaining productive for the length of
his contract, but the Cubs don't need to be super efficient with
their free agent money anymore.
Tico has there been in research on how well catching defense
ages?
#Post#: 200132--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Jes Beard Date: November 9, 2014, 8:41 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=209.msg200095#msg200095
date=1415584898]
Using BA definition of a regular of 600 AB over 2 years as a
regular for catcher the avg OPS was .730. For catchers with
greater than 350 AB for this year it was .730.
Without his heavy BABIP or greatly increased slugging, I don't
think that Castillo comes close to that. Martin might need t
get there, but I think he has a better chance.
[/quote]
Castillo's career OPS is 723, and last year was well below his
career average. A .730 from him is not at all hard to believe
for 2014. Though Martin beat .730 by quite a bit in 2014, it
was a career year at age 31, and in the prior 5 seasons he had
only done that well once.
#Post#: 200136--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2015
By: Ron Date: November 9, 2014, 8:47 pm
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I'm not sure why pitch framing has been focused on in the
discussion of Martin's defensive value. There are obviously
other components of defense for catchers. By all accounts
Martin is excellent in his work/leadership with pitchers, he's
clearly better at throwing out baserunners and my impression is
that he's considered superior to Castillo in other aspects of
the game as well. For those who think defense is critical in
evaluating the value of catchers, I don't see how anyone could
consider Martin anything but a very large upgrade over Castillo.
And the fact that his leadership (not only with pitchers but the
team as a whole) cannot be reduced to numbers does not keep it
from being an important factor for this team. And everything
I've read or heard about Martin is that he is an exceptional
leader. Whether everybody here thinks that is important, Theo
and Jed obviously do.
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