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#Post#: 186584--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Chris27
Date: July 9, 2014, 5:18 pm
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--- Quote ---
> That said, this is why his deal with the Yanks was terrible
and should not have been beaten by the Cubs: there is no
accounting for downside risk in it.
--- End Quote ---
Why? The Yankees got what they wanted whether it cost them what
it did or half that. Had the Cubs gotten him for the same term
but $30 less would it have been a bad deal for them?
It's not like there's a cap hindrance for NY. If he's hurt,
they'll just spend more on someone else.
#Post#: 186587--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: guest61
Date: July 9, 2014, 5:36 pm
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LOL Im not heartbroke over it.
#Post#: 186589--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: July 9, 2014, 5:43 pm
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Edwin Jackson, who will never have TJS.
#Post#: 186594--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: ticohans
Date: July 9, 2014, 5:52 pm
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I'd love to see tea start to offer crazy incentive deals to
pitchers.
For example: cubs tell Scherzer we'll give you $35 million in
2015. 2016 has 3 options:
1) automatic option of $35 million if 200IP reached
2) team option of $20 million
3) player option of $10 million
Those 3 options play out for the next 5 years with two caveats:
1) player can opt out and become FA at any time
2) team can opt out after two consecutive seasons of player
option being exercised
Potential outcomes:
1) Scherzer stays healthy and makes $210 million in 6 seasons
2) Scherzer doesn't stay completely healthy but performs well
enough that he bounces between the 20 million team options some
years and the 35 million automatic options other years
3) Scherzer doesn't stay completely healthy and his performance
suffers; he bounces around between 10 million player options, 20
million team options, and 35 million automatic options
4) Scherzer blows his arm out 1st day of spring training and
never recovers; he earns 35 million in 2015, exercises two
player options at 10 million, and the Cubs cancel his contract.
Scherzer earns 55 million in 3 years for doing nothing
The numbers probably need some tweaking, but there has to be a
workable format in there somewhere, right?
#Post#: 186595--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: July 9, 2014, 5:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: ticohans link ---
>
> I'd love to see tea start to offer crazy incentive deals to
pitchers.
>
> For example: cubs tell Scherzer we'll give you $35 million in
2015. 2016 has 3 options:
> 1) automatic option of $35 million if 200IP reached
> 2) team option of $20 million
> 3) player option of $10 million
>
> Those 3 options play out for the next 5 years with two
caveats:
> 1) player can opt out and become FA at any time
> 2) team can opt out after two consecutive seasons of player
option being exercised
>
> Potential outcomes:
>
> 1) Scherzer stays healthy and makes $210 million in 6 seasons
> 2) Scherzer doesn't stay completely healthy but performs well
enough that he bounces between the 20 million team options some
years and the 35 million automatic options other years
> 3) Scherzer doesn't stay completely healthy and his
performance suffers; he bounces around between 10 million player
options, 20 million team options, and 35 million automatic
options
> 4) Scherzer blows his arm out 1st day of spring training and
never recovers; he earns 35 million in 2015, exercises two
player options at 10 million, and the Cubs cancel his contract.
Scherzer earns 55 million in 3 years for doing nothing
>
> The numbers probably need some tweaking, but there has to be a
workable format in there somewhere, right?
>
--- End Quote ---
That is essentially the approach I suggested in 1999 with Wood.
And because I sincerely doubt that you and I are the only ones
to have thought of such approaches, AND the fact that no such
contract has ever been entered into, my guess is that such
approaches are inherently unattractive to most high quality
major league pitchers.
#Post#: 186596--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: ticohans
Date: July 9, 2014, 6:01 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Chris27 link ---
>
> Why? The Yankees got what they wanted whether it cost them
what it did or half that. Had the Cubs gotten him for the same
term but $30 less would it have been a bad deal for them?
>
> It's not like there's a cap hindrance for NY. If he's hurt,
they'll just spend more on someone else.
>
--- End Quote ---
So if you have the money to spend, and you really want a car
that should cost you $50,000, but you offer the dealer $150,000
just because, it's not a bad purchase?
#Post#: 186597--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: July 9, 2014, 6:02 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: PRCubFan link ---
>
> If I remember correctly, Tanaka was heavily abused in Japan.
Too much of a gamble with pitching. So if we agree we can't
give any pitchers long term deals, all the more reason why we
have to develop or trade for some young pitching.
>
--- End Quote ---
Or perhaps it is all the more reason to focus on building a very
strong offensive team, such as the Cubs are doing. The old Big
Red Machine teams of the early to mid-70's won not because of
their pitching, but often in spite of it.
#Post#: 186600--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: Chris27
Date: July 9, 2014, 6:27 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote ---
> So if you have the money to spend, and you really want a car
that should cost you $50,000, but you offer the dealer $150,000
just because, it's not a bad purchase?
--- End Quote ---
You say "should cost" like the Yankees could've gotten him for
significantly less. How do we know he signs for anything less?
Either way he was going to get a ton of money and nobody can
predict arm issues.
#Post#: 186601--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: ticohans
Date: July 9, 2014, 6:41 pm
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Based on what the market pays free agent pitchers who are known
entities - i.e. they have years of success against major league
hitters - the Yanks DID pay too much. It doesn't matter if other
teams may have done the same (and it doesn't seem like they did
- all reports suggested the Yanks were clear and away the
highest bid).
It's like that old mom-ism: just because all your friends are
jumping off the cliff, does that mean you should, too?
#Post#: 186602--------------------------------------------------
Re: Around Baseball (06/14 - 08/15)
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 9, 2014, 6:48 pm
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Scherzer is a horrible bet as a free agent, even for a pitcher.
He is the type of pitcher that just doesn't age well.
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