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#Post#: 164974--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: guest61
Date: January 19, 2014, 3:46 pm
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I hate to agree with Jes especially since Im the one who started
this conversation but IMO Samardzija's nowhere near the pitcher
Scherzer is.
#Post#: 164975--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 19, 2014, 4:00 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> I simple I don't understand advance metrics and have no wish
to learn about them would be fine. They are extremely close
prior to 2012. RA/9 only gains in predictive value after 6
season, which Max will be hitting this year. Jeff will only be
in his 3 year of starting and x-FIP and SIERA are much more
predictive of what future performance will be for him and Max
doesn't beat him in those to 2012. The predictive value stuff
comes from Tango Tiger who Theo/Jed hire to consult on advanced
metrics. You can type all you want, but it just sounds reads
like Charlie Brown's teacher.
>
--- End Quote ---
If that is coherent to anyone else, they are doing more guessing
as to what you meant than they are reading what you wrote.
The one part of it which is coherent, is simply at odds with
reality. That is the sentence reading: "They are extremely
close prior to 2012." Before 2012, Smardj had 5 starts in 128
major league appearances: 3.9% of his appearances. Before 2012,
Scherzer had 101 starts in 110 major league appearances: 91.9%
of his appearances. Before 2012, Smardj only had a total of
169 major league innings, while Scherzer had 617 major league
innings.
In his career, Smardj has had only three full seasons in the
majors, one as a reliever and two as a starter. He performed
very well in his full season of relief and in half of the first
of his two seasons as a starter. The rest of his time as a
starter calling his performance average is rather charitable.
He may still put it all together, and apparently he has enough
confidence in his ability that he is not wanting to sign for
what the Cubs are now offering. But he is not comparable to
Scherzer, neither before 2012, nor after 2012, nor over their
entire careers, nor even if you just look at Scherzer up to the
point he was the same age as Smradj.
#Post#: 164978--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: craig
Date: January 19, 2014, 4:35 pm
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Blue, most of us easily see your point. Samardz 12-13 looks
comparable/better compared to Scherzer pre-13, using some of
saber metrics.
I think it's also an obvious point that FA's often sign with the
highest bidder. If the Cubs sign Tanaka at $170 or whatever,
because they scout and believe that he projects to be worth it,
it doesn't mean that 30 other teams see it that way. I think
it's very plausible that if Samardz was a FA this winter, that
there might have been at least one team who would have looked at
his scouting and his advanced metrics and would have thought
that he'd be worth a $20-per investment. A team who figured
his advanced metrics projected more favorably than just his ERA
or ERA+, and who thought that with his stuff that his future
performance had so significant a chance to exceed his past
performance that he'd be worth a big contract.
#Post#: 164981--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 19, 2014, 5:29 pm
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Loxas also reported the Cubs deal with Budweiser was 10 years,
$140 million. Apparently their was a big issue about the Miller
sign in RF.
#Post#: 165032--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: bitterman
Date: January 20, 2014, 1:23 am
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Not a good team....no significant japanese community. ..no
Japanese players likely on the team (Fujikawa in July?)..
I see it as very likely that the cubs are being used solely to
drive up the cost of Tanaka for the yankees.
After Friday, look for Samardzjia rumors to heat back up. This
team is bad for another 3 years, minimum. Even If some of the
top prospects pan out, it typically takes several years to
establish yourself as a consistent performer. ..see Rizzo,
Castro, et al..
Sigh. Go Cubs.
#Post#: 165033--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: guest61
Date: January 20, 2014, 1:27 am
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Im not sure itll be a bad thing if we dont get to pay 20 million
plus per for Tanaka.
#Post#: 165037--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: bitterman
Date: January 20, 2014, 2:04 am
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This is the worst Cub outfield I can remember. Can anyone
remember a worse collection of outfielders?
#Post#: 165038--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Cubsin
Date: January 20, 2014, 2:57 am
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--- Quote from: bitterman link ---
>
> This is the worst Cub outfield I can remember. Can anyone
remember a worse collection of outfielders?
>
--- End Quote ---
1955 Cubs - Regulars were Hank Sauer (OPS+ of 77), Eddie Miksis
(62) and Jim King (94). Primary reserves were Frank Baumholtz
(86), Bob Speake (91), Jim Bolger (45) and Lloyd Merriman (61).
Sauer led the outfielders with 12 home runs. They weren't good
defensively, either.
#Post#: 165039--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Deeg
Date: January 20, 2014, 3:17 am
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Well, if you only have to go back 59 years we can't be in too
bad a shape.
#Post#: 165043--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: craig
Date: January 20, 2014, 7:54 am
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I recall an outfield in 1980 that was pretty bad.
With no injuries, the opening day lineup had 24-year-old rookie
Carlos Lezcano in center, and Kenny Henderson in right. Preston
Gomez was selling defensive excellence, and both were supposed
to be good-defense hustlers.
Sharing center that April was 23-year-old rookie Jesus Figuroa.
The other bench guy was Jerry Martin.
LF had Dave Kingman in his last season with the Cubs; he still
OPS'd at a solid .850, his last over .800, but his 18 HR didn't
approach his 48 or his league-leading OPS of the previous
season, and he only played in half the games.
Lezcano: the opening day starter hit .205 and played only 42
games.
Henderson: the opening day starter hit .195 and played only 44
games.
Figuroa: the opening weekend starter played in 115 games, with
a .601 OPS.
Jerry Martin: hit .227 in 141 games.
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