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#Post#: 164851--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 18, 2014, 7:58 am
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> It's kind of deceptive to pick out Lincicum, a guy obviously
on the decline. There are also a lot of pitchers a lot better
than Shark making less than $20 million.
>
--- End Quote ---
Of course, but you have to do that sort of thing to support
foolish positions.
#Post#: 164853--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: craig
Date: January 18, 2014, 8:16 am
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I think blue's point is fair. The market is always changing, so
speculating on what Sam would get on an older market is
pointless. The market now is what Tanaka is shopping in, what
Samardz would see were he free, what Kershaw just signed in, and
what Tanaka is buzzing. The market Samardz will see two winters
from now is likely to be as high or higher than it is now, which
is one reason why not extending now is his choice. Sure,
Lincecum's deal seemed high even now, but the Giants don't have
any record of being a dumb org.
It's amazing that the market has reached this level for a game
that on the national level has faded in popularity.
#Post#: 164854--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Deeg
Date: January 18, 2014, 8:23 am
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But Craig, the Samardzjia situation is completely different from
the Tanaka situation - which is unique - and from the Kershaw
situation simply because Kershaw is a much, much better pitcher.
I just don't see either of them as all that illustrative.
Is Spellcheck wants to wait and test the market in two years,
that is indeed his call - and it certainly might escalate a lot
more (or he could tear his rotator cuff and never pitch again).
But if the question is what would he get now if he were a FA,
there's no way in hell he'd get anywhere close to what Tanaka is
going to get. In today's market, he's simply not a $20 million
pitcher.
#Post#: 164855--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: craig
Date: January 18, 2014, 8:24 am
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Last year 7 teams opened with payrolls over $140. To simplify
the numbers for roundoff, $140 spread over 14 "main" players
averages to $10 per main player. (8 regulars, 5 rotation guys,
1 closer).
We're very close to a position in which $10 is an **average**
salary for a starting player/pitcher or a closer. And given
that so many starters have below-average salaries, whether due
to performance, market, or youth/cba. It's amazing.
#Post#: 164856--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: craig
Date: January 18, 2014, 8:30 am
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deeg, agree, I don't think Samardz would get what Kershaw got or
the winning bidder will spend for Tanaka. But it's quite
plausible that he'd get a $20-per deal.
#Post#: 164858--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Deeg
Date: January 18, 2014, 8:44 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> deeg, agree, I don't think Samardz would get what Kershaw got
or the winning bidder will spend for Tanaka. But it's quite
plausible that he'd get a $20-per deal.
>
--- End Quote ---
We disagree on that, then. No way he gets $20 million based on
his career numbers. This market is crazy, but it's not that
crazy yet.
#Post#: 164859--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 18, 2014, 8:45 am
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Teams are spending between $6-8 million per fWAR. Samardzija
is right around a 3 fWAR player without any breakout. That puts
him between $19-24 million per year, in 2 years it will likely
be an even higher number. Chances are that in 3 years Kershaw's
deal is going to look like a steal and he'll opt out if healthy.
#Post#: 164861--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: JR
Date: January 18, 2014, 9:02 am
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Is Spellcheck wants to wait and test the market in two years .
. .
>
--- End Quote ---
If Spellcheck wants to wait and test the market in two years,
it's going to have to do better job of spelling Samardzija's
name than that.
#Post#: 164863--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Bennett
Date: January 18, 2014, 9:15 am
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Samardzija's teammates probably call him "eye chart".
#Post#: 164865--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 18, 2014, 10:13 am
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Ricketts panel per twitter
- debt is a factor in spending, but not a huge factor
- tried to buy out roof top owners, but too many different
agendas to make it happen
- sounds unlikely that they will reup with WGN
- could to the renovation in 4 years, not 5
- Ricketts will send a letter to Amtrack, because their train
schedule from downstate doesn't work with games that don't start
at 1:20, yes that was an actual question/complaint
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