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#Post#: 199993--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: November 7, 2014, 10:09 pm
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Vitters over Wieters. Genius.
#Post#: 199996--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 7, 2014, 10:34 pm
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Starling Peralta signed a minor league successor contract with
Cubs, passing up free agency. He will be eligible for the Rule
5.
#Post#: 199998--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 7, 2014, 10:44 pm
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--- Quote from: StrikeZone link ---
>
> Vitters over Wieters. Genius.
>
--- End Quote ---
Not sure it's any consolation, but it wasn't a scouting
assessment. Wieters got a $6.0 bonus---more than the #1 pick
David Price ($5.6). Cubs ownership at the time didn't want to
pay the bonus Wieters demanded. Vitters signed for $3.2.
#Post#: 199999--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 7, 2014, 10:52 pm
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Ownership was diverting money away from the draft into free
agency to juice attendance to increase the selling price. I
believe the rumor was that KC was going to take Vitters and the
Cubs would have taken Jarred Parker instead. KC switched to
Moustakis at some point near the draft and the Cubs went with
the hitter over the pitcher.
#Post#: 200000--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 7, 2014, 11:00 pm
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Royals switched to Moustakis morning of draft day.
Yeah, Parker would have been the pick, but Parker would have
been a headache now with two TJ surgeries.
By the way, Wieters is a pending post-2015 FA.
#Post#: 200005--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 8, 2014, 2:42 am
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Just looked at Vogelbach's stats.
His first full season after the draft was 2012.
2012 AZL/Boise 1.051 OPS/.641 slg
2013 KC/Daytona .824/.449 (90% the season was in KC, but he
actually did better for Daytona -- .895 to .824)
2014 Daytona .787/.429
2014 AFL .697/.300 in 60 AB
Not a good trendline.
#Post#: 200013--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: November 8, 2014, 9:05 am
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Two uniques for Parker, that I doubt apply to anybody else:
1. Parker was ranked by BA as a top-50 prospect for five
straight years, without ever cracking the top 25.
2. He was #36 going into 2010, missed the whole season..... and
moved up to BA's #33 spot entering 2011.
Also flukey is that he's had six seasons in which he pitched >4
games in a league. His ERA has been in the 3's every single
time.
#Post#: 200015--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: November 8, 2014, 9:46 am
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Agree, jes. What gets me particularly is the slugging. No slug
= no succeed.
Hopefully we'll see a rebound this year. As JR has said, going
from anti-HR FSL to pro-HR Tennessee could boost his numbers
quite a bit. I'd also imagine/hope/expect that either Vogelbach
or somebody in the Cub coaching are aware that he's not going to
have either Cub-value or trade-value if he doesn't slug a lot
more. Probably it's just beyond his talents to do so, and that's
it. But when some of these other scouts still seem to think
he's got this 60-slugging rating, maybe there still is some
latent slugging potential, and perhaps some adjustment or change
in confidence will help find it? We're fans, why not hope so.
The one adjustment I'd think might work would be to simply be
more aggressive. In other words, hack more and hack earlier.
He's been a better than 2BB/3K guy at every step, which is
pretty unusual. His best (only?) standout skill thus far,
really, has been his high-walk rate, and that's been true again
in AFL. It's pretty impressive, really. Given that BB/K rate,
I wonder if he might not be able to make some of five
adjustments:
1. Swing more aggressively early in counts. Don't take so many
pitch-ones, which is often the most hittable pitch and often
where you see more fastballs. That will surely come at the
expense of reduced walks, no question. But, the K's will also
drop some to offset that, and if you get more HR hits the OBP
may dwindle little and the slugging may rise substantially? And
who knows, perhaps with more slugging you'll get more respect
walks anyway...
2. Just swing for the fences more. A little more leg kick, a
little longer swing, a little earlier commitment to the weight
shift needed for long balls. Given his very controlled K-rate,
he's got space to make some compromises without going K-crazy
dead. If he compromises some on his K's, but gets enough more
HR's, it's worth it.
3. Guess more? Baez usually guesses wrong and often misses
even when he guesses right, but he's guessed right enough to
slug his way to the majors. Perhaps Vogelbach should guess more
often and take bigger long-ball swings on his guesses.
Obviously you'll K more that way, but again he can afford to
K-more.
4. Adjust swing plane slightly in the uppercut direction?
Bryant and Schwarber had GO/AO ratios between 0.6-0.7, and when
Soler was killing AA he was below 0.7 too. (He grounded out a
lot once he got to Iowa and Chicago, though...) Not sure how
you adjust a swing path slightly, but if there is some possible
adjustment that could give Vogelbach a little more lift and get
fly balls, that might help him. With his lack of speed, I'm
sure infielders can play super deep on him, and that he may cost
a lot of stats-invisible outs via hitting into DP's. So ground
balls can't be his friend.
5. Intentionally try to pull more? Opposite-field power is
great, and he's got at least some. But a lot of long balls come
via pulling. Not sure how that would work. He just decides to
try? Commit his swing a hair earlier, at risk of more bad
swings? Shifts his stance by a couple degrees so his feet are
slightly more likely to step-in-the-bucket? Move an inch or two
closer to the plate? I don't know.
My understanding is that he has kind of tried some of these
things, without success. I think a story was that early last
spring, he WAS trying to pull and swing for the fences, with no
success. Maybe that means he's got no chance; but maybe he
overdid it, or just didn't stick with it long enough, or maybe
that was a myth.
Certainly most hitters are constantly looking for adjustments
that give them more success. Who has more invested and gives
more thought than the hitter himself? So in most cases, I think
hitters really have pretty much self-optimized their game and
stance and approach and swing plane and all that stuff.
Probably Vogelbach has done so, too, and has found that any of
my stupid simplistic notions make him worse.
But somehow, someway, the slugging needs to trend back up or his
career isn't going big-league.
#Post#: 200023--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 8, 2014, 1:31 pm
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Lifted this from Cubs Den--Kris Bryant 2014 spray chart. Helps
explain how Bryant hits for average while striking out a lot.
HTML http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/files/2014/11/bryant-spray-chart.png
#Post#: 200028--------------------------------------------------
Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: November 8, 2014, 2:40 pm
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Not exactly a pull hitter there, at least not when he puts it in
the air. Quite encouraging.
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