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#Post#: 164916--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Ron
Date: January 18, 2014, 6:47 pm
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Man, Gordon Wittenmyer is working hard to both establish himself
as the most negative Cubs beat writer in history and
(presumably) burn any bridges he may have left with the Cubs.
He has an article in which he proclaims the Ricketts family as
"last" behind all prior Cub ownership. This, of course, is based
on the W-L record during their brief period of ownership. Very
sophisticated analysis on his part.
HTML http://www.suntimes.com/sports/25029402-419/so-far-ricketts-family-last-in-standings-among-cubs-owners.html
#Post#: 164917--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: DelMarFan
Date: January 18, 2014, 6:50 pm
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Tool.
It certainly looks to me (and has all along) that JedStein have
been saving their money for Tanaka, that they are All In on him,
and that they'll be pretty bummed if they don't get him.
#Post#: 164918--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 18, 2014, 7:10 pm
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--- Quote from: Jes Beard link ---
>
> Can anyone identify a pitcher in recent years who has had a
career profile close to Smardj at his age who the next season
did go on and have the break out kind of ace performance season
which would actually warrant $20M a year?
>
--- End Quote ---
Max Scherzer was a 3 fWAR pitcher for 3 years who broke out at
28/29. Samardzija's stuff is better though.
#Post#: 164935--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: brjones
Date: January 18, 2014, 9:39 pm
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--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> Man, Gordon Wittenmyer is working hard to both establish
himself as the most negative Cubs beat writer in history and
(presumably) burn any bridges he may have left with the Cubs.
>
--- End Quote ---
More evidence:
Gordon Wittenmyer ‏@GDubCub
Beware reports suggesting Cubs have high offer on table for
Tanaka or that he's favoring Cubs. Multiple sources say Cubs
remain long shots.
#Post#: 164955--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 19, 2014, 9:55 am
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Pretty iffy to project someone with serious durability
concerns as an innings-eater.
>
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote ---
> Quote
> Solid all-around, good fastball and strong curve, throws
strikes, main worry is history of forearm troubles. Mid-rotation
starter if his arm holds up. — John Sickels
--- End Quote ---
From Johnson himself:
On Baseball America saying “some scouts retain concern about his
arm action”: “In all honesty, I have no idea what they meant by
that. I’ve never had big arm problems. I had a forearm strain,
but I threw a lot of breaking balls in the game that happened
in. I’ve never had a shoulder problem. I do really good arm care
and try to be as smooth as possible with my delivery, just kind
of an easy motion. I’m not herky-jerky and don’t have any recoil
in my arm, or anything like that.”
HTML http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-pierce-johnson-chicago-cubs-pitching-prospect/
--- Quote ---
> As a thinner guy (at 6-3, Johnson weight hovers around 180),
there could have been questions about his durability, but he
held up well throughout the year and the stuff never
deteriorated in August.
--- End Quote ---
HTML http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/19877/season-review-cubs-top-prospects#more
--- Quote ---
> The only drawback with Johnson is his health, as he's overcome
some type of injury every year. However, none of the
injuries—most the result of bad luck—involved his elbow or
shoulder, so it’s not an overly concerning issue.
--- End Quote ---
HTML http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1203796-pierce-johnson-to-chicago-cubs-video-highlights-scouting-report-and-analysis
What seems "iffy" is less the projection of Johnson as an
"innings-eater" than the projection of durability concerns.
#Post#: 164956--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 19, 2014, 10:11 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Max Scherzer was a 3 fWAR pitcher for 3 years who broke out at
28/29. Samardzija's stuff is better though.
>
--- End Quote ---
Accepting for a moment the flawed idea that Scherzer is in fact
quite comparable, and even giving the comparison bonus points
for both names beginning with an "S" and having a "Z" in the
middle and for the purpose of discussion accepting Scherzer as
perfectly comparable, it is noteworthy that after his true
breakout 2013 season, and putting up a year even Smardj's momma
doesn't expect Smardj to match in 2014, Scherzer still did not
get a contract of $20M a year. He signed just two days ago for
one year and less than $15M.
And that was for a pitcher who before that breakout 2013 season
already had four consecutive seasons as a major league starter
with more than 170 innings a season and an ERA+ of 108 or better
in three of the four seasons. Smardj does not have a single
season that good.
I understand the idea of paying for future performance instead
of past performance, but past performance is a far better
indication of future performance that "stuff" is. Farnsworth
always had great "stuff."
#Post#: 164961--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 19, 2014, 1:00 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Well let's look at past performance of Scherzer and Samardzija.
Keep in mind that the stats I'm using have a better correlation
to future performance than ERA, ERA+ than the small sample sizes
that Scherzer and Samarzija have been pitching.
Scherzer 2012 was his breakout
2009 xFIP 3.68 xFIP- 90 SIERA 3.69 ERA 4.12 ERA- 93 K% 23.5
BB% 8.5 FB 93.6
2010 xFIP 3.70 xFIP- 88 SIERA 3.68 ERA 3.50 ERA- 83 K% 23
BB% 8.8 FB 93.1
2011 xFIP 3.70 xFIP- 91 SIERA 3.63 ERA 4.43 ERA- 106 K% 20.9
BB% 6.7 FB 93.1
2012 xFIP 3.23 xFIP- 78 SIERA 2.99 ERA 3.74 ERA- 90 K% 29.4
BB% 7.6 FB 94.2
Samardzija
2012 xFIP 3.38 xFIP- 87 SIERA 3.40 ERA 3.81 ERA- 93 K% 24.9
BB% 7.8 FB 95.1
2013 XFIP 3.45 XFIP- 92 SIERA 3.60 ERA 4.34 ERA- 112 K% 23.4
BB% 8.5 FB 94.6
Yep they have nothing uncommon, and Scherzer will be well over
$20 million/year when he signs his free agent contract.
#Post#: 164963--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 19, 2014, 2:05 pm
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I have no trouble believing SCHERZER will get more than
$20M/year as a FA if his 2014 is close to his 2013 season.
Smardz is not Scherzer.
Scherzer has now produced three seasons (including) 2013 better
than any season from Smardz, with each of the three also better
than the most recent from Smardj.
They really are not close.
#Post#: 164967--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 19, 2014, 2:30 pm
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I simple I don't understand advance metrics and have no wish to
learn about them would be fine. They are extremely close prior
to 2012. RA/9 only gains in predictive value after 6 season,
which Max will be hitting this year. Jeff will only be in his 3
year of starting and x-FIP and SIERA are much more predictive of
what future performance will be for him and Max doesn't beat him
in those to 2012. The predictive value stuff comes from Tango
Tiger who Theo/Jed hire to consult on advanced metrics. You can
type all you want, but it just sounds reads like Charlie Brown's
teacher.
#Post#: 164972--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Ron
Date: January 19, 2014, 3:31 pm
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Loxas says a settlement with the rooftop owners may be
"imminent." This being a Chicago issue (and not an MLB one) he
may actually have good sources (with rooftop owners) for this.
It would be nice to have this resolved so that the renovations
can begin as soon as weather and the baseball schedule permit.
HTML http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insider/2014/01/cubs-and-rooftop-association-deal-appears-imminent/
HTML http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insider/2014/01/cubs-and-rooftop-association-deal-appears-imminent/
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