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#Post#: 197183--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: October 7, 2014, 10:44 pm
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Ben, I wonder about the "bringing in leaders". I'm sure some
veteran pinch hitters can provide some perspective and stuff.
But I'm not sure expecting bench players to be your leaders can
lower the mountain greatly. Maybe they'll get Russell Martin
and he'll start. But catcher and maybe CF seem to be the only
two spots where a veteran leader would actually get to play
much. HOyer's comments about the lineup seemed to imply more
bench guys than regulars. Obviously Lake and Olt and Kalish
didn't provide a lot of leadership this year.
#Post#: 197185--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: October 7, 2014, 11:04 pm
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--- Quote from: Ron link ---
> This is an intriguing quote. It's from either Theo or Jed
(Patrick Mooney doesn't indicate which). It addresses something
Reb said recently about the need to limit how many big strikeout
guys end up in the lineup.
> “When it comes to on-base ability and when it comes to
contact, we have a lot of work to do,” Epstein said. “We can’t
assume because we know how much we’re going to emphasize it —
and how hard we’re going to work — that our players will show
some improvement over the coming years.
> “We’re also realistic. To a certain extent, those traits are
more innate than learned.”
>
HTML http://bleacherreport.com/tb/df5CM?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=chicago-cubs
>
> This seems to hint at the liklihood of trading one (or more)
of the highly regarded young players who don't fit the profile.
Rizzo and Soler would presumably be safe. Bryant too, given his
ability to get on base, maturity and potential for leadership.
Russell and Schwarber appear to match what the Cubs are looking
for going forward. Castro, Baez and Alcantara really don't fit
this profile, so the question is how many of them, and which
ones, are likely to remain Cubs in the coming years?
--- End Quote ---
Thanks, Ron. That is an interesting quote. Not sure what to
take from it.
1. We're going to emphasize and work hard.
2. We can't expect players to improve.
3. We have a lot of work to do.
Obviously the major-league club had terrible OBP. Some of the
games you'd look at the lineup and have only 3 guys with OBP's
of .300. (Or less when Rizzo was hurt.) But that was a roster
in which a ton of auto-out anti-OBP AB's were spent on Olt,
Lake, Baez, and Alcantara, and Schierholz, etc.
I'm not sure Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, or Russell project as OBP
liabilities, even with all of their K's. Nor
McKinney/Torres/Vogelbach type guys. With Baez and Alcantara
up, Almora is really the only big-name bad-OBP guy left in the
minors.
Not sure you'll want all three of Almora, Baez, and Alcantara in
the lineup at the same time with their OBP challenges. But one
or two of them wouldn't be the end of the world, if they're
providing serious power and good defense.
#Post#: 197198--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: ben
Date: October 7, 2014, 11:54 pm
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Craig, my best guess is that Cubs will go all-in on Russell
Martin. Though he's coming off an unusually good offensive
season he's not likely to reproduce in the future, he's:
* a control-the-strike-zone, historically hi-OBP hitter,
certainly for a catcher
* a catcher who pitchers universally love throwing to,
* an excellent, experienced team leader (which the young Cubs
lack)
* coming from within the division...our signing him would
seriously hurt one of our primary competitors, if we could sign
him.
On-field leaders are extremely important, particularly for young
teams. I'll agree that such a leader would have to be a
regular...a regular who's had playoff success and played in our
division last season would likely help us quite a bit!
Provided he could stay healthy.
#Post#: 197212--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: shasson
Date: October 8, 2014, 9:43 am
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I agree, Ben, about Martin. He checks a lot of boxes.
I'm interested to see where the Cubs go in terms of rounding out
the outfield corps. On one hand a guy like Jonny Gomes would
make sense as a platoon with Coughlan: in 1,500 career PAs
against lefties he has an .860 OPS (.376 on-base), he can play a
passable left-field and I'm pretty sure he's considered a great,
fun teammate in the Matt Stairs mold and has tons of playoff
experience. Then again, he has no upside and would have to be a
one-year bridge guy.
#Post#: 197214--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 8, 2014, 10:12 am
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I think we also have to consider that some of the guys we have
penciled in may be involved in some of those trades we discuss.
Coughlin, for example, may be a piece of a trade for an
outfielder. So might any of them, even Solar.
#Post#: 197215--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 8, 2014, 10:19 am
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Soler, Bryant, Baez, Russell, or Soler should only be traded for
Trout, Stanton, or Harper.
#Post#: 197216--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: craig
Date: October 8, 2014, 10:24 am
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Martin sounds interesting.
I wonder what the market/cost for him will be. He'll be 32, and
this is his big chance after a career year. I'd expect he'll be
able to get the top bidder to give at least 3 and perhaps 4
years. If he's $48/4, or $38/3, will Theo want to go there?
Obviously two-plus-option would be ideal for Cubs, since I hope
that Schwarber will be ready in two years. Having three should
be OK; having a perhaps regrettable last year of a deal is the
price you pay for free agency. Four years might be a little
long, though.
This was a crazy career year for Martin. During the previous
five years, Martin's OPS ranged from .679-.732 OPS. Castillo
has ranged from .686-.754. So fair chance that the two will be
kind of similar OPS-wise, although Castillo with more power and
Russell more OBP. Russell hadn't hit over .250 since 2008, so
his .290 this year is major outlier.
#Post#: 197217--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: ben
Date: October 8, 2014, 10:43 am
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Agreed, Craig. This year for Martin is an outlier. If Cubs go
heavily after him, I don't think the assumption will be that he
repeats his last season at the plate, but that his value will
be:
* providing solid, professional at bats,
* plus defense at a critical position and, most importantly,
* top-level, experienced leadership for both the young guys and
the pitching staff.
Of course, it would be hard to imagine that a Martin signing
would sit well with Castillo, who Jed has praised in recent
weeks. However, I don't recall Theo lavishing praise on
Castillo and there's little question but that Theo remains the
primary architect of the Plan.
Considering how the Giants and Cardinals seem to consistently
outperform in the postseason, having a solid, experienced team
leader at catcher seems rather appealing to me (not that the
Cubs will likely be ready for playoff baseball success in 2015).
#Post#: 197220--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: davep
Date: October 8, 2014, 10:59 am
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Epstein is the architect of the plane, but Hoyer is the executor
of it. I can't imagine that Epstein would overrule whoever
Hoyer decided to bring in. The same situation happened in
Boston when Epstein was STRONGLY against selecting the player
Hoyer wanted, to the extent that Epstein stormed out of the
draft room calling him a crazy SOB when Hoyer would not give in.
Hoyer got his man, Buchholz, and Epstein later told him he was
glad he was a crazy SOB.
#Post#: 197222--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '15 (09/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: bitterman
Date: October 8, 2014, 12:43 pm
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As of now, the plane is in Lake Michigan.
"Wings! Wings! I knew I forgot somethin'." - Theo Epstein
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