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#Post#: 197488--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 12, 2014, 10:27 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Valbuena was pretty effective this year, in a league where
offense is low, and on a Cubs team where OBP is very, very low.
I wouldn't diminish him.
>
--- End Quote ---
Don't diminish him, but don't diminish Olt, either, and do keep
in mind that Valbuena's line last year was more than 100 OPS
points about his career OPS up to last year, a career with
roughly three times as many plate appearance coming before last
year than he had last year, a season 20 OPS+ points better than
his next best season.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I think Bryant to left now makes a ton of sense. A year ago I
wouldn't have said that; and in June/July I wouldn't have said
that; but a lot has changed. Some of that change is some mixed
or negative feedback on his aptitude at 3B....
>
--- End Quote ---
Not sure I have seen that negative feedback about Bryant at 3B.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> After drafting Schwarber, I assumed he and Soler were planned
for the OF corners, so I didn't see how Bryant moving there
would fit. But, with Schwarber going to catcher, LF is now wide
open.
>
--- End Quote ---
LF is also about the easiest position on the field to fill,
whether thru trade or free agency. I think there is a very
strong chance Bryant is in LF for the Cubs in 2015, perhaps with
that move being used as the justification for starting him in
Iowa next year to give him some actual games there, a number
which might coincidentally roughly match the time the front
office might think would delay arbitration or FA eligibility,
but even if he starts his major league career in LF I would
still expect him a short time later to be playing 3B regularly.
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I think 3B is kind of funny, though. Last winter, there was
talk about how good/deep/rich we were there with Bryant, Olt,
Villanueva, and Candelario. Many "top" lists had both
Villanueva and Candelario in their top 10-12, and Olt-fans had
him arguably in that pool too. Who'd have guessed a year later
that the three non-Bryants would have all washed out, with
Bryant perhaps challenged enough defensively to move him off
too?
>
--- End Quote ---
If Olt had in fact washed out, it is unlikely the Cubs would
have given him the bulk of playing time at 3B in September once
he recovered from injury, and while there he had to have done
about as well as the front office could have expected, meaning
he would not seem to have washed out.
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Valbuena was a fWAR 2.7 player and wRC+ 116. The only reason
he isn't a lock for 2B/3B is Baez/Castro/Russell/Alcantara. He
could be a decent starter on a contending team.
>
--- End Quote ---
Valbuena's versatility also gives him considerable value for the
Cubs, probably more value than he would offer to most contending
teams.
Olt, however, has very little versatility, but if he does well
the first couple of months of the season, he would also offer
considerable value to other teams, likely more value than
Valbuena (who is two years younger, and much more expensive (arb
eligible next year), but Olt would have less value to the Cubs,
assuming Bryant has not forgotten how to hit when he reaches the
majors.
This is why I expect Valbuena to start the season with the Cubs,
but for Olt to start at 3B, with Bryant being in LF when he
comes up.
If Olt is doing as well the first couple of months of the season
as he did in Sept this year, (.263/.370'.368/.738, which
compares well to Valbuena's .249/.341/.435/.776 for the year,
and when you consider that Olt's line was in the absence of any
HR, and that the guy has always hit for power, what Olt did
looks even better), he might well be combined with either Castro
or Baez and perhaps a few lesser pieces to bring a true top of
the rotation starter. Valbuena does not really offer that kind
of potential.
I suspect 2015 will be a season when the front office is
genuinely concerned about winning games, and trying to position
the team for a shot at the playoffs. At the same time, when an
opportunity presents itself to try to create value, Epstein's
expression, I believe they will try to do so. Starting the
season with Olt at 3B would be an example of doing that.
#Post#: 197499--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: davep
Date: October 12, 2014, 3:58 pm
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If Olt is to start the season at 3B for the Cubs, it will
require an outstanding spring training. Even an adequate one
will probably relegate him to the bench, if not to Iowa. He has
a lot to prove, and probably not a whole lot of time to prove
it.
#Post#: 197511--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 12, 2014, 4:46 pm
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Absent major trades of significant young pieces, and absent
injury, Castro at SS, Rizzo at 1B, and Soler in RF would appear
to be locks for opening day 2015.
Despite even the front office talking about Baez starting at 2B
to start the season next year, I anticipate a spring training
performance much like what he did in the majors this year, and
that will likely result in him starting the season in Iowa.
That leaves Valbuena and Alcantara available for 2B, and
Alcantara can play CF, putting both of them in the lineup, and
filling two of the remaining position holes. If Coughlin is not
dealt, he will likely be in LF, leaving 3B open. If the Cubs
want to delay starting Bryant's major league service time,
having him start the season in Iowa to give him game experience
there would be the perfect excuse to do it, and would give the
Cubs the opportunity to create value with Olt.
Right now Olt has very little value. But if he starts the
season at 3B, and for the first two to three months does like he
did in the majors in September, with the addition of the power
he has always had but which was absent in September, and he
becomes a very valuable trade chip, likely much more valuable
than Valbuena to other teams, because of age and salary
considerations (not so much current salary, but coming increases
related to service time).
I agree with you that if Olt struggles in the spring, he is
unlikely to have thirdbase just handed to him. I simply think
we may disagree as to how well he would have to do to get the
position on opening day.
#Post#: 197642--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 13, 2014, 9:11 pm
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Bleacher Nation did a piece on pitch framing. Wellington
Castillo is bad, really bad.
HTML http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/10/13/ugly-ugly-pitch-framing-for-the-chicago-cubs-this-year-may-have-cost-them-several-wins/
BP had the Cubs at -228 strikes or about 33 runs or 3 wins due
to pitch framing. Oakland was about a 100 strikes better than
the Cubs, and Samardzija walk rate dropped by 1.6/9. It might
be small sample, but interesting. Most of the other systems for
pitch framing had the Cubs/Castillo close to what BP showed.
#Post#: 197668--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: October 14, 2014, 11:12 am
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If that's not an excellent reason to adopt an automated strike
zone, I don't know what is.
#Post#: 197670--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Robb
Date: October 14, 2014, 11:16 am
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Can't we just hire Bartolo Colon as his off-season eating
consultant? If that doesn't work, nothing will.
#Post#: 197722--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 14, 2014, 9:24 pm
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Interesting interview with John Mallee, the Cubs' new hitting
coach.
HTML http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2014/10/hitting-coach-john-mallee-talked-philosophy-approach-and-working-with-the-cubs.php#.VD3XgPldWSo
HTML http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2014/10/hitting-coach-john-mallee-talked-philosophy-approach-and-working-with-the-cubs.php#.VD3XgPldWSo
#Post#: 197736--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: October 14, 2014, 11:08 pm
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thanks ron.
#Post#: 197749--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: October 15, 2014, 7:30 am
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Odd article:
HTML http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/ct-rosenthal-cubs-tv-1015-biz-20141014-column.html
#Post#: 197754--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: October 15, 2014, 9:19 am
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I can't open tribune articles. What does it say?
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