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#Post#: 200713--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 14, 2014, 8:46 am
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--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospects:
>
> 1. Addison Russell
> 2. Kris Bryant
> 3. Jorge Soler
> 4. Albert Almora
> 5. Kyle Schwarber
> 6. Billy McKinney
> 7. Pierce Johnson
> 8. Gleyber Torres
> 9. Dan Vogelbach
> 10. Carson Sands
>
>
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046
HTML http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046
--- End Quote ---
I've got to say that lists like this undermine the credibility
of sites like Baseball Prospectus. It's surprising to see
Almora ranked as highly as he is, particularly ahead of
Schwarber. But Dan Vogelbach rated higher than C.J. Edwards?
Seriously?
#Post#: 200714--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: shasson
Date: November 14, 2014, 9:17 am
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Honestly, Ron, I don't think it undermines their credibility --
Baseball Prospects is sort of what they do, right? Though
ranking Russell #1 and dropping Edwards out does smell a little
bit like click-bait. So maybe that does hit at their
credibility. Anyhow, it's fun to see an outsider's view.
Apparently some BP guys also released a podcast about the
rankings, and the concerns are with Edwards health and that they
project him as a reliever.
their top guys under 25 in the organization list is interesting
too (Baez over Soler?):
Anthony Rizzo
Starlin Castro
Addison Russell
Kris Bryant
Javier Baez
Jorge Soler
Arismendy Alcantara
Albert Almora
Kyle Hendricks
Neil Ramirez
#Post#: 200715--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 14, 2014, 9:19 am
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Bryant is the consensus #1 in baseball. Putting anyone ahead of
him weakens the cred.
#Post#: 200716--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: guest61
Date: November 14, 2014, 9:42 am
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Agreed Curt.
Edwards should not only be on the list but in the top 5.
#Post#: 200717--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: davep
Date: November 14, 2014, 9:48 am
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--- Quote from: DelMarFan link ---
>
> Hey, Dave, do you ever talk with your friend the scout
anymore?
>
--- End Quote ---
He retired several years ago, but still lives in Mesa. I talk
with him quite often.
#Post#: 200718--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: davep
Date: November 14, 2014, 9:57 am
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--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> Bryant is the consensus #1 in baseball. Putting anyone ahead
of him weakens the cred.
>
--- End Quote ---
It looks like they give a lot of weight to those who have
already performed at a high level in the majors, so it makes
sense that they put Rizzo and Castro at the top. The only
thing I can think of for Bryant is that they might think his
defense will mitigate his offensive value a little.
#Post#: 200723--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 14, 2014, 10:29 am
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On twitter BP explained the rankings.
Edwards is viewed only as a relief pitcher, so that downgraded
him.
Schwerber isn't viewed as being able to stick at catcher, so he
is a bat only prospect.
Still high on Almora and the think his bat will rebound and
still have plus D in CF.
Gorosch who saw most of the low A games for BP, thinks Tseng is
the pitcher in the system.
Russell over Bryant because of defensive value.
Interesting list to be sure. I have to wonder how much
influence Parks had on the list.
#Post#: 200732--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Ron
Date: November 14, 2014, 12:34 pm
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Listening to the Baseball Prospectus podcast now. They sure are
high on Addison Russell. Hope they are right. They did say that
Bryant started out as the #1 guy but after more thought they
decided to go with Russell - but close case. They said that
Russell could be the #1 prospect in all of baseball.
Interestingly, they believe that if he outgrows SS, he would
likely develop the power necessary for 3B. If it's true that
Russell has a higher ceiling than Bryant (a big if), and his
growth moves him off of middle infield, presumably that's a
scenario in which he could push Bryant off 3B and into the OF.
They think that when Russell moves to the major leagues, he is
likely to have an easier transition than guys like Baez,
Alcantara, Soler, and even Bryant (due to his longer swing and
higher swing and miss). They noted that Soler struggled quite a
bit in the last 20+ games in the major leagues. They do expect
Bryant to make the transition better than the three guys who
came up this season.
On Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora: They consider Schwarber in
a second tier, with Almora in first tier because he is an
"impact up the middle player," impact baserunner who "is going
to hit", with potential to grow into plus power.
On Schwarber: "more one dimensional, ability to hit for average,
good plate coverage, really sound, mature approach, plus or
better raw pop," who will be "a useful bat regardless of where
he slots." They said "odds are he's not a 100 game a year
catcher, maybe a 50 game a year catcher" who will be "a pretty
good bat, #5 or #6 bat in a lineup."
They compared that unfavorably to "Almora's ceiling ... "a #1 or
#2 bat in the order who is going to hit for average, hit for
power and give you big value on the defensive side and on the
bases."
"The key for Schwarber is going to be how much is the power
going to play in games and where's the value ultimately going to
come defensively." For Schwarber able to become all-star
depends on something extra happening ... such as him improving a
lot as catcher. "Not the staple of the lineup, but a really
important piece. A really good complementary member on a
championship team. Could afford to have him play 1B with guys
like Russell and Almora in the lineup."
It seemed to me that they were comparing Almora's ceiling to a
more conservative assessment of Schwarber's likely trajectory.
They were clearly not bothered by Almora's disappointing season,
nor his lack of walks or demonstrated power. But they considered
Schwarber's mediocre catching abilities a major issue (even
though he hadn't had the advantage of proper training at that
point).
Possible future major prospects mentioned: Gleyber Torres,
Sands, Steele, Stinnett, Zagunis, Underwood. Tseng not
mentioned for some reason. Cubs could still be in the top four
or five organizations even if graduate two top prospects
(Russell and Bryant).
Highly impressed with developmental approach to players, finding
strengths in player's profile and drawing those strengths out,
regardless of what they initially saw. Similar to what the
Cardinals do.
#Post#: 200734--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 14, 2014, 1:14 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> It looks like they give a lot of weight to those who have
already performed at a high level in the majors, so it makes
sense that they put Rizzo and Castro at the top. The only
thing I can think of for Bryant is that they might think his
defense will mitigate his offensive value a little.
>
--- End Quote ---
Wrong list, Dave.
#Post#: 200742--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: November 14, 2014, 2:02 pm
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Thanks for the podcast notes, Ron.
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