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#Post#: 165604--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: January 24, 2014, 2:06 pm
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I'm embarrassed to say I haven't heard of most of the ST
invitees:
HTML http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-the-cubs--invitations-baez-bryant-20140124,0,3499638.story
#Post#: 165608--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 24, 2014, 2:59 pm
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--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> "Pretty useful pitcher" seems like damning by faint praise
when it comes to Travis Wood. He’s no Ace, but he’s shown
reason to believe he’s a good deal more than “pretty useful.”
>
> In 2013, Wood was #13 in the NL in WHIP, ahead of Arroyo, Cain
and Hamels & Lohse, and just behind Cashner. He was #12 in NL
in ERA, ahead of Latos, Teheran, Minor, Zimmerman, Burnett and
Lohse, and just behind Cashner again. Cashner by the way is a
few months older than Wood. Wood was also #16 in IP. He was
#25 in HR allowed (Samardzija, by the way was #5). Maybe his HR
total in 2013 was a fluke, but I don't see any particular reason
to assume that, given that he was a better pitcher overall,
again, after making adjustments.
>
> Even in 2012, when he was first making the adjustments under
Bosio, if he had had enough innings to qualify, he would have
been #16 in the NL in WHIP, ahead of Hudson and Arroyo.
>
> Granted, we'll know more about how real his 2013 season was
after next year, but just because he's a Cub doesn't mean his
performance should be downgraded looking forward.
>
--- End Quote ---
WHIP is antiquated. What I'm more concerned about is how is he
getting that whip. His BB% is 8.0%, is 22 worst amoung
qualified starters. He's giving up plenty of free passes. His
K% is 17.5%, also 22 worst amoung qualified starters. So most
of his outs are coming from balls in play. His fly ball% is
44.5, 3rd worst, LD% is 22.3%, third worst. His GB% is the
second lowest at 33.2%. Ground balls for a pitcher are the best
result. They often turn into outs and if they are hits, they
rarely turn into extra base hits. Fly balls are bad, because
they turn into home runs, but if they stay in the park they are
easy outs. Line drives are most likely to turn into hits. Wood
gets his low WHIP, by having a really low BABIP. If his BABIP
goes up, like it did in 2011 his ERA shoots up. If his HR/FB%
goes up like it did in 2012, his ERA goes up. It may sound
really strange, but these are things that a pitcher has the
least amount of control over. If your going to count somebody
as a core player, you'd want them to be good at things they can
control.
What is Wood is the big question. His cutter, when located,
will induce a lot of weak pop-ups. When he misses it goes a
long, long way. If Wood was willing to go for an arb buy out
and 2 years of free agency at around $11 million. That would be
a good deal for the Cubs, cause to me he's a 4ish ERA guy. If
everything clicks he can put up a low 3 ERA, if it falls apart
your looking at an ERA that might be above 5.
#Post#: 165611--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 24, 2014, 3:44 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Pendleton was coming of wRC+ of 84, 101, 60 the three seasons
before. I doubt the Braves were expecting him to take a 65-97
team to 94-68 the next year. The AAV of his contract has $2.65
million the top contract at the time he signed was $3.25 million
(Mark Davis). It was also a point where MLB salaries began to
increase a lot. He signed December 1990, by March 1992 Sandberg
had the highest AAV of $7.1 million.
>
--- End Quote ---
So what? None of that alters when it is that a rebuilding team
should make a serious dip into the FA pool, nor does it lessen
the value of the example.
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Tanaka is 25 and if his prime years aren't going to be when
the Cubs are good, it is going to be a very long decade.
>
--- End Quote ---
While that is true, since Tanaka got an opt-out clause from the
Yankees, it is safe to assume he would have also demanded the
same from the Cubs, and if he is any good he will likely
exercise his option, which would mean you are really only
talking about four years with the Cubs, and the first of those
four years would almost certainly NOT have been a year when the
Cubs will be real playoff contenders, and the 2nd year might not
even be. In other words, arguing that Tanaka's will still be in
his prime when the Cubs are good is irrelevant if those year are
not coming during the time when Tanaka will be performing under
his current contract.
#Post#: 165612--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 24, 2014, 3:46 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Cubsin link ---
>
> The bullpen will be much better....
>
--- End Quote ---
Am I wrong, or didn't we hear that exact same thing a year ago?
