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#Post#: 197227--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 8, 2014, 3:29 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
>
> ......This was a crazy career year for Martin. During the
previous five years, Martin's OPS ranged from .679-.732 OPS.
Castillo has ranged from .686-.754. So fair chance that the two
will be kind of similar OPS-wise, although Castillo with more
power and Russell more OBP. Russell hadn't hit over .250 since
2008, so his .290 this year is major outlier.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yeah, think you have to figure very significant reduction in
2015 Martin offense. The new Fangraphs/Steamer 2015 projection
for Martin is .723 (243-340-384).
But, Martin's defensive value is so high that Fangraphs has him
as a 3.1 WAR guy for 2015 (even with a .109 drop in OPS)--better
than any Cubs 2015 WAR projection other than Rizzo.
Even with Martin aboard, for sake of discussion, think Cubs keep
Castillo as a backup (about $2 or so as 1st year arb guy).
Castillo as a backup still big upgrade over John Baker, who
brought down Catcher OPS, even in part time role, with his .504
OPS.
On that note, keep in mind that Cubs catchers were FIRST in NL
catcher OPS in 2013, in no small part because of Navarro's .850
OPS in a part-time role. So, Martin upgrades offense for a
whole 162 games--even in games he doesn't play because we won't
have a Baker-type dragging down offense when the backup plays.
Also, Martin would get more days off with a capable guy like
Castillo as the #2, which probably helps Martin stay fresh and
perform.
In the end, guessing that Pirates manage to re-sign Martin.
Bucs need him more than anyone else and may well go to four
years to get it done. Kind of doubt Theo/Hoyer go four years on
Martin.
#Post#: 197232--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 8, 2014, 5:23 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> But, Martin's defensive value is so high that Fangraphs has
him as a 3.1 WAR guy for 2015 (even with a .109 drop in
OPS)--better than any Cubs 2015 WAR projection other than Rizzo.
>
--- End Quote ---
One more reason to seriously discount Fangraphs' projections.
In 24 games this season Soler had a WAR of 1.0. Coughlin, in
432 PA, had an offensive WAR of 2.0. So even if Soler's defense
offers nothing above replacement value (which is a bit hard to
accept), and even if his 2015 offensive output dips to what the
Cubs got this year from Coughlin, if Soler plays a full season,
he would presumably end up with a WAR of roughly 3, and it would
seem reasonable to expect more of Soler's bat next year than the
Cubs got from Coughlin.
#Post#: 197233--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: October 8, 2014, 5:57 pm
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jes, WAR is a) a volume-based stat and b) a record of past
performance. Not a predictive stat.
#Post#: 197234--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: guest61
Date: October 8, 2014, 6:15 pm
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You should know better Craig.
#Post#: 197240--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 8, 2014, 7:50 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> jes, WAR is a) a volume-based stat and b) a record of past
performance. Not a predictive stat.
>
--- End Quote ---
Craig, nothing in my post suggested otherwise.
#Post#: 197241--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: ticohans
Date: October 8, 2014, 7:51 pm
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(comment redacted, cause I don't need to be an asshole, and now
Dusty's comment still makes sense)
#Post#: 197244--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: guest61
Date: October 8, 2014, 8:02 pm
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Yes you do Tico.
#Post#: 197278--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: brjones
Date: October 9, 2014, 3:01 pm
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John Mallee is the new hitting coach, and Eric Hinske is the
assistant. Doug Dascenzo (fired by the Braves after the season)
is the first base/outfield coach.
#Post#: 197279--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: shasson
Date: October 9, 2014, 3:35 pm
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Sensible. Mallee was considered impactful and successful in
Houston.
Again, from his website, his philosophy:
HTML http://www.johnmallee.com/6-absolutes.html
And some endorsements from Stanton, Aluve etc (obviously if
asked to promote someone on their website, a pro is going to say
all the right things so I don't read much into the endorsements.
but, he did work with Stanton and Aluve, so he has experience
with both tall and short hitters...ummm, ok, anyhow):
HTML http://www.johnmallee.com/what-pros-say.html
#Post#: 197354--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 10, 2014, 3:46 pm
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Here's the link to John Arguello's summary of Theo's comments at
today's season ticket holder event. It makes for a nice read,
including his comments at the end about the culture/attitude of
the young players in Arizona.
HTML http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/10/that-is-soooo-cub-and-thats-a-good-thing/
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