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       #Post#: 164974--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: guest61
       Date: January 19, 2014, 3:46 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I hate to agree with Jes especially since Im the one who started
       this conversation but IMO Samardzija's nowhere near the pitcher
       Scherzer is.
       #Post#: 164975--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: Jes Beard
       Date: January 19, 2014, 4:00 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
       >
       > I simple I don't understand advance metrics and have no wish
       to learn about them would be fine.  They are extremely close
       prior to 2012.  RA/9 only gains in predictive value after 6
       season, which Max will be hitting this year.  Jeff will only be
       in his 3 year of starting and x-FIP and SIERA are much more
       predictive of what future performance will be for him and Max
       doesn't beat him in those to 2012.  The predictive value stuff
       comes from Tango Tiger who Theo/Jed hire to consult on advanced
       metrics.  You can type all you want, but it just sounds reads
       like Charlie Brown's teacher.
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       If that is coherent to anyone else, they are doing more guessing
       as to what you meant than they are reading what you wrote.
       The one part of it which is coherent, is simply at odds with
       reality.  That is the sentence reading: "They are extremely
       close prior to 2012."  Before 2012, Smardj had 5 starts in 128
       major league appearances: 3.9% of his appearances.  Before 2012,
       Scherzer had 101 starts in 110 major league appearances: 91.9%
       of his appearances.   Before 2012, Smardj only had a total of
       169 major league innings, while Scherzer had 617 major league
       innings.
       In his career, Smardj has had only three full seasons in the
       majors, one as a reliever and two as a starter.  He performed
       very well in his full season of relief and in half of the first
       of his two seasons as a starter.  The rest of his time as a
       starter calling his performance average is rather charitable.
       He may still put it all together, and apparently he has enough
       confidence in his ability that he is not wanting to sign for
       what the Cubs are now offering.  But he is not comparable to
       Scherzer, neither before 2012, nor after 2012, nor over their
       entire careers, nor even if you just look at Scherzer up to the
       point he was the same age as Smradj.
       #Post#: 164978--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: craig
       Date: January 19, 2014, 4:35 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Blue, most of us easily see your point.  Samardz 12-13 looks
       comparable/better compared to Scherzer pre-13, using some of
       saber metrics.
       I think it's also an obvious point that FA's often sign with the
       highest bidder.  If the Cubs sign Tanaka at $170 or whatever,
       because they scout and believe that he projects to be worth it,
       it doesn't mean that 30 other teams see it that way.  I think
       it's very plausible that if Samardz was a FA this winter, that
       there might have been at least one team who would have looked at
       his scouting and his advanced metrics and would have thought
       that he'd be worth a $20-per investment.   A team who figured
       his advanced metrics projected more favorably than just his ERA
       or ERA+, and who thought that with his stuff that his future
       performance had so significant a chance to exceed his past
       performance that he'd be worth a big contract.
       #Post#: 164981--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: CUBluejays
       Date: January 19, 2014, 5:29 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Loxas also reported the Cubs deal with Budweiser was 10 years,
       $140 million.  Apparently their was a big issue about the Miller
       sign in RF.
       #Post#: 165032--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: bitterman
       Date: January 20, 2014, 1:23 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Not a good team....no significant japanese community. ..no
       Japanese players likely on the team (Fujikawa in July?)..
       I see it as very likely that the cubs are being used solely to
       drive up the cost of Tanaka for the yankees.
       After Friday, look for Samardzjia rumors to heat back up.  This
       team is bad for another 3 years, minimum.  Even If some of the
       top prospects pan out, it typically takes several years to
       establish yourself as a consistent performer. ..see Rizzo,
       Castro, et al..
       Sigh. Go Cubs.
       #Post#: 165033--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: guest61
       Date: January 20, 2014, 1:27 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Im not sure itll be a bad thing if we dont get to pay 20 million
       plus per for Tanaka.
       #Post#: 165037--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: bitterman
       Date: January 20, 2014, 2:04 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       This is the worst Cub outfield I can remember. Can anyone
       remember a worse collection of outfielders?
       #Post#: 165038--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: Cubsin
       Date: January 20, 2014, 2:57 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: bitterman link ---
       >
       > This is the worst Cub outfield I can remember. Can anyone
       remember a worse collection of outfielders?
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       1955 Cubs - Regulars were Hank Sauer (OPS+ of 77), Eddie Miksis
       (62) and Jim King (94). Primary reserves were Frank Baumholtz
       (86), Bob Speake (91), Jim Bolger (45) and Lloyd Merriman (61).
       Sauer led the outfielders with 12 home runs. They weren't good
       defensively, either.
       #Post#: 165039--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: Deeg
       Date: January 20, 2014, 3:17 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Well, if you only have to go back 59 years we can't be in too
       bad a shape.
       #Post#: 165043--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Cubs in '14
   DIR By: craig
       Date: January 20, 2014, 7:54 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I recall an outfield in 1980 that was pretty bad.
       With no injuries, the opening day lineup had 24-year-old rookie
       Carlos Lezcano in center, and Kenny Henderson in right.  Preston
       Gomez was selling defensive excellence, and both were supposed
       to be good-defense hustlers.
       Sharing center that April was 23-year-old rookie Jesus Figuroa.
       The other bench guy was Jerry Martin.
       LF had Dave Kingman in his last season with the Cubs; he still
       OPS'd at a solid .850, his last over .800, but his 18 HR didn't
       approach his 48 or his league-leading OPS of the previous
       season, and he only played in half the games.
       Lezcano:  the opening day starter hit .205 and played only 42
       games.
       Henderson:  the opening day starter hit .195 and played only 44
       games.
       Figuroa:  the opening weekend starter played in 115 games, with
       a .601 OPS.
       Jerry Martin:  hit .227 in 141 games.
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