#Post#: 165613--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Ron
Date: January 24, 2014, 3:47 pm
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Everybody I've heard talk about Wood has said he is a better
pitcher now than when he was with the Reds - not necessarily
that he has better "stuff" but that he is a better pitcher in
how he approaches batters and in his use of pitches. He has
gotten better as a pitcher.
I do respect the value of advanced metrics, and don't doubt that
in general they are highly predictive, and your argument is
persuasive. But I do have some doubt that they are absolutely
predictive with regard to every individual pitcher, regardless
of how effective the pitcher has shown he can be in getting
batters out and not giving up runs over a significant period of
time. Wood gets more outs on balls in play in part because he's
an excellent defender, and I don't know if it's possible that he
gets more because his selection of pitches and location result
in balls not being hit as hard as they otherwise would be. Are
there advanced metrics that capture that phenomenon?
While anything is possible, it seems hyperbolic to suggest that
Wood might become a 5+ ERA pitcher, considering that he has
never had a year like that, even before his improvement. As I
said before, we'll see whether he continue to be as effective as
he was last season. But I'm not yet convinced that 2013 was a
fluke season for him.
#Post#: 165614--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: January 24, 2014, 3:50 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> At some point, game results need to be taken seriously.
>
--- End Quote ---
Nonsense.
Game results have no predictive value.
You Neanderthals who refuse to embrace advanced metrics don't
know what you are talking about.
#Post#: 165619--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: January 24, 2014, 4:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> I do respect the value of advanced metrics, and don't doubt
that in general they are highly predictive, and your argument is
persuasive. But I do have some doubt that they are absolutely
predictive with regard to every individual pitcher, regardless
of how effective the pitcher has shown he can be in getting
batters out and not giving up runs over a significant period of
time. Wood gets more outs on balls in play in part because he's
an excellent defender, and I don't know if it's possible that he
gets more because his selection of pitches and location result
in balls not being hit as hard as they otherwise would be. Are
there advanced metrics that capture that phenomenon?
>
> While anything is possible, it seems hyperbolic to suggest
that Wood might become a 5+ ERA pitcher, considering that he has
never had a year like that, even before his improvement. As I
said before, we'll see whether he continue to be as effective as
he was last season. But I'm not yet convinced that 2013 was a
fluke season for him.
>
--- End Quote ---
He has an awfully high infield fly ball percentage and that is
usually indicative of weak contact. There is batted ball
distance for hitters, but I don't know if they do the same thing
for pitchers.
A big part is his use with his cutter. It has gone from 9.5% in
2010 to 35.9% in 2013. It is a great pitch for him and he
usually located well. It is the reason that he gets a lot of
weak fly balls. He is basically a fastball/cutter pitcher it
makes up 79.5% of his pitches. His slider is next at 10.3% and
the curve/change-up have disappeared (2.1%/7.8%).
I do like Wood, I'm not somebody that wants to get rid of him.
In 2011 he had a 4.84 ERA. He was still pretty anti-homer at
6.7%, but his BABIP went .324. If his BABIP shoots up and his
HR/FB% goes up in the same year, it isn't a huge reach to see
his ERA at 5+. A lot has to go wrong with him, but since he
doesn't strike out a lot of people it could happen. I think
he's mostly a 3.80-4.30 pitcher and he might always out perform
his peripherals because of his cutter. He isn't somebody that I
would be chomping at the bit at to get signed to a big extension
though.
#Post#: 165621--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Reb
Date: January 24, 2014, 5:09 pm
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I don't see Wood keeping up the 2013 ERA. I see him probably in
the 3.70-4.00 range for the next few seasons.
But, the thing Wood has going for him is exceptional make-up.
Kind of like Ted Lilly in that respect. Doesn't give in and
seems to be able to make pitches in adverse circumstances. That
only goes so far, especially for a guy without a true breaking
ball, but the cutter is a very good pitch and I think his
toughness bodes well for being a solid rotation guy for a few
seasons.
#Post#: 165622--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: Reb
Date: January 24, 2014, 5:15 pm
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Does anybody have a general idea what what the rooftop owners in
the aggregate do in business income in a season?
As to the Cubs, I know that the contract has about 10 years to
go but sometimes a major business will do things they know will
incur legal costs/liability and just figure that into the cost
of whatever they want to do going forward. They might not admit
that but it happens.
Curious what kind of liability Cubs actually might face since
this seems to be putting the Wrigley renovation on hold at the
moment.
#Post#: 165625--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '14
DIR By: JR
Date: January 24, 2014, 5:53 pm
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While helpful, you can read way too much into metrics like that.
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